Wisetech Global Ltd (WTC)

Stock: Wisetech Global Ltd
Symbol: WTC
Exchange: ASX
Latest Price: $15.47
Date: 9 August 2018
Financial Year: 30 June 2018
Results Due: 22 August 2018

WTC was added to the ASX 200 in December 2017 and shows strong growth in revenue and earnings as well as price performance since 2016.

Wisetech Global Ltd (WTC)

We have not rated WTC as a buy signal because:

Our valuation is substantially below the current price. Assuming long-term revenue growth of 25%, while operating expenses grow at a slower rate of 23% due to economies of scale, delivers a value of $10.00 per share.

Results for the 6 months to 31 December 2017 (1H18) show declining Net Income and Free Cash Flow as a percentage of Revenue. Declining margins are the opposite of what we expect to see with economies of scale.

WTC Net Income and Free Cash Flow as % of Revenue

Free Cash Flow is also consistently lower than Net Income because a percentage of research and development costs is capitalized. While one can expect to benefit from current R&D in future years, most companies need to expend a constant percentage of Revenue on R&D in order to maintain their competitive position, especially in Software Development .

WTC looks like a great business, with strong customer retention rates, but is over-priced at present.

We will review WTC performance after FY18 results are announced on 22 August 2018.

Appen Limited (APX)

Stock: Appen Limited
Symbol: APX
Exchange: ASX

Appen was added to the ASX 200 in June 2018 and displays strong performance in both LT technical and revenue & earnings growth.

Appen Limited (APX)

Despite this, we have not added APX to our model portfolio, or issued a buy signal, because of its market position.

We are looking for companies with a competitive advantage that enables them to defend market share against competitors, without compromising profit margins.

APX competes in a crowded, technology-driven market against a vast number of competitors (over 17,500 Content Relevance and Language Resources providers, according to Jacob Simonsen at Lincoln) and is vulnerable to technology advances by competitors that could make it difficult for APX to defend its market share.