Australia: ASX 200

The ASX 200 is consolidating above primary support — between 4000 and 4150 — while the sharp fall of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of primary support would indicate a decline to 3600*. Recovery above 4150 is unlikely but would suggest another test of 4450.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 3600

Australia: GDP growth is not real

Mark Graph: Table 5 of the national accounts includes the implicit price deflators (IPD) for each term in the expenditure equation for GDP….the big deflationary item was exports….

So we get to the heart of the anomaly: largely because we exported a touch less in volume terms (in Q1 2012 compared with Q4 2011) but at significantly reduced prices, this contributed significantly to an outcome where real GDP grew significantly while nominal GDP stagnated.

via Understanding our price deflationary boom | Mark Graph.

Comment:~ So real GDP growth is not really real. The major difference between nominal GDP growth (1.2% annualized) and real GDP growth (a far more impressive 5.2% annualized) is a fall in the price of exports!

Forex: Australia – be careful what you measure

The Aussie Dollar rallied strongly off support at $0.96 against the greenback, on the back of strong GDP numbers. Expect a test of the declining trendline around $1.02. A peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, would warn of a strong primary down-trend.

Australian Dollar/USD

Be careful what you measure!

Australian Real GDP may have grown by 1.3 percent for the first quarter, but as Stephen Koukoulas points out: Nominal GDP (before adjustment for inflation) only grew by 0.3 percent. The cause of the Real GDP surge is a sharp fall in the GDP price deflator, used to adjust for inflation. Falling prices may be welcomed by the consumer but they warn of a deflationary contraction — as in 2008/9 when nominal GDP fell by 5.0 percent.

Australian GDP

In the long-term, the Australian Dollar normally follows commodity prices. At present the CRB Commodities Index is falling sharply and the Aussie is likely to follow.

CRB Commodities Index/Australian Dollar

SMSF Education: So…how much can I contribute?

SMSF Education is a free online education resource for SMSF trustees and their advisers.

SO…HOW MUCH CAN I CONTRIBUTE?

There are two types of contributions that can be made to superannuation. These are known as Concessional (pre-tax) contributions and Non-Concessional (post-tax) contributions. There are contribution caps that determine the maximum amount that can be contributed in any one year for each type of contribution.

A Concessional contribution is a contribution made to superannuation where a tax deduction has been claimed. This includes contributions such as the Superannuation Guarantee Charge (SGC), salary sacrifice and personal deductible contributions. Concessional contributions incur contributions tax of 15% upon entering superannuation. From 1 July 2012, this contributions tax increases to 30% on Concessional contributions for individuals with an income greater than $300,000.

The maximum Concessional contribution that can be made into the account of a superannuation member is dependant on their age. Currently, a member under the age of 50 is able to have contributions of up to $25,000 made to their account as a Concessional contribution in any one year. For those over age 50, the cap is $50,000. However, as of 1 July 2012, the Concessional contribution cap will be a universal $25,000 for all members regardless of age. In saying this, the Government has announced that members over age 50 will be able to have up to $50,000 (potentially $55,000 due to indexation) contributed to their accounts as a Concessional contribution from 1 July 2014 if their superannuation member balance is below $500,000.

A ‘non-concessional’ contribution is a contribution made to superannuation with after-tax dollars – where income tax has already been paid. No tax is incurred on this type of contribution upon entering superannuation.

The maximum Non-Concessional contribution that can be made in any one year is $150,000. However, members under the age of 65 have the ability to ‘bring forward’ two years’ worth of the Non-Concessional cap. This means that up to $450,000 may be contributed in any one year, with no further Non-Concessional contributions being made for the following two years. The ‘bring forward’ rule is triggered in a financial year if more than $150,000 is contributed as a Non-Concessional contribution.

Exceeding the Cap

Where a member receives Concessional contributions in excess of their relevant cap, the excess amount is subject to excess contributions tax of 31.5% and the amount in excess will then count towards their Non-Concessional cap.

For various reasons, many individuals have been incurring excess contributions tax as a result of circumstances out of their control. From the 2012 financial year, new measures in place provide certain individuals with the ability to have excess contributions refunded to them and taxed at their marginal tax rate, so as not to incur excess contributions tax. However, this is only available in limited circumstances where the excess contributions equal less than $10,000 and there are no excess contributions for an earlier financial year (excluding years prior to 2012). This option for a refund is only available once for each individual’s lifetime. It is not available in the years subsequent to a refund being claimed.

In cases where the Non-Concessional contributions cap is exceeded, excess contributions tax of 46.5% is incurred. This is after income tax has already been paid on the amount contributed.

There are some instances where 93% in tax on contributions could be payable. This occurs when the Non-Concessional contribution cap has been reached and a Concessional contribution is made, which causes the Concessional contribution cap to be exceeded. In this case, the concessional contribution will incur contributions tax of 15% and then excess contributions tax of 31.5% for exceeding the Concessional contribution cap. Because the contribution has exceeded the Concessional cap, it will count towards the Non-Concessional cap. However, because the Non-Concessional cap had already been reached, excess contributions tax of 46.5% will be payable for exceeding the Non-Concessional cap – totalling 93% in excess contributions tax.

Contribution caps for relevant years (excluding indexation):
SMSF Contributions

Ideally, all contributions should be made to your superannuation account a couple of weeks prior to the end of the financial year. The end of the tax year is a hectic time for superannuation funds. By getting your contributions in early, it should ensure that any delays in transaction or processing time will not affect your ability to claim a tax deduction in the current financial year.

Warrick Hanley
For more information, please go to www.smsfeducation.com.au

Securities Technology Monitor: Dark Trading Bad, HFT Good

“HFTs appear to assist in decreasing excessive price volatility,” [Professor Alex Frino, CEO of Capital Markets Co-operative Research Centre (CMCRC) and Professor of Finance at the University of Sydney Business School] said. “This is partly due to the way HFT algorithms identify trading opportunities – they’re built to recognise when prices are abnormally high or low, and respond in a way that naturally pushes prices back towards the middle.”

via Securities Technology Monitor: Dark Trading Bad, HFT Good.

Australia: ASX 200 at primary support

The ASX 200 is testing primary support at 3980/4000. Failure would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by downward breakout from the large ascending triangle (August to May) and reversal of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (below zero) indicates strong selling pressure.

ASX 200 Index

Forex: Australia and Canada

Falling crude oil and commodity prices are likely to depress resource-rich currencies. Canada’s Loonie found support at $0.97 but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of $0.97 is likely and would test the primary level at $0.94/0.95.

Canadian Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 0.89

The Aussie Dollar is testing primary support at $0.96/0.97. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $0.96 would offer a long-term target of $0.84*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 0.84

Australia: ASX 200 breaks triangle

The monthly chart of the ASX 200 displays a downward breakout from the ascending triangle, forming since September 2011, offering a target of the 2008 low at 3200*. Reversal of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero also suggests continuation of the primary down-trend.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3800 – ( 4400 – 3800 ) = 3200