Falling demand from China and rising inflation in Japan are both having an impact on stocks and Treasury markets. Precious metals have also suffered from the sell-off, while crude and industrial metals warn of a global contraction.
Stocks
The top 7 technology stocks all fell, led by a steep plunge in Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), two stocks with considerable exposure to China.
The Nasdaq plunged 3.7%, its second 3.0% draw-down in July confirms selling pressure signaled by declining Trend Index peaks. Lawrence MacDonald:
The NDX went 17 months without a 3.0% drawdown. To us this means a lot. Looking back 20 years, these events come in patterns and clusters, NOT isolated events. This speaks to high volatility ahead.
The S&P 500 recorded its first 2.0% draw-down in 357 trading days. Declining Trend Index peaks reflect selling pressure. Breach of support at 5400 is likely and would offer a target of 5200.
The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX) broke support at 6800, offering a target of 6600.
Declines were across the board, with both the Russell 1000 Large Cap ETF [blue] and Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF [pink] falling sharply.
Treasury Market
Two-year Treasury yields are falling in anticipation of an early rate cut by the Fed.
But 10-Year yields respected support at 4.20%, signaling a test of 4.5%.
Liquidity in financial markets is strong but rising long-term yields could come from Japanese selling in support of the Yen.
Jim Grant on the prospects for US and Japanese interest rates:
How the turntables have turned: as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan each prepare to render their respective rate decisions next week, recent events suggest a shift in the zeitgeist. Thus, former New York Fed president William Dudley took to the Bloomberg Opinion page Wednesday to lobby his former colleagues for a July cut, citing a weakening labor market along with ebbing inflationary pressures and moderating wage growth.
“I’ve long been in the ‘higher for longer’ camp. . . [but] the facts have changed, so I’ve changed my mind,” Dudley writes…..
Monetary crosswinds are swirling in the Far East. Futures assess the likelihood of a July BoJ hike from the current 0% to 0.1% range at 72%, up from 51% three weeks ago. Similarly, more than 90% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg “see the risk” that the BoJ will opt to pull the trigger, turning the page on its longstanding negative, now, zero-rates policy in the face of mounting price pressures.
To that end, core CPI grew a 2.6% annual clip in June, remaining north of the bank’s self-assigned 2% goal for the 27th consecutive month. On Friday, Tokyo’s Cabinet Office bumped its forecasted inflation rate over the fiscal year ending March 2025 to 2.8% from 2.5%.
“We expect underlying inflation to remain around 2% until early 2025, which we think will prompt the BoJ to hike rates both this month and in October,” writes Marcel Thielant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, adding that pronounced currency weakness is placing upward pressure on the price level, as evidenced by a recent pickup in the “other industrial products” CPI component.
The prospect of simultaneous Fed and BoJ policy pivots duly resonates in the currency market, as the yen has snapped higher by 5% over the past three weeks to 154 per dollar after marking a near 40-year low against the buck. Hefty outlays from the Ministry of Finance in service of propping up the yen – estimated by Reuters at $38 billion in July alone – have added oomph to the present course correction.
“This week has seen more pronounced unwinding of carry trades, underscoring the concentration of short JPY positioning that is now facing intense pressure from Ministry of Finance intervention to support the [yen],” Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac Banking Corp, commented to Bloomberg this morning. “Local politicians have become more vocal about the economic dangers from unfettered JPY weakness,” he added.
Financial Markets
Monetary easing continues, with the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index declining to -0.58% on July 19, signaling rising liquidity in financial markets.
Dollar & Gold
The Dollar Index continues to test support at 104, despite strengthening long-term Treasury yields.
Gold fell to $2,375 per ounce, signaling a test of long-term support at $2,300. Respect of $2,300 remains likely and would be a long-term bull signal for gold.
Silver fell to $28 per ounce, signaling a bear market driven by falling industrial demand. Expect a test of support at $26.
Industrial demand for silver is falling as Chinese solar manufacturers face severe overcapacity:
China should push struggling solar manufacturers to exit the market as soon as possible to reduce severe overcapacity in a sector that’s vital to the energy transition, according to a major industry group. Central and local government, financial institutions, and companies should coordinate to speed up industry consolidation, Wang Bohua, head of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said at a solar conference in Zhejiang province on Thursday. ~ Bloomberg
Crude Oil
Nymex WTI crude ticked up slightly but is unlikely to reverse its steep down-trend, headed for a test of support between $72 and $73 per barrel.
Low crude prices are likely to lead to falling inflation, increasing pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.
Industrial Metals
Copper and aluminum continue in a strong down-trend as Chinese demand falls.
Iron ore has so far respected support at $106 per tonne. The steel industry faces similar overcapacity to other industrial metals and has only survived so far by exporting steel, driving down prices in international markets.
But resistance is growing. Iron ore is likely to plunge if international markets, like India below, erect barriers to Chinese dumping.
Conclusion
Financial market liquidity is strengthening but stocks and Treasury markets are being battered by headwinds from Asia.
The Bank of Japan is expected to hike interest rates at its next meeting in response to rising inflation caused by the weakening Japanese Yen. The result is likely to be bearish for US Treasuries, driving up long-term yields.
Falling demand from China is likely to impact on revenues from Western multinationals with large exposure, leading to a correction in stocks as growth prospects fade.
The probability of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting grows increasingly likely. Inflationary pressures are declining — as crude oil plunges in response to weak global demand — and economic headwinds are rising.
Gold and silver are likely to diverge. Silver is likely to enter a bear market as industrial demand from China fades, while gold is likely to benefit from safe-haven demand as the global economy contracts.
Industrial metals are already in a bear market which is likely to worsen as international resistance to China exporting its overcapacity grows.
Acknowledgements
- Jim Grant: Yen Diagram
- Lawrence MacDonald: Nasdaq Volatility
- Michael Pettis: Chinese solar manufacturers warns about “severe overcapacity”
- Bloomberg: Chinese Solar Group Urges Faster Consolidation as Glut Deepens
- CNBC: 2-Year Treasury Yields
- Macrobusiness: Iron ore trapdoor opens
