Tag: $VIX

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S&P 500 tests 2007 high

The S&P 500 continues to find support above 1540 on the daily chart. Breakout above 1565 would signal another advance. A higher trough on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely at present but would warn of a correction. Target for the current advance is 1600*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1530 + ( 1530 – 1485 ) = 1575

VIX Volatility Index remains near its 2005 lows at 0.10. This does not offer much reassurance as volatility can rapidly spike. Breakout above the quarterly high at 0.20 would be a warning sign.
VIX Index
Bellwether transport stock Fedex dipped below $100 after an earnings disappointment. Reversal below the rising trendline at $85 would warn that the broader economy is slowing.
Fedex
The Nasdaq 100 continues to struggle with resistance at 2800. Declining relative strength against the S&P 500 illustrates how blue chips are being favored over tech stocks. Bearish divergences on both 13-week Twiggs Momentum and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warn of another correction. Reversal below the latest rising trendline would strengthen the signal. Follow-through above 2900 is unlikely at present, but would signal an advance to 3300*. Only breach of primary support at 2500 would signal a reversal.
Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

While there are structural flaws in the US economy, the market is gaining momentum and the current advance shows no signs of ending.

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S&P 500 and Europe: Likely to blow over

Question: Is the outcry in Europe going to tip the S&P 500 into a correction?

Answer: The outcome is uncertain. While there is a strong case for giving depositors and bondholders a haircut, the timing — so soon after an inconclusive Italian election — could not be worse. But let’s see what the market are saying….

Longish tail on the S&P 500 shows buying support at the close. Mild bearish divergence (mild because TMF has leveled out rather than falling sharply) on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. We are likely to see retracement to the first line of support — at the previous high of 1525/1530 — but only breach of this level and the rising trendline would warn of a correction. Target for the current advance is 1600*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1525 + ( 1525 – 1475 ) = 1575

VIX Volatility Index remains low — near its 2005 lows at 0.10. Breakout above 0.20 would be a warn of rising uncertainty.
VIX Index
The FTSE 100 exhibits an even longer tail, but bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow also indicates medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below the latest rising trendline (6400) would warn of a correction, while breakout above 6550 would continue the advance to 6800*.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 6000 ) = 6800

The DAX showed even greater resilience, closing back above 8000. Follow-through above 8100 would signal a fresh primary advance. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.
DAX Index

Conclusion

There is bound to be some turbulence but markets are showing resilience and the storm is likely to blow over.

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S&P 500 tests 2007 high

Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken through its previous high at 14,000. Long-term (13-week) Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates strong buying pressure.
S&P 500 Index
Bellwether transport stock Fedex breakout above $100 signals rising economic activity.
Fedex

The S&P 500 is testing its 2007 high at 1550. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Reversal below the latest trendline is unlikely at present but would warn of a correction. Target for the current advance is 1600*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1475 + ( 1475 – 1350 ) = 1600

VIX Volatility Index is headed for its 2005 lows at 0.10. While this coincided with the start of a ($SPX) bull market in 1995, it also occurred just before the peak in 2007; so does not offer much reassurance. Breakout above the quarterly high at 0.20 would be a warning sign.
VIX Index
The Nasdaq 100 broke resistance at 2800 despite bearish divergences on both 13-week Twiggs Momentum and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Reversal below the latest rising trendline would warn of a correction, while follow-through above 2900 would signal an advance to 3300*. Only breach of primary support at 2500 would signal a reversal.
Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

Rising debt indicates consumers are once again spending. While there are still structural flaws in the US economy, the market is gaining momentum and the current advance shows no signs of ending.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq selling pressure

The S&P 500 is oscillating between 1485 and 1530. I avoided using the word “consolidating” because that implies a degree of calm. Far from it. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 1485 and the rising trendline would indicate a correction. Breakout above 1530 is less likely but would offer a target of 1575*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1530 + ( 1530 – 1485 ) = 1575

On the monthly chart we can see that a correction below the secondary trendline would target primary support and the primary trendline between 1350 and 1400. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate continuation of the up-trend, while retreat below zero would suggest a primary reversal.
S&P 500 Index
The VIX Volatility Index remains close to recent lows at 0.15. This does not provide much long-term reassurance: the VIX was at similar levels in May 2008. Breakout above the recent high at 0.20 would be a warning sign.
VIX Index
The Nasdaq 100 displays a bearish divergence on both 63-day Twiggs Momentum and long-term (13-week) Twiggs Money Flow. Reversal below the rising trendline would strengthen the signal. While breach of primary support at 2500 would signal a reversal.
Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

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