Tag: Twiggs Money Flow

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China and South Korea

The Shanghai Composite Index is testing support at the 2010 low of 2350. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Failure of support is likely and would offer a long-term target of 1800*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 – ( 3000 – 2400 ) = 1800

Hang Seng Index rallied off support at 16000 and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates short/medium-term buying pressure. Expect a rally to test 19000, but the primary trend remains down and respect of resistance would indicate another test of 16000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 19 – ( 22 – 19 ) = 16

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is headed for a test of its upper trend channel. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests a bear market rally. Expect another test of 1900. But the primary trend remains down and failure of support at 1650 would warn of a decline to 1500*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1700 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1500

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India Sensex and Singapore STI

Bullish divergence on India’s SENSEX 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests a double bottom reversal. Breakout above 17200 would confirm, signaling a bear market rally with a target of 18600*. Note that the primary down-trend would remain downward.

SENSEX

* Target calculation: 17200 + ( 17200 – 15800 ) = 18600

Singapore’s Straits Times Index recovered above short-term resistance at 2650 after a sharp fall over several weeks. We could see a bear market rally to 2900, but the primary trend, as signaled by declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, remains in a strong down-trend.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2700 – ( 2900 – 2700 ) = 2500

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DJ Asia update

Dow Jones India 30 Titans index displays a bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, suggesting reversal to an up-trend. Breakout above 166 would complete a double bottom.

Dow Jones India 30 Titans

Dow Jones Singapore Index advanced cautiously towards the first line of resistance at 218. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow holding below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect the primary down-trend to continue. Reversal below 202 would confirm.

Dow Jones Singapore

Japan is closed but South Korean buyers also displayed caution with narrow gains while 21-day Twiggs Money Flow again holds below zero.

Dow Jones South Korea

Dow Jones Shanghai index edged lower after resuming trading Monday. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong selling pressure.

Dow Jones Shanghai

Dow Jones HongKong index formed a doji star indicating hesitancy. Reversal below 340 would warn of a down-swing to 300. 63-Day Momentum declining below zero suggests a strong down-trend.

Dow Jones HongKong

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FTSE 100 buyers scarce

The FTSE 100 index encountered resistance at 5400. Low volume indicates that buyers were scarce and another test of support at 5000 is likely. We are in a primary down-trend and failure of support would signal a decline to 4400*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 5600 – 5000 ) = 4400

The DAX index is starting to rally on the weekly chart, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term buying pressure. Expect a test of 6000, but again we are in a primary down-trend and another test of 5000 is likely. Failure of support would signal a decline to 4000*.

German DAX Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000

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TSX 60 finds support

Canada’s TSX 60 index found support between 620 and 650. A rally to test resistance at 730 is indicated, but the primary trend is down and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal selling pressure. Reversal below 650 would warn of a decline to 580*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580

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NASDAQ bullish divergence

NASDAQ 100 index respected primary support at 2040 before rallying strongly on the weekly chart. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 2340 would complete a double bottom. Reversal below 2000 is less likely, but would warn of a decline to 1700*. A word of caution: we are in a highly volatile market — do not act on signals without confirmation from other indexes.

NASDAQ 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2300 – 2000 ) = 1700

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Fedex reflects slowing economy

A 30 percent decline on the Fedex weekly chart reflects the slowing rate of economic activity. Recovery above resistance at $70 suggests another bear market rally, but the primary trend is down. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, below zero, indicates long-term selling pressure.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 70 – (80 – 70 ) = 60

The weekly chart of Deutsche Post AG indicates similar weakness in Europe. We may see a rally test resistance at €11.00 but the primary trend is down and reversal below €9.00 would offer a target of €7.00*.

Deutsche Post DHL

* Target calculation: 9 – ( 11 – 9 ) = 7

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One down five to go

I say this rather flippantly as we are in the middle of a bear market, and I do not believe we are ready, but a reader asked what it would take to signal a bull market. My answer: three decent blue candles on the weekly chart followed by a correction of at least two red candles that respects the preceding low. The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index displays a blue candle with a long tail, signaling buying support. That would qualify as candle #1.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1250 – 1100 ) = 950

There is no supporting divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow to signal a change in the underlying selling pressure. Reversal to an up-trend is unlikely but would take a rally of at least 3 blue candles to break resistance at 1250 followed by a correction that finishes above 1100 — and re-crosses 1250. What is more likely is a failed attempt or false break at 1250 followed by penetration of support at 1100, signaling a decline to 1000/950*.

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ASX

The ASX 200 recovered slightly after a weak opening on Tuesday. Expect another test of 4000 but the index looks destined to continue in the lower half of its trend channel, with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (holding below zero) warning of medium-term selling pressure. Target for the decline is 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500

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HK and China weaken

The Hang Seng index is falling steeply, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warning of selling pressure. Target for the current-down-swing is 16000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 19 – ( 22 – 19 ) = 16

The Shanghai Exchange is closed for Chung Yeung Festival, but the Shanghai Composite Index was testing support at 2350 on Friday. Failure of support would offer a long-term target of 1800*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 – ( 3000 – 2400 ) = 1800

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