Twiggs Money Flow Archives - Page 4 of 10

November 20, 2011

Europe: breach of medium-term support would signal decline

Italy’s MIB index is testing medium-term support at 15000 on the weekly chart. Failure — and respect of the descending trendline — would warn of another decline, with a target of 9000*. Breach of primary support at 13000 would confirm.

FTSE MIB Index

* Target calculation: 13 − ( 17 − 13 ) = 9

France’s CAC-40 index is similarly testing support at 3000. Breach of support would warn of another decline — as would reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero. Failure of primary support at 2700 would offer a target of 2000*.

CAC-40 Index

* Target calculation: 2700 – ( 3400 − 2700 ) = 2000

The DAX is also testing medium-term support. Reversal below 5600 would warn of another test of primary support at 5000. Failure of 5000 would offer a target of 3600*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6400 − 5000 ) = 3600

Even the FTSE 100 index is testing medium-term support. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow looks stronger than its European neighbors, but reversal below zero would warn of a further decline. Breach of medium-term support at 5350 would warn of a test of primary support at 4800.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 4800 – ( 5600 − 4800 ) = 4000

November 20, 2011

Nasdaq, Dow warn of correction

The NASDAQ 100 index broke support at 2300 on the weekly chart, warning of a correction to test primary support at 2000. A large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow now warns of a primary down-trend; reversal below zero would strengthen the signal. Failure of support at 2000 would confirm.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2400 – 2000 ) = 1600

Dow Jones Industrial Average broke out below its recent pennant, warning of another test of primary support at 10600. Breach of support at 11600 would confirm the signal. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below its recent lows (-4%) would complete an “iceberg” — with the indicator just peaking above the zero line — indicating a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 10600 – ( 12200 – 10600 ) = 9000

November 18, 2011

S&P 500 approaches tipping point

The S&P 500 index broke downwards from its recent pennant, counter to normal bullish expectations, and is testing medium-term support at 1200. Failure of support would test primary support at 1100. Respect of support is less likely, but would suggest a rally to 1300. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow cross below the zero line would indicate rising selling pressure.

S&P 500 Index

The weekly chart better illustrates the breakout above 1200 followed by several tests of the new support level. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would be a strong bear signal, warning of continuation of the primary down-trend — as would failure of support at 1200.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900

Comparing to the 2008 weekly chart, there was a similar break below 1400 in January followed by several months of indecision before a false recovery above 1400 in May. Reversal below 1400 precipitated a major sell-off, with the index falling 50% over the next 9 months. If we look (above) at the current chart, there was a similar fall below 1250, several months of indecision before “recovery” above 1200/1250. Reversal below 1200 would provide a similar bear warning to 2008 — as would a 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero.

S&P 500 Index 2008 Weekly Chart

There is no guarantee that stocks will follow the same path as in 2008, but reversal below 1200 would greatly increase the probability of another primary decline — with a target of 900*.

November 17, 2011

South Africa: JSE threatens breakout

The JSE Overall Index completed a similar reversal to the Brazilian Bovespa, with a break above 31500. We can now see a similar ascending triangle below 33000. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a fresh advance to 37000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow confirms buying pressure.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 33 + ( 33 – 29 ) = 37

November 17, 2011

Brazil: Bovespa trend reversal

The Bovespa Index broke its descending trendline and resistance at 58000 to complete a classic Dow reversal. A higher trough on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying support. Consolidation below 60000 has formed a bullish ascending triangle; upward breakout is likely and would confirm a target of 70000.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 60 + ( 60 – 50 ) = 70

November 15, 2011

DJ Europe warns of selling pressure

Dow Jones Europe Index is testing medium-term support at 230. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Failure of support would test the primary level at 210 — and breach of primary support would signal another decline, with a target of 160*.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – ( 260 – 210 ) = 160

November 14, 2011

Asian markets

The Shanghai Composite Index reflects China’s controlled slow-down, edging lower with intermittent bear market rallies. The index is currently testing the descending (secondary) trendline at 2500. Penetration would offer a target of 2650 but would not indicate that the primary down-trend is over. Failure of support at 2300/2350 remains more likely and would offer a target of 2000.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2300 – ( 2600 – 2300 ) = 2000

HongKong’s Hang Seng Index is headed for a test of the (primary) descending trendline at 21000; breakout above 20000 would confirm. The primary trend remains downward, however, and respect of the trendline would suggest another test of 16000.

Hang Seng Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is ranging between 8400 and 9100. Breakout would indicate future trend direction.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8400 – ( 9000 – 8400 ) = 7800

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index continues to reflect buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Follow-through above recent highs would indicate a strong bear rally, but the primary trend remains downward.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000

November 14, 2011April 18, 2024

ASX 200 runs into resistance

The ASX 200 encountered selling pressure at 4350, as indicated by the tall shadow (or “wick”) on Monday’s candle. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow also indicates medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support at 4150 would signal another test of primary support at 3850. Upward breakout is less likely but would offer a target of 4850*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4350 + ( 4350 – 3850 ) = 4850

November 14, 2011

India & Singapore

The BSE Sensex found support at 17000, rallying to 17300 Monday. Breakout above 18000 would offer a target of 19000 — and breach of the descending trendline would warn that the primary down-trend is weakening. Reversal below 17000 remains as likely, however, and would test primary support at 16000. Twiggs Money Flow oscillating close to zero indicates uncertainty.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18 + ( 18 – 17 ) = 19

Singapore’s Straits Times Index found medium-term support at 2750 last week before rallying to 2840 Monday. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero continues to indicate a primary down-trend. Failure of support at 2750 would test primary support at 2500, while breakout above 2900 would offer a target of 3200*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

November 14, 2011

Canada TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 index is consolidating between 680 and 720. Upward breakout would penetrate the descending trendline, indicating that the primary down-trend is weakening. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough that respects the zero line would signal a primary up-trend. Reversal below 680, however, would warn of another test of primary support at 620.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 680 ) = 760