The percentage of containers shipped empty from the Port of Los Angeles was 43.8% (or 1.1 million twenty-foot units) for the 8 months ending February 2012. Incoming containers received empty were a mere 3.6%. The net 40.2% of incoming containers returned empty to their port of destination reflects the trade disadvantage suffered by US manufacturers relative to their Asian competitors; primarily from artificial (suppressed) exchange rates, state subsidy of export industries and protectionism in local markets. While the figures remain high, they show a steady down-trend since 2006. But it will take another 12 years at the current rate of decline for traffic to reach parity, by which time many industries will have suffered irreparable harm.
Shippers attempt to fill containers on their return journey, even at super-low rates, in order to offset the cost of completing the round-trip. Empty containers indicate failure to locate manufactured goods that can compete in export markets. This affects not only the shipper, but the entire economy. You see, those containers leaving the West Coast are not really empty. They contain something far more valuable than the goods being imported. They contain manufacturing jobs — and the infrastructure, skills and know-how to support them.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.