thermal coal Archives - the patient investor %

July 31, 2012

Beijing pushes to improve air pollution – FT.com

Not a good sign for thermal coal prices (and miners):

In a multibillion dollar bid to clean up air pollution, Beijing is shutting down its coal-fired plants and replacing them with natural gas-fuelled power stations by the end of next year.

via Beijing pushes to improve air pollution – FT.com.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

July 26, 2012

Terms of trade taking a hammering | | MacroBusiness

As predicted, coking coal is now breaking down in sympathy with iron ore. …..That’s 10% in two weeks. Thermal coal is down 10% in two months. Ore is now down over 20% in two months. These three commodities make up 50% of the [Australian] terms of trade.

via Terms of trade taking a hammering | | MacroBusiness.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 24, 2012

Free steak knives with your boom! | | MacroBusiness

Houses and Holes: Thermal coal is already at a price that is uneconomic for many mines and if iron ore were to settle in the $110 region, which is my call, then the margins for many an iron ore hopeful are looking suddenly thin too. If this keeps up for a few months then the next phase of the boom for Australia is pulled capex.

via Free steak knives with your boom! | | MacroBusiness.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 17, 2012

The future of natural gas – an interview with Raymond Learsy – On Line Opinion

Raymond Learsy: Let me show you this. It is from a study that MIT made ….. it goes into a great deal of detail that natural gas will result in demand reduction and displacement of coal-fired power by a gas-fired generation. And because of its more limited CO2 emissions further de-carbonization of the energy sector will be required and natural gas provides a cost effective bridge to such a low carbon future. In other words, natural gas, the way it’s structured, it’s enormous availability (we are finding more and more of it since these articles have been written), and it’s extraordinary low cost, present a very real danger to other forms of hydrocarbons…..At $2.50 an MMBtu, the amount of energy that is delivered by that quotient of natural gas, the price of oil would have to be around fifteen dollars a barrel.

via The future of natural gas – an interview with Raymond Learsy – On Line Opinion – 13/6/2012.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 14, 2011

Bulk trouble – macrobusiness.com.au

These three commodities [thermal coal, coking coal and iron ore] make up half of Australia’s terms of trade. The first few months of next year are not going to be kind to the TOT. Not kind at all.

via Bulk trouble – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

Thermal coal:

Thermal Coal

Coking coal:

Coking Coal

Iron ore:

Coking Coal