The United States Is Not Europe and Texas Ain't France

Extract from remarks by Richard W. Fisher, President of the Dallas Fed, before the Cato Institute:

….Under both Republican and Democratic leadership, we did what was economically sensible. The result was a long-lived expansion. But it ended in tears. Success led to complacency; complacency led to a tolerance and even encouragement of excess. We spent more than we could afford; our government—Republicans and Democrats alike—continued, at an accelerated pace, down the path of promising more in social programs and other spending programs than we could sustain. And on the regulatory front, we turned a collective blind eye to economic malpractice, resulting in the spectacular failure of Enron and culminating with the collapse of megabanks for which even a cursory glance at their balance sheets would have revealed, in the words of one of my colleagues, “nothing on the right was right and nothing on the left was left.”…….

via The United States Is Not Europe and Texas Ain’t France: America as the Thoroughbred Economy – Dallas Fed.

US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture

Very negative pictures can be painted on the outcomes of the European sovereign debt crisis. Other negatives can point to more deteriorating factors in the United States, such as the weak housing market and the high unemployment rate. In our view, all of these factors are known. They have been established for some time. They have been mixed into the pricing expectations in markets. In essence, they are “old news”.

via US Stock Market: Bulls vs. Bears; Historians vs. Risk Takers? | The Big Picture.

I have heard this often of late: “all of these risks are already priced into the market”. Isn’t that the same old Efficient Market Hypothesis that failed so spectacularly? The market will price the risk, but there is no guarantee that the risk is correctly calculated. Look no further than June 2007 to May 2008 for an example of how the market priced risk at the start of the sub-prime crisis.