Tag: Straits Times Index

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India & Singapore

India’s Sensex is testing support at 16500 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Recovery above 17500 would signal the start of a fresh primary advance. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support at 16500 would test the band of primary support above 15000.

BSE Sensex Index

The Nifty is similarly testing support at 5000. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns that the primary down-trend will continue, but recovery above the descending trendline at 5200 would indicate that the correction is over.

NSE Nifty Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell sharply to test medium-term support at 2900. Failure would indicate a correction to the rising trendline. Respect of support, especially if strengthened by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero, would signal the start of a fresh primary advance.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

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India and Singapore bullish

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 18000, while a sharply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong (medium-term) buying support. Breakout would offer a target of 21000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

NSE/S&P Nifty Index is similarly testing resistance at 5400. Target for a breakout would be 6200*.

NSE/S&P Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200

The Singapore Straits Times index has broken through resistance at 2900. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but target for the advance is 3200*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

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India & Singapore retreat

India’s NIFTY index encountered resistance at 5200. Respect of the upper trend channel — and 63-day Twiggs Momentum respecting the zero line (from below) — would suggest a down-swing to test the lower trend channel.

NSE/S&P Nifty Index

The BSE Sensex also retreated from its upper trend channel but rising 13-week Twiggs Money indicates buying pressure. Follow-through above the recent high at 17250 would signal declining momentum — and that a base is forming.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index also retreated, but from resistance at 2900. Follow-through above the recent high would confirm the higher trough and the start of a primary up-trend. Target for the initial advance is 3200*. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 2600.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

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Singapore & Korea

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is establishing a base between 2600 and 2900. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns that the down-trend is weakening. Breakout above 2900 would signal a primary advance to 3200*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is headed for a test of resistance at 1920. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 2150*, but bearish divergence warns of medium-term selling pressure. It advisable to wait for retracement to respect the new support level, confirming the breakout.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1650 ) = 2150

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Asia: Shanghai weakens but India displays support

China’s Shanghai Composite index has been edging lower since breaking support at 2400. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum, declining below zero, confirms a primary down-trend. Expect a test of the 2008 low at 1700 in the months ahead.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 – ( 3200 – 2400 ) = 1600

India’s Sensex Index broke support at 16000 but then retraced to test the new resistance level. An encouraging bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow shows buying pressure. Breakout above 16000 would indicate a rally to 18000. Respect of resistance, however, would confirm the down-swing to 14000*.


BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 – 16 ) = 14

Singapore’s Straits Times Index follows a similar course to India. Recovery above 2900 would signal a (primary trend) reversal.

Singapore Straits Times Index


Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index faces similar resistance at 20000. Respect would indicate another test of 16000, while breakout would signal a reversal.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index


The weekly chart shows Japan’s Nikkei 225 index on a similar path to Shanghai — headed for a test of its 2008/9 lows. Failure of medium-term support at 8200 would strengthen the signal. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9 – ( 11 – 9 ) = 7

South Korea’s Seoul Composite index is testing resistance at 1920 but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 1800 would suggest another test of support at 1650. Upward breakout is unlikely but would indicate a (primary trend) reversal.

Seoul Composite Index

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India NIFTY and Singapore Straits Times Index

India’s NIFTY index continues its primary down-trend, breaking support at 4700 on the weekly chart. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero confirms the down-trend. Target for the primary decline is 4000*.

NSE NIFTY Index

* Target calculation: 4700 – (5400 – 4700 ) = 4000

The Straits Times Index also shows 63-day Twiggs Momentum declining below zero, suggesting a primary down-trend. Respect of the descending trendline on the weekly chart strengthens the signal.  Breakout below primary support at 2500 would offer a target of 2100*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

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India warns of primary decline, Singapore may follow

India’s SENSEX broke through support at 15800/16000, signaling a primary decline to 14000*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero confirms strong selling pressure. The index later recovered above 16000 Monday; we will have to wait to see whether the new support level holds.

BSE SENSEX Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 – 16 ) =14

The monthly chart shows Singapore’s Straits Times Index headed for a test of primary support at 2500. Long-term bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend. Failure of support would signal a primary decline to 2100*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

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Singapore Straits Times Index & Indian Sensex

The Straits Times Index broke through 2700, warning of another primary down-swing. The decline of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a primary down-trend. Target for the initial down-swing is 2100*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

India’s BSE Sensex Index broke the band of primary support at 15800 to 16000, warning of a decline to 14000*. Repeated peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicate a strong primary down-trend.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 – 16 ) = 14

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India & Singapore

The BSE Sensex is headed for a test of primary support at 16000/15800. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of further selling pressure. Failure of primary support would offer a target of 14000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 − 16 ) = 14

Westpac’s monthly Fearful Symmetry chronicle on the Indian economy makes an interesting point:

“The reality is that while India is an internally focused and investment-led economy — thus producing a low-beta response to swings in global growth — the financing of investment, at the margin, must come from abroad, so it is highly vulnerable to downswings that incorporate or are driven by negative financial shocks. Put simply, in India a slowdown in the global economy is felt principally through the hardening of its external financing constraint. That is in contrast to the majority of its East Asian (surplus) neighbours, where global shocks are primarily transmitted via an export-led deceleration in aggregate demand, or its non-China BRIC peers, where swings in commodity prices are the key variable.”

Given that almost half of foreign bank funding is sourced from Europe, expect a significant tightening of external finance and hence domestic investment.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is headed for medium-term support at 2700. Failure of 2700 would indicate a test of primary support at 2500. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero warns of a strong primary down-trend.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 − 2500 ) = 2100

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India & Singapore

The BSE Sensex is testing resistance at 17000. Breakout would signal a bear market rally to test the descending trendline. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support.

SENSEX

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 17.5 – 16 ) = 14.5

The Singapore Straits Times Index also reflects a bear market rally. Respect of resistance at 2900 would warn of another down-swing — as would a 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

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