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March 19, 2012

EconoMonitor » All Feasts Must Come to an End: China’s Debt & Investment Fuelled Growth

Satyajit Das: New lending by Chinese banks in 2009 and 2010 was around 40% of GDP. New bank loans in 2009 and 2010 totalled around $1.1-1.4 trillion, an increase from $740 billion in 2008. Total outstanding loans in the economy have jumped by nearly 50 per cent over the past two years.

Around 90% of this lending was directed towards investment in building, plant, machinery and infrastructure by State Owned Enterprises (“SOE”). In 2010, China allocated over $2.6 trillion to investment expenditure – the highest proportion of GDP of any major economy in the world. According to the World Bank, almost all of China’s growth since 2008 has come from “government influenced expenditure”.

via EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » All Feasts Must Come to an End: China’s Debt & Investment Fuelled Growth, Part 1.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

February 23, 2012

New Push for Reform in China – WSJ.com

An exclusive preview of an economic report on China, prepared by the World Bank and government insiders considered to have the ear of the nation’s leaders, offers a surprising prescription: China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms, including scaling back its vast state-owned enterprises and making them operate more like commercial firms.

……The report warns that China’s growth is in danger of decelerating rapidly and without much warning. That is what has occurred with other highflying developing countries, such as Brazil and Mexico, once they reached a certain income level, a phenomenon that economists call the “middle-income trap.” A sharp slowdown could deepen problems in the Chinese banking sector and elsewhere, the report warns, and could prompt a crisis, according to those involved with the project.

via New Push for Reform in China – WSJ.com.

November 26, 2011

Hormats Argues for ‘Competitive Neutrality’ Between U.S., China Firms – China Real Time Report – WSJ

U.S. Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats:

“What I am saying quite simply is that the U.S. is not passing judgment on whether or not China chooses to have state owned enterprises. Our concern is that to the extent they do, those SOEs should not receive benefits (e.g., preferred financing, exemption from anti-monopoly laws, generous export credits, etc) that put them at an artificial competitive advantage vis a vis private enterprises — of the U.S. or indeed any other country.

And I did not make the term ‘competitive neutrality’ up. This broad theme is incorporated in the (proposed trade deal called the) Trans Pacific Partnership and more specifically in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development work.

My point is not to challenge the Chinese SOE model, it is to say that SOEs should operate within a system of global rules and norms, and that Chinese government support measures should not distort competition within that system….”

via Hormats Argues for ‘Competitive Neutrality’ Between U.S., China Firms – China Real Time Report – WSJ.