Tag: Spot Silver

Posted on

Strong Dollar warns of Gold weakness

Falling crude prices have helped to strengthen the Dollar. Nymex Light Crude found support at $50/barrel, helped by an OPEC production cut, but the organization does not have the sway it once had. A test of $45/barrel is likely.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

The Dollar Index closed above 97, signaling an advance to 100 in the medium-term (next quarter). Penetration of the descending trendline on the Trend Index would strengthen the signal.

Dollar Index

Gold is likely to test support at $1180/ounce. Breach would warn of a decline to $1050/ounce (the 2015 low).

Spot Gold in USD

Silver is testing long-term support at $14/ounce. Breach would offer a target of $10 but would also warn of similar weakness for Gold.

Spot Silver in USD

The All Ordinaries Gold Index is consolidating between 4500 and 5500, buoyed by a weaker Australian Dollar. But Gold is more volatile than the Aussie Dollar and further weakness is expected. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure. Breach of 4500 would signal a primary decline.

Gold in Australian Dollars

Posted on

Falling Crude, stronger Dollar warn of Gold weakness

Nymex Light Crude is falling steeply. Breakout below the trend channel warns of reversal to a primary down-trend. Breach of support at $55/barrel would indicate a test of $45/barrel.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

Falling crude prices are likely to strengthen the Dollar. Dollar Index breakout above 100 would signal another primary advance. Penetration of the descending trendline on the Trend Index would also suggest another long-term advance.

Dollar Index

Falling crude prices and a strengthening Dollar are likely to weaken demand for Gold. Reversal below $1150 would signal a decline to $1050/ounce (the 2015 low).

Spot Gold in USD

Silver is testing primary support at $14/ounce. Breach would offer a target of $10 but would also warn of a primary down-trend for Gold.

Spot Silver in USD

A weakening Australian Dollar has so far offset the decline in the Dollar price of Gold. The chart below, however, shows strong resistance at $A 1750 to $A 1800. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure and penetration of the rising trendline on the price chart would threaten another test of LT support at $A 1350. Local gold miners would be likely to follow.

Gold in Australian Dollars

Posted on

Gold rally expected to falter as Dollar strengthens

China’s Yuan continues to weaken while the Dollar index strengthens. Follow-through above 97 would signal another primary advance.

Dollar Index

A strengthening Dollar would weaken demand for Gold. The bear rally is likely to meet stubborn resistance at $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 would warn of a decline to the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The monthly chart of Spot Silver also shows a strong down-trend, testing primary support at $13.50/ounce.

Spot Silver

Crude oil is also showing signs of weakness, with a bearish divergence on the Trend Index. Breach of support at $65/barrel would warn of a primary down-trend.

Nymex Light Crude

In the long-term, gold and oil tend to rise and fall together.

Posted on

Silver warns of further Gold weakness

Precious metals tend to trend or consolidate together, driven by similar investor motives. Spot silver is testing primary support at $14 per ounce, while a Trend Index peak at zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a primary down-trend.

Spot Gold in USD

Gold is still testing support at $1200/ounce but Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure. Respect of the descending trendline indicates another decline with a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce, similar to silver.

Spot Gold in USD

Currencies

The Yuan continues to test support at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

The Dollar Index continues to test support at 95, despite the weak Yuan. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure but long tails indicate support. Breach of support at 95 is uncertain but would signal a correction to test 91 — boosting demand for gold.

Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar continues a strong down-trend, with Trend Index peaks below zero warning of selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2015/2016 low at 70 US cents.

Australian Dollar/USD

Gold Stocks

The falling Aussie Dollar has partially cushioned local gold stocks from weaker gold prices but gold is more volatile than the Dollar. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) is expected to break support at 4550, offering a long-term target of 4000/4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Posted on

No Silver lining for Gold stocks

A long-term chart shows Silver broke support at $16/ounce and is headed for a test of its 2015 low at $14.

Spot Silver in USD

Silver is more volatile but often indicates, ahead of Gold, the direction of the two precious metals. At present that suggests Gold is likely to test its 2015 low of $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

China’s Yuan continues to fall against the US Dollar.

CNY/USD

The Dollar Index followed through after breaking resistance at 95. Retracement to test the new support level is now unlikely unless China intervenes to support the Yuan. Focus shifts to the long-term target of 103.

Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar broke support at 73 US cents, the Trend Index peak below zero warning of a strong decline. This may cushion local gold miners, to some extent, from the falling US Dollar price but Gold is more volatile.

Australian Dollar/USD

The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) continues to test support at 4900. Breach is likely and would offer a long-term target of 4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Not a good time to buy Gold stocks.

Posted on

Gold responds to crude strength and Dollar support

The Dollar Index is testing primary support between 92 and 93. Breach of support would offer a long-term target between 83 and 84* — a bullish sign for gold.

Dollar Index

*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83

Crude continues to test resistance at $50/barrel. Respect would indicate another test of the lower trend channel, around $40/barrel, continuing the primary down-trend. Follow-through above $50 would suggest that a bottom has formed and the next correction is likely to be higher than the last low at $42.

Nymex Light Crude

Gold retraced to test support at $1250/ounce — in line with crude strength and Dollar support. Respect of support is more likely and would indicate another test of $1300. Reversal below $1250 is unlikely but would warn of another test of primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

Silver also retraced and is likely to test primary support at $15.50. Rising Twiggs Trend Index suggests that another test of resistance at $17 remains likely. Breakout above $17 would be bullish for gold.

Spot Silver

Posted on

Gold rallies as Crude rises and Dollar falls

The Dollar Index is testing primary support between 92 and 93; bullish for gold. Breach of support would offer a long-term target between 83 and 84*.

Dollar Index

*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83

Crude rallied strongly this week, with Nymex light crude testing its upper trend channel at $50/barrel. Respect would indicate another test of the lower trend channel, around $40/barrel, continuing the primary down-trend. Follow-through above $50 would suggest that a bottom has formed and the next correction is unlikely to reach the last low of $42.

Nymex Light Crude

Gold followed through above $1260 after a brief retracement, indicating another test of $1300. Reversal below $1250 is unlikely but would be a bearish sign, warning of another test of primary support.

Spot Gold

The accompanying rally in Silver is testing the descending trendline at $17/ounce. Penetration would suggest that a bottom is forming and the primary down-trend is near an end; a bullish sign for gold.

Spot Silver

Posted on

Gold rallies as Dollar plunges

The Dollar Index is in a primary down-trend. Its decline accelerated in the last week, headed for the next level of primary support between 92 and 93, which is bullish for gold.

Dollar Index

Falling crude prices, however, have a bearish influence on gold. Nymex light crude recently staged a rally but ran into resistance at $47.50/barrel. Expect another decline to test the lower trend channel at $42, continuing the primary down-trend.

Nymex Light Crude

Gold broke resistance at $1250/ounce. Follow-through above $1260 would signal another test of resistance at $1300. Reversal below $1250, on the other hand, would be a bearish sign.

Spot Gold

Silver rallied off primary support at $15.50/ounce but only a break above the descending trendline (at $17/ounce) would flag a reversal in the primary down-trend.

Spot Silver

Posted on

Gold tests resolve

The Dollar Index is in a primary down-trend. Short-term support is unlikely to hold. The long-term target is the 2016 low between 92 and 93.

Dollar Index

Silver often acts as a lead indicator gold. Testing primary support at $15.50/15.60 per ounce, breach would warn of a primary down-trend.

Silver

I have been bullish on gold since the election of Donald Trump as president. My comment last week was:

“Let me put it this way: recovery of gold above $1250 would not be a surprise. And would test resistance at $1300….”

Gold is trending lower, breach of $1215 warning of a test of primary support at $1200.

From a fundamental viewpoint, I can find no strong argument to support a lower gold price:

So I remain bullish on the long-term outlook for gold. But a peak below zero on Twiggs Trend Index warns of weakness. Breach of primary support at $1200 would mean that all bets are off.

Spot Gold

Posted on

Weak Dollar strengthens gold outlook

The Dollar Index broke support at 100 despite strengthening interest rates, warning of a down-trend. Target for a decline would be the May 2016 low of 93.

Dollar Index

China has burned through a trillion dollars of foreign reserves in the last 3 years, attempting to support the yuan. I believe the sell-off is unlikely to abate and plays a major part in the Dollar’s weakness.

China: Foreign Reserves

A falling Dollar would strengthen demand for gold. Spot Gold is retracing from resistance at $1300/ounce and is likely to find support at $1240/$1250. Respect of support would suggest another advance; confirmed if gold breaks $1300.

Spot Gold

Spot Silver displays a more bearish medium-term outlook, however, with a stronger correction testing support at $17.00/ounce. Breach of support would test the primary level at $15.65 and warn of further gold weakness.

Spot Silver

Powered by WordPress / WordPress Maintenance Service By Website Helper