The Dollar is again testing resistance at 97.50, threatening a breakout.
Spot Gold is testing medium-term support at $1280/ounce. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. Breach of $1280 would offer a target of primary support at $1180.
Silver is likewise testing medium-term support at $15/ounce, warning of a decline to $14.
Spot Gold retreated from resistance at $1350/ounce. Penetration of the rising trendline warns of another correction. The immediate target is support at $1250.
Silver is also retreating. Breach of $15/ounce would strengthen the bear signal.
Crude oil has rallied since the start of the year but the primary trend is down and lower peaks on the trend index warn of further selling pressure. Breach of medium-term support at $52 would signal another test of primary support at $42 which would be bullish for the Dollar.
The Dollar is gradually strengthening. Breakout of the Dollar Index above its current range of 95.50 to 97.50 would be bearish for gold.
The Aussie Dollar held steady, while the All Ordinaries Gold Index retreated from its recent high above 6000. Expect a test of new support at 5400.
Falling crude prices have helped to strengthen the Dollar. Nymex Light Crude found support at $50/barrel, helped by an OPEC production cut, but the organization does not have the sway it once had. A test of $45/barrel is likely.
The Dollar Index closed above 97, signaling an advance to 100 in the medium-term (next quarter). Penetration of the descending trendline on the Trend Index would strengthen the signal.
Gold is likely to test support at $1180/ounce. Breach would warn of a decline to $1050/ounce (the 2015 low).
Silver is testing long-term support at $14/ounce. Breach would offer a target of $10 but would also warn of similar weakness for Gold.
The All Ordinaries Gold Index is consolidating between 4500 and 5500, buoyed by a weaker Australian Dollar. But Gold is more volatile than the Aussie Dollar and further weakness is expected. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure. Breach of 4500 would signal a primary decline.
Nymex Light Crude is falling steeply. Breakout below the trend channel warns of reversal to a primary down-trend. Breach of support at $55/barrel would indicate a test of $45/barrel.
Falling crude prices are likely to strengthen the Dollar. Dollar Index breakout above 100 would signal another primary advance. Penetration of the descending trendline on the Trend Index would also suggest another long-term advance.
Falling crude prices and a strengthening Dollar are likely to weaken demand for Gold. Reversal below $1150 would signal a decline to $1050/ounce (the 2015 low).
Silver is testing primary support at $14/ounce. Breach would offer a target of $10 but would also warn of a primary down-trend for Gold.
A weakening Australian Dollar has so far offset the decline in the Dollar price of Gold. The chart below, however, shows strong resistance at $A 1750 to $A 1800. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure and penetration of the rising trendline on the price chart would threaten another test of LT support at $A 1350. Local gold miners would be likely to follow.
China’s Yuan continues to weaken while the Dollar index strengthens. Follow-through above 97 would signal another primary advance.
A strengthening Dollar would weaken demand for Gold. The bear rally is likely to meet stubborn resistance at $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 would warn of a decline to the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.
The monthly chart of Spot Silver also shows a strong down-trend, testing primary support at $13.50/ounce.
Crude oil is also showing signs of weakness, with a bearish divergence on the Trend Index. Breach of support at $65/barrel would warn of a primary down-trend.
In the long-term, gold and oil tend to rise and fall together.
Precious metals tend to trend or consolidate together, driven by similar investor motives. Spot silver is testing primary support at $14 per ounce, while a Trend Index peak at zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a primary down-trend.
Gold is still testing support at $1200/ounce but Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure. Respect of the descending trendline indicates another decline with a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce, similar to silver.
The Yuan continues to test support at 14.5 US cents.
The Dollar Index continues to test support at 95, despite the weak Yuan. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure but long tails indicate support. Breach of support at 95 is uncertain but would signal a correction to test 91 — boosting demand for gold.
The Australian Dollar continues a strong down-trend, with Trend Index peaks below zero warning of selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2015/2016 low at 70 US cents.
The falling Aussie Dollar has partially cushioned local gold stocks from weaker gold prices but gold is more volatile than the Dollar. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) is expected to break support at 4550, offering a long-term target of 4000/4100.
A long-term chart shows Silver broke support at $16/ounce and is headed for a test of its 2015 low at $14.
Silver is more volatile but often indicates, ahead of Gold, the direction of the two precious metals. At present that suggests Gold is likely to test its 2015 low of $1050/ounce.
China’s Yuan continues to fall against the US Dollar.
The Dollar Index followed through after breaking resistance at 95. Retracement to test the new support level is now unlikely unless China intervenes to support the Yuan. Focus shifts to the long-term target of 103.
The Australian Dollar broke support at 73 US cents, the Trend Index peak below zero warning of a strong decline. This may cushion local gold miners, to some extent, from the falling US Dollar price but Gold is more volatile.
The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) continues to test support at 4900. Breach is likely and would offer a long-term target of 4100.
Not a good time to buy Gold stocks.
The Dollar Index is testing primary support between 92 and 93. Breach of support would offer a long-term target between 83 and 84* — a bullish sign for gold.
*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83
Crude continues to test resistance at $50/barrel. Respect would indicate another test of the lower trend channel, around $40/barrel, continuing the primary down-trend. Follow-through above $50 would suggest that a bottom has formed and the next correction is likely to be higher than the last low at $42.
Gold retraced to test support at $1250/ounce — in line with crude strength and Dollar support. Respect of support is more likely and would indicate another test of $1300. Reversal below $1250 is unlikely but would warn of another test of primary support at $1200.
Silver also retraced and is likely to test primary support at $15.50. Rising Twiggs Trend Index suggests that another test of resistance at $17 remains likely. Breakout above $17 would be bullish for gold.
The Dollar Index is testing primary support between 92 and 93; bullish for gold. Breach of support would offer a long-term target between 83 and 84*.
*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83
Crude rallied strongly this week, with Nymex light crude testing its upper trend channel at $50/barrel. Respect would indicate another test of the lower trend channel, around $40/barrel, continuing the primary down-trend. Follow-through above $50 would suggest that a bottom has formed and the next correction is unlikely to reach the last low of $42.
Gold followed through above $1260 after a brief retracement, indicating another test of $1300. Reversal below $1250 is unlikely but would be a bearish sign, warning of another test of primary support.
The accompanying rally in Silver is testing the descending trendline at $17/ounce. Penetration would suggest that a bottom is forming and the primary down-trend is near an end; a bullish sign for gold.
The Dollar Index is in a primary down-trend. Its decline accelerated in the last week, headed for the next level of primary support between 92 and 93, which is bullish for gold.
Falling crude prices, however, have a bearish influence on gold. Nymex light crude recently staged a rally but ran into resistance at $47.50/barrel. Expect another decline to test the lower trend channel at $42, continuing the primary down-trend.
Gold broke resistance at $1250/ounce. Follow-through above $1260 would signal another test of resistance at $1300. Reversal below $1250, on the other hand, would be a bearish sign.
Silver rallied off primary support at $15.50/ounce but only a break above the descending trendline (at $17/ounce) would flag a reversal in the primary down-trend.
