Tag: Spot Gold

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Dollar warns of tipping point

Summary

  • The dollar is weakening due to capital outflows from the US
  • Long-term Treasury yields are declining in anticipation of Fed rate cuts
  • However, capital outflows are expected to lift long-term rates and slow economic growth in the years ahead
  • The weaker dollar is expected to depress stock prices and boost demand for gold

The US Dollar Index broke support at 98, signaling another decline with a target of 90. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure.

Dollar Index

A low CPI print boosted support for Treasuries, with the 10-year yield declining to 4.36%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

However, the long-term chart below warns of a bond bear market. After more than three decades of capital inflows into US financial markets, international capital flows have reversed in anticipation of President Trump’s trade policies. Narrowing the trade deficit will likely slow the inflow of capital into the US, raising long-term interest rates and slowing economic growth.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The sharp increase in federal debt, from 55% of GDP in 2008 to 114% today, limits policy options. Reducing the fiscal deficit from its current 6.5% to a more sustainable 3.0% would likely cause a similar contraction in economic growth, tipping the economy into recession.

Federal Debt to Nominal GDP (%)

The Fed is also limited in its monetary policy options because of inflationary pressures from Trump’s trade policy, if it were to cut rates, and the adverse effect on the fiscal budget if it allowed long-term interest rates to rise.

The weakening dollar will likely accelerate the capital outflow from US financial markets, increasing the upward pressure on long-term interest rates and downward pressure on stocks. It is also expected to boost demand for gold as an alternative.

Gold climbed to above $3,400 per ounce, signaling another test of resistance at $3,500. A breakout above $3,500 would strengthen our target of $4,000 by the end of the year.

Spot Gold

According to the IMF, the percentage of gold in international reserves increased by a record 4.0% in 2024, with a similar decline in US Dollar holdings. However, official gold purchases are only half the picture.

Global Reserves

Jan Nieuwenhuijs conducted extensive research, along with the World Gold Council, on unofficial gold purchases by China and Saudi Arabia. He estimates that this back-door gold accumulation amounts to 3,500 tonnes since 2010, in addition to the 5,500 tonnes of official purchases.

Central Bank Gold Purchases

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of its previous high at 6100, but a weakening dollar disguises its true performance. When measured against gold, the index has declined more than 20% in real terms over the past 12 months.

S&P 500

Conclusion

The weakening dollar warns of capital outflows from US financial markets. A narrowing of the trade deficit is expected to reverse the three-decade-long bull market in bonds, lifting long-term interest rates and reducing growth.

The move is bearish for stocks in the long term, with expected higher interest rates and lower earnings growth. However, contracting growth will likely reduce interest rates next year as the Fed loosens monetary policy to stimulate growth. Both long and short-term scenarios are bearish for stocks.

Gold will likely be boosted by a weakening dollar and increased central bank buying as US dollar reserves are replaced with bullion. A breakout above resistance at $3,500 per ounce would strengthen our target of $4,000 by the end of the year, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.

Acknowledgments

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Signal vs Noise

Summary

  • The signal-to-noise ratio is exceedingly high, with market volatility obscuring the underlying trend.
  • Ignore the background noise of Trump policy flip-flops and focus on the effect of rising fiscal debt and long-term interest rates.

The S&P 500 is consolidating below 6000, a bullish sign. A breakout above 6100 would signal another advance, but the index has become a poor leading indicator of the economy. Instead, it is dominated by large passive investment flows into index ETFs, surges in liquidity, and the media cycle, which attempts to parse President Trump’s intentions by his daily sermon from the mount of Truth Social.

S&P 500

The bond market takes a longer-term view and is far more prescient than the equity market. Ten-year Treasury yields are gradually rising as international investors slowly withdraw, without wanting to trigger a panicked rush for the exits. Respect of the 50-week weighted moving average would signal another test of resistance at 4.75%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The dollar is weakening, with the US Dollar Index testing the band of support between 98 and 100. A breach of 98 would warn of another decline, confirming our target of 90.

Dollar Index

Gold is in a strong uptrend, reflecting the same outflow from US capital markets, with a bullish consolidation below 3400 on the weekly chart below. Breakout above 3500 would strengthen our target of 4000 by the end of 2025.

Spot Gold

Consumers

A rebound in consumer confidence buoyed stocks, but the May reading of 98 remains in the same range as the 2020 COVID pandemic.

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence

Consumer expectations rallied to 72.8, but remains below the threshold of 80, which typically warns of a recession ahead.

Conference Board: Consumer Expectations & Present Situation

Economy

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, were below their 2022 peak, at $74.8 billion in April.

Manufacturing New Orders: Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft

That seems pretty healthy, until we adjust for inflation. The chart below, adjusted by the producer price index for capital equipment, warns of a sharp decline in new orders that could easily reach its 2008 low if current instability continues. Corporations are likely to defer decisions on new capital spending until there is a stable outlook.

Manufacturing New Orders: Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft/PPI for Capital Equipment

Conclusion

Ignore the background noise of policy flip-flops and focus on the underlying signal in capital markets. Heightened uncertainty has triggered a steady capital outflow. If you destroy a brand—the USA bastion of democracy and economic stability—it is practically impossible to restore it.

The situation is aggravated by corporations deferring orders for new capital equipment because of the uncertainty. Declining capital investment is likely to tip the economy into recession.

Acknowledgments

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Big Beautiful Bill threatens bond market blowout

Summary

  • The bond market reacted to the record tax and spending bill in Congress that extends tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy
  • The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the bill would add between $3.3 trillion and $5.2 trillion to the US federal debt, depending on whether policymakers extend temporary provisions
  • A weak bond auction lifted long-term yields
  • The dollar fell, while gold climbed above 3300

I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.

~ James Carville, political consultant and lead strategist for Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign.

10-Year Treasury Yield
Weak bond auction

A $16 billion auction of 20-year Treasury bonds on Wednesday attracted less than usual interest, with yields rising to 5.127% after the auction.

“We’ve seen several soft 20-year bond auctions and it has a checkered history as a benchmark issue,” said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies in New York. “This one was not one of the best by any stretch of the imagination, but it also wasn’t one of the worst.”

Simons said while the auction was “far from a disaster,” it showed there was not going to be a reversal in the sell-off at the long end of the yield curve anytime soon. (Reuters)

Why is this a problem?

Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist, responded to a question on CNBC:  Is 4.58% on the 10-year a problem for the bond market?

It’s not so much the level that matters, it’s the “Why?” If this was driven by the growth trajectory, that would be great. But the fact is it’s driven by uncertainty with regard to inflation, and the Fed’s expected reaction. The wattage on the spotlight aiming at the debt and deficit has been turned up. The investor class cares deeply about this issue but the average voter can’t even conceptualize what 30-plus trillion dollars means and doesn’t tend to vote based on this. This spotlight on the issue is a good thing and will increase the chance that something gets done.

President Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill

The House Rules Committee advanced President Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill late Wednesday after 21 hours of debate and amendments, sending the legislation to the floor where it is expected to receive a final vote early Thursday morning.

The package includes a major spending increase for immigration enforcement and the military, and it would extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which are scheduled to expire at the end of this year. It includes a series of cuts to Medicaid, food assistance, and clean energy funding to pay for the trillions of dollars in tax cuts and new red ink. (CNBC)

The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the bill would add between $3.3 trillion and $5.2 trillion to US federal debt by 2034, depending on whether policymakers extend temporary provisions. (Reuters)

Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, and House Freedom Caucus chair Andy Harris, R-Md., were among the members who met with Trump at the White House Wednesday afternoon, in a hastily arranged effort to convince fiscal hawks to set aside their objections and back the deficit-exploding package of tax cuts.

Meanwhile, markets tumbled on concerns that Trump’s spending bill would pass, leading to exploding federal deficits and weaker long-term fiscal health. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond hit 5.09%. (CNBC)

The Dollar & the Dow

The dollar weakened, with the US Dollar Index breaking below 100. Follow-through below 98 would warn of a long-term decline with a target of 90.

Dollar Index

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below its former primary support level at 42K. A follow-through below 41.5K would close the recent gap, signaling another test of primary support at 37K.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Financial Markets

Recent weakness comes despite a sharp recovery in liquidity, with the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index falling to -0.58.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Bitcoin also reached a new high of 110K, signaling a sharp increase in risk appetite in financial markets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Gold & Physical Demand

Gold climbed above 3300, headed for a test of the resistance band between 3400 and 3500. A breakout would strengthen our target of 4000 by the end of 2025.

Spot Gold

A 700% year-over-year spike in COMEX physical gold deliveries in May 2025 (16,000 contracts, $5.3 billion), the largest in history, reflects unprecedented physical demand from institutions, possibly including the US government or Treasury. Despite the recent correction, gold’s rally to 3300 demonstrates resilience, with physical demand overwhelming paper price suppression. (Andy Schectman)

Conclusion

President Trump’s “big, beautiful tax bill” threatens a bond market revolt, with a steep rise in long-term Treasury yields if passed. The 10-year Treasury yield respected support at 4.5%, warning of a test of resistance at 5.0%.

Rising long-term yields would likely cause a sharp fall in the Dow and S&P 500.

The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the bill would add between $3.3 trillion and $5.2 trillion to US federal debt by 2034, depending on whether policymakers extend temporary provisions.

The dollar is weakening, and breakout of the US Dollar Index below 98 would confirm a long-term decline with a target of 90.

Gold is rising, and a breakout above 3500 would strengthen our long-term target of 4000 by the end of 2025.

Acknowledgments

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Gold rallies as the dollar weakens

Summary

  • The S&P 500 is consolidating below 6000, and financial market liquidity is improving
  • However, US stocks are underperforming their global counterparts
  • Gold rallies as LT Treasury yields rise and the dollar weakens

The S&P 500 is consolidating between 5800, its former primary support level, and 6000 on the weekly chart below. Breakout to a new high would signal a return to bull market conditions, but we expect strong resistance between 6000 and 6100.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has similarly recovered above former primary support at 42K, but does not yet signal a reversal to a primary uptrend.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

US stocks continue to underperform their global counterparts, with the broad DJ US Index (DJUS) lagging the Dow Global ex-US ($W2DOW).

DJ US Index ($DJUS) & DJ World ex-US ($W2DOW)

Financial Markets

Bitcoin reached a new high at 107K, signaling strong risk appetite in financial markets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

A sharp fall in high-yield (junk) corporate bond yields signals improving credit availability in financial markets.

Junk Bond Spreads

Treasury Markets

10-Year Treasury yields are retracing to test new support at 4.5%. Respect will likely confirm our target of 5.0%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Economy

The Conference Board’s leading economic index plunged sharply to 99.4% in April, the 1.0% drop following a 0.8% fall in March. The LEI is blue on the chart below.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index

Widespread weakness across the LEI’s ten components warns of a broad slowing of the economy.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Components

The LEI below 100 warns of a recession ahead (black line below), but six-month growth in the LEI (blue below) has not quite reached -4.1%, which would trigger a recession signal (red).

Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Recession Signals

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar Index is retracing to test the band of support between 98 and 100. Breach of support would signal long-term dollar weakness, offering a target of 90.

Dollar Index

Gold found support at 3200 and, after breaking above 3250, is headed for a test of resistance between 3400 and 3500. Our long-term target is 4000 by the end of 2025.

Spot Gold

Silver is testing resistance at 34. Breakout would offer a target of 39.

Spot Silver

Conclusion

The S&P 500 is rallying as financial market liquidity improves, but we expect strong resistance between 6000 and 6100. US stocks continue to underperform their global counterparts, while the Conference Board’s leading economic index warns that the US economy is headed for recession.

10-year Treasury yields are rising, and respect of support at 4.5% would offer a target of 5.0%, another bear signal for stocks. The dollar is weakening, reflecting international capital outflows from US financial markets. A breakout of the Dollar Index below long-term support at 100 would warn of another decline, with a target of 90.

Gold is rising as the dollar weakens, and we expect another test of resistance between 3400 and 3500. Breakout would signal a fresh advance towards our long-term target of 4000 by the end of 2025.

Acknowledgments

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Blow-off or buy the dip?

President Charles de Gaulle once equated being an ally of the United States to sharing a lifeboat with an elephant. The last month has been like sharing a lifeboat with an elephant on ketamine.

Gold epitomizes recent volatility in financial markets. It spiked up to $3,500 per ounce on President Trump’s threat to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell and then plunged when Treasury Secretary Bessent and later Trump moved to placate markets.

Spot Gold

Wall Street flipped to buy mode on Tuesday, without any fresh criticism of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell or flip-flops on tariffs from President Donald Trump to disquiet markets again. Indexes reversed Monday’s tumble, hitting session highs following a report that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said a tariff standoff with China was unsustainable and he expected the situation to de-escalate, raising hopes a bit on U.S. trade negotiations. (Reuters)

Is this a blow-off?

No. The Trend Index shows a sharp rise in volatility since April 9, but these are short-term moves rather than the culmination of a long-term acceleration.

Blow-offs typically occur after a feedback loop in which rising prices attract more buyers, who drive up prices, attracting more buyers. The cycle repeats, with the trend growing increasingly steeper until the market reaches saturation point, when new buyers dry up and the market reverses in a sharp blow-off top.

Similar feedback loops occur in nature–from bushfires and housefires to locust swarms and cyclones–where they start slowly and accelerate into a massive culmination. A bushfire runs out of dry brush, a fire in a room runs out of oxygen, a locust swarm runs out of food, and a cyclone runs out of moist air when it reaches land. All end similarly: expanding rapidly until they consume all available fuel, then suddenly dying.

The weekly chart below shows a typical stock blow-off, experienced by vaccine specialist Moderna (MRNA) during the 2020-2021 COVID pandemic.

Moderna (MRNA)

MRNA gained 2500% in less than two years before the accelerating uptrend ended suddenly, with a shooting star reversal at $500. The stock had more than doubled in the preceding four weeks, with the weekly Trend Index spiking to a high of 5.

In comparison, gold gained 75% over the past 14 months, accelerating to a 16% gain in the past five weeks, with the Trend Index peaking at a high of 1.

Weekly Gold Chart

Conclusion

There is no evidence that rising demand for gold is approaching a culmination. Private demand is growing, and central banks are rapidly converting reserves to gold. Demand is fueled by global uncertainty, and there is no end in sight.

The current pull-back is a much-needed correction after a steep advance. We expect strong support around $3,150 per ounce and will buy the dip. Our long-term target remains $4,000 within the next six months.

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Gold bear trap

Gold briefly broke support at $3,000 per ounce, threatening a correction to test the support band between $2,800 and $2,850. However, strong buying drove the precious metal above the support level, displaying a long tail on today’s candlestick. A breakout above $3,050 would complete a bear trap reversal, signaling a rally to $3,150.

Spot Gold

According to the IMF, gold increased to 21% of official currency reserves. However, gold reserves are far below the 60% to 70% required for a viable gold-backed financial system, as in the 1960s.

Official Gold Reserves

China’s and Saudi Arabia’s gold reserves are climbing steeply, while Western central bank holdings remain below 22,000 tonnes.

Increase in Rest-of-World (China) Gold Reserves

China’s actual reserves are likely higher than the official IMF figures. Jan Nieuwenhuijs at The Gold Observer estimates that China purchased 570 tonnes of gold through unofficial channels last year, with their total holdings close to 5,000 tonnes compared to the 2,280 tonnes in official figures.

Conclusion

We are long-term bullish on gold while the dollar-based global financial system weakens due to excessive government debt and steep fiscal deficits.

The false break below $3,000 warns of a bear trap. Recovery above $3,050 per ounce would confirm a short-term target of $3,150.

Acknowledgments

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Gold rises to a new high while Dow and ASX 200 retreat

The rising uncertainty in financial markets undermined stocks despite solid consumer spending. However, gold rose to a new high, while Germany’s DAX and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also enjoyed strong advances.

The two-day rally on the S&P 500 faded, with a lower close warning of another test of support at 5500. A breach of support would confirm the bear market.

S&P 500

The Dow Industrial Average is in a similar position, hesitating below resistance at 42,000. A reversal below the recent low would again confirm the bear market.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting. The spread between the 2-year (purple) and fed funds rate (gray) shows the market pricing in an average 40 basis points of rate cuts over the next two years.

2-Year Treasury Yield minus Fed Funds Rate below zero warns of Fed rate cuts

Treasury yields remain low, with the 10-year continuing to test support at 4.1%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

However, credit markets are tightening due to rising uncertainty, with high-yield spreads leaping by 160 basis points since the end of January.

Junk Bond Spreads

Consumers

Consumer spending remained reasonably strong in February. New housing starts (purple) recovered due to lower mortgage rates, while February new housing permits (green) held at similar levels.

Housing New Starts & Permits

Thirty-year mortgage rates have eased to 6.65%, in line with softer 10-year Treasury yields.

30-Year Mortgage Rate

Light vehicle sales similarly recovered to nearly 16 million annual units in February.

Light Vehicle Sales

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar Index continues to test support at 103. Breach would offer a target of 100.

Dollar Index

Gold is among the few beneficiaries of the weak dollar and rising uncertainty, advancing to a new high of $3,033 per ounce.

Spot Gold

Australia

The Australian ASX 200 index found short-term support at 7700, but the rally soon faded. A breach of 7700 would confirm the bear market.

ASX 200 Index

The Financials Index displays a dead cat bounce at 8000. Breach of support would further strengthen the bear signal.

ASX 200 Financials Index

Germany

Germany’s DAX is another beneficiary of the uncertainty, threatening a breakout above 23,500 after Germany’s parliament voted in favor of a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure and easing strict borrowing rules to allow for increased defense spending.

DAX Index

Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also displays a strong advance.

Hang Seng Index

Conclusion

Consumer spending remains robust, but financial markets face rising uncertainty. Widening credit spreads warn of a likely contraction in new investment.

The Dow and S&P 500 rally is fading, and reversal below recent support levels would confirm a bear market.

Australia’s ASX 200 index displays a similar pattern and breach of support at 8000 on the ASX 200 Financials Index would confirm the bear market.

Gold rose to a new high of $3,033 per ounce, while the current turmoil also boosted Germany’s DAX and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index.

Acknowledgments

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Strong uptrends in stocks and gold

A longer-term view, with weekly charts, shows stocks and gold in a healthy bull market. The energy sector is bearish, indicating low short- to medium-term inflation, as are industrial metals.

Stocks

The S&P 500 closed above 6100, signaling a fresh advance. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but respect will likely confirm a target of 6400.

S&P 500

Mega-cap technology stocks are the primary driver, with large caps lagging. Lower Trend Index peaks on the S&P 500 equal-weighted index ($IQX) warn of selling pressure, and another test of primary support at 7000 is likely.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Financial Markets

Bitcoin consolidates above 90K, indicating stable liquidity in financial markets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

The 10-year Treasury yield signals another test of support at 4.4%. Respect is more likely, and another test of 4.8% would be bearish for stocks.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar Index has weakened in the last two weeks as the Trump administration threatens to disrupt the global trading system with increased tariffs. Respect of support at 106 remains likely, but a breach would offer a target of 102.

Dollar Index

Gold is in a strong uptrend. The current retracement will likely respect support at $2,800 per ounce, confirming our target of $3,000.

Spot Gold

Energy

Crude is in a bear market, with Nymex WTI crude respecting resistance at $80 per barrel. We expect crude to remain range-bound for most of the year.

Nymex WTI Crude

We are long-term bulls on uranium, but there are no buy opportunities. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF) confirmed the bear market, breaking support at 16 to signal another decline.

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF)

Copper

Copper rallied strongly over the last two weeks, testing resistance near 10K. However, the move is not driven by an increase in end-user demand. From Mining.com:

Worries that US President Donald Trump may impose tariffs on copper had spurred traders and investors to buy copper on the US COMEX exchange and sell on the LME.

Short or bearish positions on the LME are being cut or rolled over ahead of settlement on Wednesday, turning discounts for nearby copper contracts against those further along the maturity into premiums or backwardations.

Copper

Iron & Steel

Iron ore continues its gradual downtrend.

Iron Ore

Australia

The ASX 200 recovered above resistance at 8500, confirming a medium-term target of 8900.

ASX 200 Index

Conclusion

US and Australian stocks are in an uptrend, supported by strong liquidity in financial markets. However, the Trump administration’s trade policies have unsettled markets, making them susceptible to higher-than-normal volatility.

Bonds are in a bear market, and the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to resume its uptrend.

Gold continues in a strong uptrend, with demand driven by geopolitical changes. Respect of support at $2,800 per ounce would confirm our short-term target of $3,000.

Industrial metals remain in a bear market due to weak demand from China.

 

 

 

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