S&P 500 Archives - Page 37 of 37 - the patient investor

October 3, 2011

Dow threatens decline to 10000

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing the band of support between 10600 and 10800. An up-tick in volume indicates some buying support but this appears insufficient to withstand downward pressure. Failure of support at 10600 is likely and would signal a primary decline to 10000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – (12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

The S&P 500 index is similarly testing support at 1100, while 21-day Twiggs Money Flow declining below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of 1100 would signal a primary decline to 950*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1250 – 1100 ) = 950

The NASDAQ 100 is headed for a test of support at 2040. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would signal another decline with a target of 1700*.

NASDAQ 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2300 – 2000 ) = 1700

September 27, 2011April 18, 2024

US rally encounters resistance

Dow Jones Industrial Average tall shadow (or wick) on the latest candlestick [R] indicates rising selling pressure. With excitement about a European bailout deal fading, expect a test of support at 10600. Failure would indicate another down-swing, with a target of 10000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

S&P 500 Index shows continued consolidation between 1120 and 1220 on the weekly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Failure of support at 1120 would test the 2010 low at 1020*/1000.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1120 – ( 1220 – 1120 ) = 1020

NASDAQ 100 Index shows an evening star reversal warning, completed if price reverses below 2200. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero reminds that we are in a primary down-trend. Breach of the lower trend channel would warn of another down-swing, with a target of 1750*.

NASDAQ 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2050 – ( 2350 – 2050 ) = 1750

September 19, 2011

Bear rally and triple-witching

A narrow range with large volume often acts like a compressed spring — absorbing buying pressure before launching a sharp move in the opposite direction. The spike in volume [W] on Dow Jones Industrial Average was due to triple-witching hour on Friday, but we should nevertheless be wary of a fall below 11400, which would indicate another test of 10600.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

The weekly chart of S&P 500 shows a similar bear rally. Expect a test of 1250/1260. But 63-day Momentum below zero reminds that the index is in a primary down-trend; a peak below the zero line would warn of another down-swing.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1125 – ( 1250 – 1125 ) = 1000

NASDAQ 100 Index displays a particularly strong rally, but this remains a bear market. Expect strong resistance at 2400. Failure of support would offer a target of 1700*.

NASDAQ 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2050 – ( 2400 – 2050 ) = 1700