The S&P 500 continues to threaten a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support at 1840 would confirm a correction, while recovery above 1880 would signal an advance to 1950*.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 15, however, suggests low market risk.
The S&P 500 found support at 1840 and is testing resistance at 1875/1880. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term buying pressure. Breakout above 1880 would signal an advance to 1950*. Reversal below 1840 is less likely, but would warn of a secondary correction.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 continues to indicate low market risk.
The S&P 500 retreated below support at 1850, warning of a correction, but the primary up-trend remains strong. Trend strength is depicted by this weekly chart of Ichimoku Cloud, with a buy signal at the start of 2013 and price holding high above a green cloud indicating trend strength.
Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, consistent with a secondary correction, but respect of the rising trendline would signal a healthy up-trend. And recovery above 1850 would offer a target of 1950*.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is rising and a sustained shift above 20 would signal an increase from low to moderate risk.
The Nasdaq 100 also shows bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warning of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline would test primary support at 3400, while respect would confirm a healthy up-trend. Recovery above 3650 would offer a target of 3800*.
* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800
The S&P 500 found support at 1850, signaling an advance to 1950*. Repeated troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong long-term buying pressure
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to reflect low market risk typical of a bull market.
The Nasdaq 100 respected support at 3600, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support would warn of another correction. Follow-through above 3700, however, would offer a target of 3800*.
* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800
Bellwether Transport stock Fedex found support at $130 on the monthly chart. Breakout above $145 would offer a target of $170*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. A bullish sign for the broader economy. Reversal below $130 is unlikely, but would warn of a decline to $120.
* Target calculation: 145 + ( 145 – 120 ) = 170
I daily read predictions of the imminent collapse of stock prices. But ask yourself one question: Is this a bull market or a bear market?
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is below 15.
A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.
~ Jesse Livermore
Sellers evaporated as the S&P 500 followed-through above 1860, closing at 1875 on normal volume. Expect an advance to 1950*. The long-term trend is bullish, with repeated 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated below 15, typical of a bull market.
E-mini jumps on Putin order for troops to return to bases (Reuters).
Breakout above 1850 is a bullish sign. S&P 500 follow-through above 1860 would signal an advance to 1950.
The S&P 500 broke out above 1850, but the tall shadow/wick reflects persistent selling. The E-mini (Mar 2014) is currently sitting just above 1840. Index breakout below this level would warn of another correction. Follow-through above 1860 is now unlikely, but would signal an advance to 1950*. The long-term trend remains bullish, with repeated 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is likely to rise because of developments in the Ukraine, but below 20 reflects a bull market.
Nasdaq 100 reversal below 3600 would warn of a test of primary support at 3400. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below its recent low would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 3700 seems less likely, but would offer a target of 3800*.
* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800
The S&P 500 continues to encounter stout resistance at 1850. The narrow range, however, reflects buyers commitment. Follow-through above 1860 would signal an advance to 1950*. Reversal below 1825 is less likely, but would warn of another correction. The long-term trend remains bullish, with repeated 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.
The S&P 500 encountered stout resistance at 1850, highlighted by today’s false breakout. Follow-through above 1860 would indicate that buyers out-number sellers, signaling an advance to 1950*. Reversal below 1825 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction. The long-term trend remains bullish, with repeated 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 reflects low risk typical of a bull market.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is weaker. Large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 16000 would warn of a correction to test primary support at 15400.
* Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500 – 15500 ) = 17500
The Nasdaq 100, on the other hand, remains bullish. Reversal below 3600, especially after last week’s doji star candlestick formation, would warn of a test of primary support at 3400. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below its recent low would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 3700, however, would offer a target of 3800*.
* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800
