Tag: S&P 500

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S&P 500 breakout but no buy signal

Summary

  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout
  • Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening
  • But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession
  • The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high levels of uncertainty

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 6100 to reach a new high. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but respect will likely signal a fresh advance.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has also reached a new high.

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)

However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lags and has not yet confirmed the new breakout.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The broad Dow Jones US Index (DJUS) still lags the DJ World-x-US Index (W2DOW).

DJ US Index ($DJUS) & DJ World ex-US ($W2DOW)

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.51 on June 20, signaling improving financial conditions.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

10-year Treasury yields declined to 4.25%, providing further support for stocks.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Economy

The Conference Board’s leading economic index (LEI) declined to 99.0% in May. Six-month growth in the LEI (blue) fell to an annualized -5.4%, below the -4.1% that triggers a recession signal (marked in red).

Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Recession Signals

The black line on the above chart indicates negative growth in more than 50% of the LEI components over the past six months, which confirms the recession signal.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Components

Manufacturers’ new orders, excluding defense and aircraft, are one of the few LEI components that did not decline over the past 6 months. However, they show a steep long-term downtrend when adjusted for inflation (PPI for capital goods).

Manufacturing New Orders: Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft/PPI for Capital Equipment

New orders for consumer goods, adjusted by CPI, are also declining.

Manufacturing New Orders: Consumer Goods/CPI

Dollar & Gold

The dollar continues to weaken, with the US Dollar Index breaking support at 98 to confirm our target of 90.

Dollar Index

Gold is consolidating between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of secondary selling pressure, and another test of support at $3,200 is likely. Respect of support would signal another test of resistance at $3,500.

Spot Gold

Silver is consolidating in a narrow pennant at $36 per ounce. A retracement to test the new support level at $34 remains likely, but follow-through above $37 would signal another advance.

Spot Silver

Conclusion

A breakout of the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 45K would signal another advance for stocks, but the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession. Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods and consumer goods both display long-term weakness.

10-year Treasury yields softened to 4.25%, and financial conditions are easing, supporting stock prices. However, a declining dollar and strong gold price continue to warn of uncertainty. We don’t see this as a buy opportunity for investors; extreme stock valuation levels continue to warn of elevated risk of a significant drawdown.

Acknowledgments

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Gold, the Dollar and a big hole in the desert

Summary

  • Stocks rallied on news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel
  • But celebrations may be premature
  • The dollar weakened, which is likely to boost demand for gold

The S&P 500 rallied to test resistance at 6100. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure.

S&P 500

Uncertainty remains high.

The White House was quick to claim victory after the US airstrike on Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities. But claims that the subsequent ceasefire is the start of a new era of peace in the Middle East will likely prove premature.

A ceasefire is not a peace settlement. It’s a pause in hostilities that allows both parties to rearm and re-strategize.

A precision strike is nothing more than a big hole in the desert, the effectiveness of which can only be determined by subsequent Iranian actions.

The damage assessment reported by CNN is premature, but it does raise some interesting questions.

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said.

The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear ambitions is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available.

….Two of the people familiar with the assessment said Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of the people said the centrifuges are largely “intact.” Another source said that the intelligence assessed enriched uranium was moved out of the sites prior to the US strikes. (CNN)

If the stockpile of enriched uranium were moved or otherwise not destroyed, how would this affect Israel’s security?

The only way to finish this is with boots on the ground. Neither Israel nor President Trump is likely to commit to that.

In the Treasury market, 10-year yields declined to 4.3%, easing the pressure on stocks.

10-Year Treasury Yield

However, the dollar continues to weaken, with the US Dollar Index testing support at 98. A breach would confirm our target of 90.

Dollar Index

The chart below shows how Brent crude and the dollar moved contra-cyclically, with the dollar weakening when crude oil prices rose, and vice versa.

However, that changed shortly before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the dollar strengthened despite a spike in energy prices, diverging from past behavior as investors sought safety. The divergence continues, with the dollar weakening while crude oil prices are falling. The dollar’s role is under threat.

Brent Crude & USD Index for Advanced Economies

Investors globally appear to be gradually reducing their exposure to dollar-denominated assets, driving the greenback down to its lowest level against a basket of major currencies in three and a half years….

According to Bank of America’s FX strategy team, European “real money” investors – institutions like pension funds and insurance companies – are the main drivers of the dollar’s selloff in the second quarter, slashing their dollar positioning to the lowest since 2022 in a matter of weeks.

But the story might not be so straightforward…. research shows that most of the dollar’s average daily declines in the last few months have come in Asian trading hours, suggesting Asian holders of U.S. bonds may also be increasing their dollar hedges. (Reuters)

Demand for gold remains strong as the dollar weakens, with the metal finding support at $3,300 per ounce. Respect of this level would signal another test of resistance at $3,400.

Spot Gold

Conclusion

Stocks have rallied, but uncertainty in the Middle East remains high.

Long-term Treasury yields have softened, but the dollar continues to weaken, reflecting uncertainty over the US role in the global monetary system.

Private investors have replaced central banks as major investors in US Treasuries. They are far more price sensitive, and both European and Asian investors are increasingly hedging their dollar positions, expecting dollar weakness.

A weakening dollar is expected to boost demand for gold.

Acknowledgments

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Dollar warns of tipping point

Summary

  • The dollar is weakening due to capital outflows from the US
  • Long-term Treasury yields are declining in anticipation of Fed rate cuts
  • However, capital outflows are expected to lift long-term rates and slow economic growth in the years ahead
  • The weaker dollar is expected to depress stock prices and boost demand for gold

The US Dollar Index broke support at 98, signaling another decline with a target of 90. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure.

Dollar Index

A low CPI print boosted support for Treasuries, with the 10-year yield declining to 4.36%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

However, the long-term chart below warns of a bond bear market. After more than three decades of capital inflows into US financial markets, international capital flows have reversed in anticipation of President Trump’s trade policies. Narrowing the trade deficit will likely slow the inflow of capital into the US, raising long-term interest rates and slowing economic growth.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The sharp increase in federal debt, from 55% of GDP in 2008 to 114% today, limits policy options. Reducing the fiscal deficit from its current 6.5% to a more sustainable 3.0% would likely cause a similar contraction in economic growth, tipping the economy into recession.

Federal Debt to Nominal GDP (%)

The Fed is also limited in its monetary policy options because of inflationary pressures from Trump’s trade policy, if it were to cut rates, and the adverse effect on the fiscal budget if it allowed long-term interest rates to rise.

The weakening dollar will likely accelerate the capital outflow from US financial markets, increasing the upward pressure on long-term interest rates and downward pressure on stocks. It is also expected to boost demand for gold as an alternative.

Gold climbed to above $3,400 per ounce, signaling another test of resistance at $3,500. A breakout above $3,500 would strengthen our target of $4,000 by the end of the year.

Spot Gold

According to the IMF, the percentage of gold in international reserves increased by a record 4.0% in 2024, with a similar decline in US Dollar holdings. However, official gold purchases are only half the picture.

Global Reserves

Jan Nieuwenhuijs conducted extensive research, along with the World Gold Council, on unofficial gold purchases by China and Saudi Arabia. He estimates that this back-door gold accumulation amounts to 3,500 tonnes since 2010, in addition to the 5,500 tonnes of official purchases.

Central Bank Gold Purchases

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of its previous high at 6100, but a weakening dollar disguises its true performance. When measured against gold, the index has declined more than 20% in real terms over the past 12 months.

S&P 500

Conclusion

The weakening dollar warns of capital outflows from US financial markets. A narrowing of the trade deficit is expected to reverse the three-decade-long bull market in bonds, lifting long-term interest rates and reducing growth.

The move is bearish for stocks in the long term, with expected higher interest rates and lower earnings growth. However, contracting growth will likely reduce interest rates next year as the Fed loosens monetary policy to stimulate growth. Both long and short-term scenarios are bearish for stocks.

Gold will likely be boosted by a weakening dollar and increased central bank buying as US dollar reserves are replaced with bullion. A breakout above resistance at $3,500 per ounce would strengthen our target of $4,000 by the end of the year, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.

Acknowledgments

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Rising recession risk threatens bond market

Summary

  • Trade talks with China have stalled
  • President Trump announces steel and aluminum tariffs will increase from 25% to 50%
  • Input costs for US manufacturers are expected to soar
  • Spending is expected to slow after the introduction of tariffs in April
  • The economic outlook is clouded with uncertainty, and the risk of a recession is rising

President Trump accused China of “totally violating its agreement” with the United States last week. (Reuters)

The Geneva agreement concluded between Treasury Secretary Bessent and his Chinese counterpart called for a 90-day pause in increased tariffs and for China to lift restrictions on exports of critical materials such as rare earths needed for semiconductor, electronics, and defense applications.

According to a US trade representative, the Chinese are moving slowly on granting export licenses for critical materials. The automobile industry is already warning that shortages of rare earth magnets could halt production in a matter of weeks.

The Chinese slow-walking of export licenses appears to be retaliation for the US last week imposing license requirements, and revoking some licenses, for exports of design software and chemicals for semiconductors, butane and ethane, machine tools, and aviation equipment.

In another blow to the auto industry, President Trump announced that he will increase tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%. Steelmakers are expected to benefit from higher domestic prices, boosting output, but automobile manufacturing, heavy engineering, and construction industries will likely bear the costs.

Steel exports from Canada and Mexico will be most affected, but South Korea, Germany, and Brazil are also expected to suffer. The EU has threatened retaliatory measures if the issue cannot be resolved.

Aluminum imports are likely to continue despite the increased tariffs. Bauxite and electricity are the two primary input costs of smelters, and domestic US smelters will struggle to match the low-cost hydroelectric power of global competitors.

Financial Markets

The S&P 500 is testing the band of resistance at 6000, but short weekly candles indicate hesitancy.

S&P 500

Strong liquidity supports financial markets, with the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index falling to -0.606, signaling easy monetary conditions.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

10-year Treasury yields are testing support between 4.4% and 4.5%, but the weak dollar warns of capital outflows that are expected to send long-term yields higher.

10-Year Treasury Yield

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says, “You are going to see a crack in the bond market. It is going to happen…. I’m telling you it’s going to happen….”

Economy

Former Fed economist Dr Lacy Hunt warns that the US economy is slowing, with a higher than 50% probability of recession. He warns that the economy is far weaker than generally understood, and what markets are not considering is that spending brought forward to front-run tariffs is likely to cause a sharp drop in spending in the next few months.

A recession would also cause the fiscal deficit to increase sharply, by at least another 2.0% of GDP, adding further stress on the bond market.

The ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 48.5% in May, indicating a long-term contraction.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Manufacturing inventories surged in March as manufacturers brought forward purchases to get ahead of April’s tariff increases.

ISM Manufacturing Inventories

Imports also surged in the first quarter, followed by a steep plunge in May.

ISM Manufacturing Imports

Exports are contracting at a similar rate.

ISM Manufacturing Exports

Prices is the only sub-index that has surged, warning of steeply rising input costs.

ISM Manufacturing Prices

Crude Oil

OPEC+ decided to increase production targets by 411.000 barrels per day in July, which is equal to the increases in May and June.

However, in a sign of shrinking global trade, China’s seaborne imports declined by more than a million barrels per day in May. Kpler estimates imports at 9.43 mbpd compared to 10.46 mbpd in April and 10.45 mbpd in March. (Reuters)

Brent crude is likely to re-test support at $60 per barrel, and breach would offer a target of $50.

Brent Crude

Dollar & Gold

Capital outflows are weakening the dollar. The US Dollar Index has broken support at 100, and follow-through below 98 would confirm another decline with a target of 90.

Dollar Index

Gold rallied to test the band of resistance at $3,400 per ounce. A breakout above $3,500 would strengthen our target of $4,000 by the end of 2025.

Spot Gold

Conclusion

Due to high levels of uncertainty, consumers and corporations are expected to defer capital expenditures in the months ahead. The drop in spending is likely to be accelerated by the build-up in inventories and the bringing forward of expenditures to get ahead of tariff increases in April.

Contracting imports and exports in the manufacturing sector warn that the economy will slow. Falling crude oil imports in China paint a similar outlook, suggesting a global recession.

A recession would increase the deficit and further stress the bond market, which is already concerned about spiraling debt levels.

A falling dollar and rising gold price warn of capital outflows from US financial markets. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon tells us to prepare for a coming crack in the bond market. That would mean higher long-term yields and sharply lower stock prices, likely boosting demand for gold even higher.

Acknowledgments

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Signal vs Noise

Summary

  • The signal-to-noise ratio is exceedingly high, with market volatility obscuring the underlying trend.
  • Ignore the background noise of Trump policy flip-flops and focus on the effect of rising fiscal debt and long-term interest rates.

The S&P 500 is consolidating below 6000, a bullish sign. A breakout above 6100 would signal another advance, but the index has become a poor leading indicator of the economy. Instead, it is dominated by large passive investment flows into index ETFs, surges in liquidity, and the media cycle, which attempts to parse President Trump’s intentions by his daily sermon from the mount of Truth Social.

S&P 500

The bond market takes a longer-term view and is far more prescient than the equity market. Ten-year Treasury yields are gradually rising as international investors slowly withdraw, without wanting to trigger a panicked rush for the exits. Respect of the 50-week weighted moving average would signal another test of resistance at 4.75%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The dollar is weakening, with the US Dollar Index testing the band of support between 98 and 100. A breach of 98 would warn of another decline, confirming our target of 90.

Dollar Index

Gold is in a strong uptrend, reflecting the same outflow from US capital markets, with a bullish consolidation below 3400 on the weekly chart below. Breakout above 3500 would strengthen our target of 4000 by the end of 2025.

Spot Gold

Consumers

A rebound in consumer confidence buoyed stocks, but the May reading of 98 remains in the same range as the 2020 COVID pandemic.

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence

Consumer expectations rallied to 72.8, but remains below the threshold of 80, which typically warns of a recession ahead.

Conference Board: Consumer Expectations & Present Situation

Economy

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, were below their 2022 peak, at $74.8 billion in April.

Manufacturing New Orders: Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft

That seems pretty healthy, until we adjust for inflation. The chart below, adjusted by the producer price index for capital equipment, warns of a sharp decline in new orders that could easily reach its 2008 low if current instability continues. Corporations are likely to defer decisions on new capital spending until there is a stable outlook.

Manufacturing New Orders: Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft/PPI for Capital Equipment

Conclusion

Ignore the background noise of policy flip-flops and focus on the underlying signal in capital markets. Heightened uncertainty has triggered a steady capital outflow. If you destroy a brand—the USA bastion of democracy and economic stability—it is practically impossible to restore it.

The situation is aggravated by corporations deferring orders for new capital equipment because of the uncertainty. Declining capital investment is likely to tip the economy into recession.

Acknowledgments

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US Market Leading Indicators

Bull/Bear Market Indicator
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.

Bull/Bear Market

Our Bull/Bear Market indicator remained at 60% this week, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off:

Bull-Bear Market Indicator

30-Week Smoothed Momentum is approaching zero on the S&P 500. A cross to below zero would complete another composite bear signal.

S&P 500 Twiggs Smoothed Momentum 30-Week

Stock Pricing

Stock pricing eased to 96.05, compared to 95.04 five weeks ago and a high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.

Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

Conclusion

We remain in the early stages of a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing is extreme, with elevated risk of a significant drawdown.

Acknowledgments

Notes

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Gold rallies as the dollar weakens

Summary

  • The S&P 500 is consolidating below 6000, and financial market liquidity is improving
  • However, US stocks are underperforming their global counterparts
  • Gold rallies as LT Treasury yields rise and the dollar weakens

The S&P 500 is consolidating between 5800, its former primary support level, and 6000 on the weekly chart below. Breakout to a new high would signal a return to bull market conditions, but we expect strong resistance between 6000 and 6100.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has similarly recovered above former primary support at 42K, but does not yet signal a reversal to a primary uptrend.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

US stocks continue to underperform their global counterparts, with the broad DJ US Index (DJUS) lagging the Dow Global ex-US ($W2DOW).

DJ US Index ($DJUS) & DJ World ex-US ($W2DOW)

Financial Markets

Bitcoin reached a new high at 107K, signaling strong risk appetite in financial markets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

A sharp fall in high-yield (junk) corporate bond yields signals improving credit availability in financial markets.

Junk Bond Spreads

Treasury Markets

10-Year Treasury yields are retracing to test new support at 4.5%. Respect will likely confirm our target of 5.0%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Economy

The Conference Board’s leading economic index plunged sharply to 99.4% in April, the 1.0% drop following a 0.8% fall in March. The LEI is blue on the chart below.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index

Widespread weakness across the LEI’s ten components warns of a broad slowing of the economy.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Components

The LEI below 100 warns of a recession ahead (black line below), but six-month growth in the LEI (blue below) has not quite reached -4.1%, which would trigger a recession signal (red).

Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Recession Signals

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar Index is retracing to test the band of support between 98 and 100. Breach of support would signal long-term dollar weakness, offering a target of 90.

Dollar Index

Gold found support at 3200 and, after breaking above 3250, is headed for a test of resistance between 3400 and 3500. Our long-term target is 4000 by the end of 2025.

Spot Gold

Silver is testing resistance at 34. Breakout would offer a target of 39.

Spot Silver

Conclusion

The S&P 500 is rallying as financial market liquidity improves, but we expect strong resistance between 6000 and 6100. US stocks continue to underperform their global counterparts, while the Conference Board’s leading economic index warns that the US economy is headed for recession.

10-year Treasury yields are rising, and respect of support at 4.5% would offer a target of 5.0%, another bear signal for stocks. The dollar is weakening, reflecting international capital outflows from US financial markets. A breakout of the Dollar Index below long-term support at 100 would warn of another decline, with a target of 90.

Gold is rising as the dollar weakens, and we expect another test of resistance between 3400 and 3500. Breakout would signal a fresh advance towards our long-term target of 4000 by the end of 2025.

Acknowledgments

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US Weekly Market Snapshot

Bull/Bear Market Indicator
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.

Bull/Bear Market

Our Bull/Bear Market indicator is unchanged at 60%, with two of the five leading indicators signaling risk-off:

Bull-Bear Market Indicator

We replaced the Coincident Economic Activity Index with Current Economic Conditions from the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer survey. The UOM index offers earlier recession warnings—when the 3-month moving average crosses below 100—and more timely updates.

University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions

The current reading of 68.20 is a strong bear signal. The Fed Funds target rate is also in a bear cycle, but the two require confirmation from one of the following two indicators:

If the Chicago Fed Financial National Conditions Index rises above -0.40.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Or the S&P 500 30-week Smoothed Momentum crosses below zero.

S&P 500

Stock Pricing

Stock pricing eased slightly to the 95.67th percentile from a high of 97.79 six weeks ago. However, the extreme reading still warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.

Stock Market Value Indicator

The Stock Pricing indicator compares stock prices to long-term sales, earnings, and economic output to gauge market risk. We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

 

Conclusion

There’s little change this week. We are close to a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing is still extreme, highlighting the risk of a significant drawdown.

Acknowledgments

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