South African Rand Archives - Page 2 of 3

April 26, 2012

Forex: Aussie Dollar and South African Rand

The Aussie Dollar encountered support at $1.03, evidenced by several long tails on the daily chart. Recovery above $1.045 would confirm that the correction has ended and would signal another advance to $1.08. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would confirm the advance.

Aussie Dollar/USD

The Aussie is declining against the South African Rand. Failure of support at R7.90/R8.00 would test the rising trendline around the R7.50 mark. Breach of the trendline and/or follow-through of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

April 19, 2012

Forex: Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie continues its narrow consolidation, having withstood falling crude oil prices over the last two weeks. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high of $1.06*. Failure of support at $0.995 is less likely but would warn of a correction to primary support at $0.95.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Weaker commodity prices are dragging the Aussie Dollar lower. On the weekly chart we can see the Aussie testing medium-term support at $1.02. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggest a strong up-trend. In the longer term, breakout above $1.085 would offer a target of $1.20*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

On the daily chart, the Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at $1.045. Breach of its descending trendline indicates that the correction has weakened. Recovery above $1.045 would indicate the start of a fresh advance to test the 2012 high of $1.085.

Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar is also retracing for another test of support against the South African Rand — at R7.90/R8.00. Momentum has fallen sharply and failure of support would warn of a correction to the long-term ascending trendline, around R7.50.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 29, 2012

Forex: CAD, AUD, ZAR

Canada’s Loonie continues a narrow consolidation below $1.01, suggesting an upward breakout in response to higher oil prices. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary advance. Target for the advance would be the 2011 high of $1.06. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of reversal.

CAD/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie Dollar reflects broader weakness in commodities. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of a decline to test primary support at $0.96, while respect would indicate another test of $1.08 — and suggest an upward breakout.

AUD/USD

Against the South African Rand, the Aussie Dollar continues to test support at R8.00. Narrow consolidation suggests a downward breakout and test of the long-term trendline at R7.50. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

AUD/ZAR

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 22, 2012

Forex: Aussie, Loonie, Rand

Canada’s Loonie, buoyed by rising oil prices, is testing resistance at $1.01/$1.015. Narrow consolidation suggests an upward breakout and advance to the 2011 high of $1.06*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero also indicates a primary advance.

Canadian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.00 – 0.95 ) = 1.06

The Australian Dollar, dragged lower by weaker commodity prices, is testing medium-term support at $1.04 on the Weekly chart. Respect of the rising trendline is more likely and would indicate a breakout above the ascending triangle at $1.08. Long-term target for an advance would be $1.20 but that seems unachievable in the near-term. Breach of the rising trendline is less likely, but would warn of a correction back to $0.96; and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would indicate a primary down-trend.

Australian Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

The Aussie Dollar breached support against the South African Rand at R8.00 on the Daily chart. Follow-through below R7.90 would confirm a correction to $7.60*. Breach of the long-term rising trendline, however, would warn of a primary down-trend.

AUD/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.05 – ( 8.45 – 8.05 ) = 7.60

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 15, 2012

Forex: Australia, Canada and South Africa

A stronger greenback and weaker commodity prices are likely to depress resource-rich currencies. Canada’s Loonie stood up surprisingly well, mainly because of rising crude oil prices. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovered above zero, indicating a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would strengthen the signal, offering a target of the 2011 high at $1.06.

Canadian Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 1.07

The Aussie Dollar weakened along with commodity prices. Failure of support at $1.04 would warn of a correction to primary support at $0.96. Penetration of the rising trendline and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal.

Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar found support at R8.00 South African Rand. Expect a rally to test the upper range border at R8.50, but failure of support would test the long-term trendline at R7.50*. Penetration of the trendline and/or reversal of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

March 8, 2012

Forex: Euro and Yen weaken while Rand recovers

The Euro is retreating to test medium-term support at $1.30 on the weekly chart. Failure would mean a fall to primary support at $1.25/$1.26. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero reinforces the primary down-trend.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.25 – ( 1.35 – 1.25 ) = 1.15

Pound Sterling is ranging between $1.5650 and $1.6000 against the greenback. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of the opposite.

GBPUSD

The dollar respected the new support level at 80 Japanese Yen. Breakout above ¥82 would confirm the primary up-trend, with an initial target of ¥85.

USDJPY

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

The Aussie Dollar continues to test support at R8.00 South African Rand. Failure would offer an initial target of R7.50, at the rising trendline. Momentum is falling sharply and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

AUDZAR

March 1, 2012

Forex: Aussie Dollar, Canadian Loonie and South African Rand

The Aussie and Canadian Dollar mirror the CRB Commodities Index, testing resistance at their long-term highs. The Aussie encountered resistance at $1.08. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend — already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

Canada’s Loonie is similarly testing resistance at $1.01. Breakout would offer a target of $1.06*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The South African Rand is fairing slightly better, with the Aussie testing medium-term support at R8.00. Failure would warn of a correction to the long-term rising trendline at R7.50.

South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

February 16, 2012

Forex: Euro slides on Greek turmoil

The euro retreated below $1.32 USD; failure of support at $1.30 would indicate another test of primary support at $1.26. And breakout below primary support would signal a decline to $1.20*.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.20

Pound Sterling is retreating on the weekly chart. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of another test of primary support at $1.53.

Pound Sterling

Canada’s Loonie respected resistance at $1.01 and is likely to re-test its rising trendline. Recovery above $1.01 is uncertain but would signal a primary up-trend.

Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie Dollar similarly respected resistance at $1.08 and is likely to test medium-term support and the rising trendline at $1.04. Breakout above $1.08 would indicate a primary up-trend; confirmed if 63-day Momentum respects the zero line (from above).

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

The US Dollar found support at R7.50 South African Rand. A rally that respects the descending trendline, however, would warn of continuation of the primary down-trend. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

US Dollar/South African Rand

The greenback is strengthening against the Japanese Yen. Breach of the descending trendline indicates that a bottom is forming. And breakout above ¥80 would signal the start of a primary up-trend — confirming the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum.

Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84

February 9, 2012

Forex: Euro weak while Aussie strengthens

The euro is testing resistance around $1.32 but the primary down-trend is strong. With 63-day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero, expect another test of primary support at $1.26. Breakout remains likely and would offer a target of $1.20*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.20

The Aussie dollar has surged ahead of the CRB Commodities Index which it tracks quite closely. Breakout above $1.08 would signal a primary advance to $1.20*.

Australian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

Canada’s Loonie shows a similar pattern, testing resistance at $1.01. Breakout would offer a target of $1.06*.

Canadian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Pound Sterling followed through above the descending trendline, indicating that the primary down-trend is over. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Only a breakout above 41.62, however, would signal the start of a primary up-trend.

Pound Sterling/USD

The greenback continues to test support at ¥76. Breakout would signal another decline, this time with a target of ¥72*. Long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, indicates that the down-trend is slowing; breach of the descending trendline would strengthen the signal. Recovery above ¥80 would signal a primary up-trend.

USD/Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 76 – ( 80 – 76 ) = 72

The South African Rand unexpectedly broke downwards from its bullish ascending triangle against the Aussie Dollar; follow-through below R8.00 would signal a correction to R7.50 (and the long-term trendline).

Australian Dollar/South African Rand

December 15, 2011

Forex update: Euro breaks support

The euro broke through primary support at $1.32, warning of another primary decline with a target of $1.22*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong primary down-trend.
Euro

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

Pound Sterling is testing primary support at $1.54, while 63-day Twiggs Momentum is below zero. Failure of support would signal a primary decline to $1.46.

Pound Sterling

* Target calculation: 1.54 – ( 1.62 – 1.54 ) = 1.46

The Aussie Dollar retreated below parity, indicating another test of medium term support at $0.97. Failure would test primary support at $0.94/$0.95. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a continuing primary down-trend. Weakening commodity prices, especially coal and iron ore, should strengthen the down-trend.

Australian Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.97 – ( 1.03 – 0.97 ) = 0.91

The Canadian Loonie is headed for a test of primary support at $0.94/$0.95. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero suggests a continuing primary down-trend.

Canadian Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.00 – 0.95 ) = 0.90

A monthly chart of the Greenback against the Yen shows strong bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, suggesting reversal of the primary down-trend. Breakout above ¥80 and the descending trendline would confirm the signal.

Japanese Yen

The US Dollar continues in a strong up-trend against both the South African Rand and Brazilian Real, helped by falling commodity prices. Breakout above R8.60 would signal a further advance to R9.20.

South African Rand and Brazilian Real

* Target calculation: 8.60 + ( 8.60 – 8.00 ) = 9.20