Shanghai Composite Index Archives - Page 19 of 26

June 17, 2013

ASX: Following China into a down-trend

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 1650, but declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of continued selling pressure. Breakout would signal an advance to the upper trend channel, around 1700. Reversal below 1600, however, remains likely and would indicate a correction to 1500.
S&P 500 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke primary support at 2170 on Thursday. Follow-through below 2150 would signal a decline to the 2012 low of 1950*.

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2350 – 2150 ) = 1950

The ASX 200 is retracing to test its new resistance level at 4900. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend — as would a peak below zero on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow.

ASX 200 Index

The ASX Small Ordinaries Index, reflecting retail investor interest in the market, continues its primary down-trend. Breach of the 2012 low at 2040 warns of a decline to 1700*.

ASX Small Ords Index

* Target calculation: 2050 – ( 2400 – 2050 ) = 1700

June 11, 2013

Europe & Asia: Widespread selling pressure

Germany’s DAX respected support at 8000 on its recent retracement. Follow-through above 8500 would confirm a fresh primary advance. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of strong selling pressure. Retreat below 8000 would test the rising trendline around 7500.
DAX Index

The FTSE 100 also encountered resistance at its 2007 high, bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signaling selling pressure. Expect a test of support at 6000. Recovery above 6750 is unlikely but would signal a fresh primary advance.

DJ Europe Index

The Nikkei 225 found support at 12500. Reversal below this level would warn of a decline to 10000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. I was interested to read that George Soros was buying Japanese stocks. To me it seems premature.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is headed for a test of medium-term support at 19000. Breach would test primary support at 18000. Respect would indicate another advance, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 18000 would confirm.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index reversed below its new support level at 3300, warning of a bull trap. Follow-through below last week’s low would indicate a test of the long-term trendline around 3000.

Straits Times Index

The Shanghai Composite Index retreated sharply last week and is headed for another test of support at 2150. Breach would signal a fall to 1950. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. A weakening Shanghai Index is bearish for Australian resources stocks.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 found support at 4750, while bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. The falling Aussie Dollar is forcing a retreat of offshore investors from the market, but the eventual boost to export earnings is likely to present a buying opportunity later. Expect a weak rally followed by decline to 4500.

ASX 200 Index

June 4, 2013April 18, 2024

Nikkei, ASX find support but India & China weaken

Dow Jones Japan index found support at its long-term rising trendline. Follow-through above 77 would indicate the correction is over, suggesting an advance to 100*. Breach of the trendline, however would warn that the primary trend is weakening.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 70 ) = 100

The ASX 200 also encountered buying pressure, with a hammer candlestick at the primary support level of 4900. Recovery above 5000 would indicate the correction is over, but breach remains as likely and would confirm the primary down-trend suggested by bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow.

ASX 200 Index

India’s Sensex is testing medium-term support at 19600. Breach would signal a correction to test primary support at 18000. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Recovery above 20000 is unlikely, but would suggest an advance to 22000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Dow Jones Shanghai Index broke its rising trendline, warning that the rally is running out of steam. Failure of support at 294 would signal another test of primary support at 275. Respect of support is unlikely, but would indicate a test of primary resistance at 314.

Shanghai Composite Index

The overall outlook for Asia remains bearish apart from Japan.

June 3, 2013

Bearish signs for stocks

10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.05/2.10% with a key reversal (or outside reversal) on Friday, signaling a primary up-trend and possible test of 4.00% in the next few years. The tall shadow on Friday’s candle, however, warns of another test of the new support level before the trend gets under way. Only breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of the lower trend channel at 1600, declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support at 1600 would warn of a correction.

S&P 500 Index
The VIX is rising, but only breakout above 20 would indicate something is amiss.

S&P 500 Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index ran into huge selling pressure, falling to 13400 by midday Monday. Expect a test of support at 11500, but the primary trend remains upward. Rising industrial production indicates that Abenomics is starting to take effect.

Nikkei 225 Index

The UK’s FTSE 100 also ran into selling pressure — at its 2007 high of 6750 — with bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Expect a correction to test 6000, but the primary trend remains upward.
FTSE 100 Index

Bearish divergence on the Shanghai Composite Index (21-day Twiggs Money Flow) indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect another test of primary support at 2170. Penetration of the rising trendline would confirm. Breakout above 2460 would complete an inverted head and shoulders reversal (as indicated by orange + green arrows), signaling a primary up-trend, but that appears some way off.

Shanghai Composite Index

May 27, 2013April 18, 2024

Shanghai rising but Nikkei, ASX selling pressure

Germany’s DAX is retracing to test the new support level at 8000. Respect would confirm a primary advance, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure — a fall below zero would warn of a reversal. Breach of 8000 would test the rising trendline around 7500.
DAX Index

Dow Jones Europe encountered strong resistance at 290, but remains in a primary up-trend. Penetration of the rising trendline would warn that the trend is losing momentum, while failure of support at 270 would signal a reversal.

DJ Europe Index

The Nikkei 225 ran into massive selling between 15000 and 16000. The gravestone on the monthly chart, supported by bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warns of a reversal.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is headed for a test of long-term resistance at 21000, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Respect of resistance would indicate another test of primary support at 18000.

BSE Sensex Index

The Shanghai Composite Index respected support at 2150 and is headed for another test of resistance at 2500. Breakout above 2500 would complete an inverted head and shoulders reversal (as indicated by orange + green arrows), signaling a primary up-trend. That is still some way off but would be good news for Australia’s beleaguered resources stocks.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of primary support at 4900. Breach would also penetrate the rising trendline, indicating reversal to a primary down-trend. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow has been warning of strong selling pressure. The falling Aussie Dollar is forcing a retreat of offshore investors from the market, but the boost to export earnings is likely to present a buying opportunity for Australian investors when the correction is over.

ASX 200 Index

May 22, 2013

China hints at bottom while S&P 500 reverses

10-Year Treasury yields are testing resistance at 2.05/2.10%. Breakout above 2.10% would signal a primary up-trend and possible test of 4.00% in the next few years. Only breakout above 4.00%, however, would end the 31-year secular bear-trend.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 completed a key reversal (or outside reversal), indicating selling pressure. Expect a test of the lower trend channel at 1600.

S&P 500 Index
There is no great movement in the VIX and this so far looks like a normal retracement. A June quarter-end below 1500 looks unlikely, but would present a long-term bear signal.

S&P 500 Index

The UK’s FTSE 100 Index is headed for a test of its year 2000 high at 7000. Expect a correction or consolidation below this level. Breakout remains doubtful but would signal a long-term primary advance.

Penetration of its descending trendline indicates correction on the Shanghai Composite Index has ended and we can expect another test of resistance at 2500. Breakout above 2500 would complete an inverted head and shoulders reversal (as indicated by orange + green arrows), signaling a primary up-trend. That would be good news for Australia’s beleaguered resources stocks.

Shanghai Composite Index

As traders we follow the trend, but in times like this it is important to remain vigilant.

April 29, 2013

Asia: Singapore breakout, ASX 200 selling pressure

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke long-term resistance at 3300, signaling an advance to the 2007 high of 3900*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum strengthen the signal.
DJ Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

India’s Sensex followed through above resistance at 19000. Breach of the descending trendline would indicate a primary advance to 22000*. 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, signals selling pressure and reversal below 19000 would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.
BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

China’s Shanghai Composite is again testing medium-term support at 2150. Failure of support would warn of a decline to test primary support at 1950/2000. Reversal above 2250, however, would penetrate the descending trendline, indicating another test of 2500.
Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 continues to climb, with a steeply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 15000*.
Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11500 + ( 11500 – 8000 ) = 15000

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5150. Breakout would offer a target of 5400*, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Failure of support at 4900 would signal a reversal.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 4900 ) = 5400

April 23, 2013

Nikkei and ASX 200 rally, while China & Europe weaken

Respect of support at 1540 and the bottom trend channel indicates a S&P 500 rally to test 1600 and the upper channel line. Failure to break resistance at 1600 would warn of a correction as signaled by mild bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1350 + ( 1350 – 1100 ) = 1600

The FTSE 100 also respected support, at 6220, but a tall shadow on Monday warns of selling pressure. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the signal and breach of support (6220) would signal a test of the primary trendline at 6000.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6220 – ( 6420 – 6220 ) = 6020

Germany’s DAX broke medium-term support at 7500. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak at zero warns of selling pressure. Follow-through below 7400 would signal a test of primary support at 7000. Recovery above 7600 is unlikely, but would test the descending trendline at 7700.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 – ( 8000 – 7500 ) = 7000

India’s Sensex broke resistance at 19000. Respect of support at 18000 and the rising trendline indicates the primary trend is intact. Mild bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow signals buying pressure. Expect consolidation or short retracement, but follow-through above the descending trendline at 19200 would indicate an advance to 20000.
BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 – 18000 ) = 20000

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing medium-term resistance at 2250. Breakout would penetrate the descending trendline, indicating the correction is over.
Shanghai Composite Index
Unfortunately the Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected the descending trendline Tuesday, indicating another down-swing to the lower trend channel.
DJ Shanghai Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is the star performer, when measured in Yen. Sharp rallies, with frequent gaps, followed by short retracements indicates a strong up-trend. As does 21-day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating clear above the zero line.
Nikkei 225 Index

The ASX 200 met some resistance at 5020, but rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure and breakout would signal a test of 5150.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5025 + ( 5025 – 4900 ) = 5150

April 16, 2013

Asia: Japan rises as gold falls

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is in a strong primary up-trend as the BOJ commences asset purchases on a massive scale. This is a tectonic shift in the market. Larry Edelson (as quoted by Barry Ritholz) has the most convincing explanation of the sharp fall in gold:

The wicked and aggressive devaluation of the Japanese yen is setting off a massive stampede OUT of gold and into cash and other assets…….Why are the Japanese dumping gold, especially when their currency is being devalued? It’s simple. The fall in the Japanese yen caused the price of gold in yen to spike sharply higher. So Japanese investors are cashing in their profits.

…and buying stocks.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11500 + ( 11500 – 8500 ) = 14500

India’s Sensex corrected to support at 18000; breakout would warn that momentum is failing and a test of primary support at 16000 likely. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a (primary trend) reversal.

Sensex Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing medium-term support at 2150. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a bottom is forming, but that does not rule out another test of primary support at 1950/2000. Respect of 2150, however, with breach of the descending trendline, would be a bullish sign suggesting an inverse head-and-shoulders reversal.

Shanghai Composite Index

March 25, 2013

Asia tentative

Dow Jones Japan Index was tentative Monday, the inside day indicating hesitancy. Recovery above 70.50 would signal continuation of the primary advance, while penetration of the rising trendline would warn of a correction.

Dow Jones Japan Index

Dow Jones Hong Kong Index met resistance at its former support level. The Hang Seng Index is testing medium-term support at 22000. Failure appears likely and would test primary support — and the rising trendline — at 21000.

The Shanghai Composite Index found support at 2250 for the third week in a row. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Respect of support would be a bullish sign: a shallow trough followed by breakout above 2450 would signal a primary up-trend. Failure of support, while less likely, would test primary support at 1950/2000.
Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2450 + ( 2450 – 2250 ) = 2650

India rallied Monday, but failure of support at 18800 would test the primary level at 18000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Failure of 18000 would indicate a primary trend reversal.

Sensex Index