Crude futures (Light Crude November 2015 – CLX2015) are testing short-term support at $44 per barrel. Breach is likely and would indicate another test of the recent low at $38.50. Failure of that level would offer a (long-term) target of $30*. Recovery above the descending trendline and resistance at $52 per barrel is unlikely, but would suggest that a bottom is forming.
* Target calculation: 40 – ( 50 – 40 ) = 30
Crude prices rallied sharply in the last few days, boosted by downward revision of US oil output and hints that OPEC may consider production cuts. October 2015 futures (Nymex Light Crude – CLV2015) tested resistance at $50/barrel before falling just as steeply on weak manufacturing data out of China.
Expect another test of support at $38/barrel. Breach of support would offer a target of $26/barrel*.
*Target: 38 – ( 50 – 38 ) = 26
Long-term crude prices are falling fast, with June 2017 futures (Nymex Light Crude – CLM2017) having broken through its medium-term target of $50/barrel*.
* Target calculation: 56 – ( 60 – 54 ) = 50
The August 2015 Report from the International Energy Agency indicates that oversupply is growing. After the latest market turmoil, IEA estimates of global demand are also likely to be revised downward. Maybe that long-term target of $36/barrel** is not so crazy after all.
**Long-term target: 66 – ( 90 – 60 ) = 36
Decline of Nymex Light Crude September 2015 futures (CLU2015) is slowing as it nears the medium-term target of $40/barrel*. Narrow consolidation at this level would suggest a continuation of the down-trend.
* Target calculation: 50 – ( 60 – 50 ) = 40
Long-term June 2017 Nymex Light Crude futures (CLM2017) are consolidating in a narrow range at the medium-term target of $54/barrel*. Continuation of the down-trend is likely but recovery above $55.40 would warn of a bear market rally (not a reversal). Breach of support at $54 would offer a medium-term target of $50**.
* Target calculation: 60 – ( 66 – 60 ) = 54; ** Target calculation: 56 – ( 60 – 54 ) = 50
Expect crude prices to continue falling. The August 2015 Report from the International Energy Agency indicates that oversupply is growing. It is likely to take at least a year before balance is restored.
Nymex Light Crude futures (September 2015 – CLU2015) are approaching their medium-term target of $40/barrel*. Expect support at this level.
* Target calculation: 50 – ( 60 – 50 ) = 40
Long-term June 2017 Nymex Light Crude futures (CLM2017) are testing the medium-term target of $54/barrel* — a premium of about $11/barrel over current delivery. Expect support at this level but the long-term target could be as low as $36**.
* Target calculation: 60 – ( 66 – 60 ) = 54; ** Target calculation: 66 – ( 90 – 60 ) = 36
Long-term June 2017 Nymex Light Crude futures (CLM2017) is approaching its medium-term target of $54/barrel*, maintaining a premium of about $10/barrel over current delivery. Expect support at $54, but the long-term target could be as low as $36**.
* Target calculation: 60 – ( 66 – 60 ) = 54
** Target calculation: 66 – ( 90 – 60 ) = 36
The nuclear deal with Iran is likely to increase supply of crude oil, especially in European markets, driving down prices.
Brent crude August 2015 contract (CBQ15 above) is testing support at $56 per barrel. Narrow consolidation suggests continuation of the down-trend. Breach of $56 would signal a test of primary support at $53.
Nymex (WTI) Light Crude August 2015 contract (CLQ15) is in a similar pattern, with medium-term support at $51 and primary support at $49 per barrel.
Nymex Light Crude continues its sharp descent, with August 2015 futures breaking medium-term support at $54 per barrel.
The next major support level is primary support at $44.
Nymex Light Crude continues its sharp descent, with August 2015 futures falling below $55 per barrel. Respect of $53 would indicate the (secondary) up-trend is intact, but breach would warn of a test of primary support at $44.
Nymex Light Crude closed below support at $58 per barrel, signaling retracement to test medium-term support at $53. Respect of $53 would suggest an advance to $68/barrel, while failure would warn of a test of primary support at $44.
June 2020 futures broke support, at $70/barrel, suggesting a test of $50/barrel*.
* Target calculation: 70 – ( 90 – 70 ) = 50
