Tag: Nymex WTI Light Crude

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The Gold-Euro-Dollar conundrum

The Euro broke support at $1.28 against the greenback (weekly chart). Respect of the descending trendline warns of a down-swing to test primary support at $1.20. Reversal of  63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal. But the Dollar Index and Gold suggest the opposite. Recovery above $1.28 would indicate a bear trap.
Euro

The Dollar Index is inversely rising to test resistance at 81/81.50. Breakout would indicate another test of 84.00 but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Rising gold also suggests dollar weakness. Reversal below support at 78.50 would complete a head-and-shoulders reversal with a target of 74*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 79 – ( 84 – 79 ) = 74

Spot gold (daily chart) broke resistance at $1725 per ounce, signaling an advance to $1900*. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1800 would confirm. The conundrum is the euro is weakening and dollar index strengthening but gold is rising rather than weakening as expected.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1700 ) = 1900

The DJ-UBS Commodity Index (weekly chart) found support at 140. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is testing zero. Respect would indicate a primary up-trend. Recovery above $1.52 would confirm. Breach of $140, however, and 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero, resulting from a strengthening dollar and/or global down-turn, would test primary support at 126.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Nymex WTI Light Crude is headed for a test of primary support at $76/$78 per barrel. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend. Brent Crude is also weakening, headed for test of primary support at $90.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

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Gold and dollar test support

The Dollar Index (daily chart) broke medium-term resistance at 80 before retracing to test the new support level. Penetration of the descending trendline indicates the correction has ended. A long tail on Wednesday indicates (short-term) buying pressure; respect of support would signal an advance to 81. But the primary trend is downward — reflected 63-day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero — and breach of support at 79 would signal a decline to 75*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 78 – ( 81 – 78 ) = 75

Still on the daily chart, spot gold found short-term support at 1700, penetrating the descending trendline. A stronger dollar would suggest further gold weakness but the $DXY primary trend remains down. Expect another test of $1700 but respect would signal a rally to $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend, while breakout above $1800 would confirm.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

The DJ-UBS Commodity Index (weekly chart) reflects an easing inflation outlook, breach of medium-term support at 145 signaling a correction. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would suggest a primary up-trend, while a fall below zero would mean further weakness.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Brent Crude (weekly chart) is testing support at $108 per barrel. Breakout would indicate a decline to $100. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 108 – ( 117 – 108 ) = 99

Nymex WTI Light Crude is falling faster, headed for a test of primary support at $76/$78 per barrel. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a primary down-trend.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

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Gold and commodities fall

The Dollar Index is consolidating between 79 and 80. Upward breakout would test resistance at 81.00/81.50 — penetration of the descending trendline indicating the correction has ended — but the primary trend is downward and breach of support at 79 would signal another decline. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 79 – ( 81 – 79 ) = 77

Inflation expectations are easing, with spot gold undergoing a correction since breaking support at 1750. Expect short-term support at 1700 and penetration of the descending trendline would indicate another test of $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero is likely — and would signal a primary up-trend, while breakout above $1800 would confirm.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

The DJ-UBS Commodity Index also reflects an easing inflation outlook, breaking medium-term support at 145 to signal a correction. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is unlikely to remain above zero but a shallow trough would be a bullish sign.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Brent Crude is also falling, having broken support at $108 per barrel. Expect a test of $100. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 108 – ( 117 – 108 ) = 99

Nymex WTI Light Crude is similarly headed for a test of primary support at $76/$78 per barrel. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a primary down-trend.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

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Dollar rebound drives gold and commodities lower

The US Dollar Index respected support at 81.00 and is headed for resistance at 83.50. Breakout would offer a target of 86.00*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above the zero line indicates a healthy up-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold retreated below support at $1600/ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero signals a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at $1530 would confirm. Introduction of QE3 by the Fed, however, would commence a new up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

The primary down-trend on CRB Commodities Index is unlikely to change unless we see the introduction of QE3. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 270 – ( 290 – 270 ) = 250

Brent Crude and Nymex WTI Light Crude both offer a target of $75 per barrel. After falling sharply over the last few months, the gap has narrowed to just over $10 per barrel — from a peak of $25 in October 2011. Rapidly expanding gas and oil reserves are driving North American prices lower, while gloomy prospects for European economies have crimped demand for Brent Crude.

Brent Crude and Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

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Dollar, gold, crude oil and commodities

The Dollar Index is retracing to test support at 81.50. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, offering a long-term target of the 2010 high at 89. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero indicates a healthy up-trend.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold is rallying to test resistance around $1650/ounce — at the descending trendline on the monthly chart. Breakout from the long-term trend channel suggests that a top has formed in response to the stronger dollar. Reversal below $1600 would indicate another test of primary support at $1500, while upward breakout would test $1800. A second dip of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the warning of a primary down-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

CRB Commodities Index is consolidating above support at its target of 265. Expect a rally to test resistance at 295, but failure of support would test the 2010 low at 250. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a healthy down-trend. Commodities are falling (and the dollar rising) in anticipation of a global economic down-turn. Expect stocks (as indicated by the S&P 500 index) to follow commodities lower.

CRB Commodities Index

Nymex WTI Light Crude is headed for support at its 2011 low of 76, though we may see medium-term retracement to test resistance. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero signals a primary down-trend.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

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Stronger dollar, weaker commodities: gold, copper and crude

The US Dollar is in a primary up-trend, the Dollar Index having broken resistance between 81 and 82. Retracement is likely to test the new support level; respect of 81 would confirm a healthy up-trend. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Money Flow would likewise strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot gold is also testing a new support level — this time on the daily chart — after breaking resistance at $1600/ounce. Penetration of the declining trendline suggests that the down-trend is weakening, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum remains firmly below zero. Follow-through above $1640 would strengthen the bull signal — as would recovery of Momentum above zero — but failure of $1600 would re-test $1540.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

Other commodities have reacted negatively to the stronger dollar, suggesting that gold will continue its downward path. Copper is in a clear down-trend, headed for a test of the 2011 low at 6800.

Copper Grade A

Brent crude broke its mid-2011 low at $100/barrel, offering a long-term target of $75*.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

Nymex WTI Light Crude is similarly headed for a test of long-term support at $75/barrel.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

CRB Commodities Index is similarly headed for a test of support at 250. The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a strong primary down-trend. First, expect retracement to test resistance at 295; respect would confirm the down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 290 – ( 330 – 290 ) = 250

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Crude: Brent and WTI Light

Brent Crude is headed for a test of primary support at $100/barrel. Failure would indicate a long-term decline to $75/barrel*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

Nymex WTI Crude below $90/barrel, signals a primary down-trend. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Expect a test of the 2011 low at $75/barrel — similar to Brent Crude.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 92 – ( 110 – 92 ) = 76

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Crude: Brent and WTI Light

Brent Crude is broke medium-term support at $110/barrel and is headed for a test of the band of primary support between $100 and $103/barrel. Failure would indicate a long-term decline to $75/barrel*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

Nymex WTI Light Crude followed through below $90/barrel, signaling a primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Expect a test of the 2011 low at $75/barrel (similar to Brent Crude).

Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 92 – ( 110 – 92 ) = 76

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Crude: Brent and WTI Light

Nymex WTI Light Crude broke support at $96/barrel, warning of a primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal, while follow-through below $93 would confirm.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 95 – ( 110 – 95 ) = 80

Brent Crude is testing medium-term support at $110/barrel. Failure would indicate a fall to the primary level at $103. Follow-through below $100 would offer a long-term target of $75/barrel*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

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