labor Archives - the patient investor %

June 21, 2012

A tilt in Australian liberalism | MacroBusiness

Houses and Holes: As I have noted in the past that, for the most part, Australian political economy is divided pretty simply into two teams. On one side you have a kind of bastardised social liberalism in which trade union thugs wield power via the Labor Party and are supported by a cultural community of Irish-Catholic derived “battlers”. On the other side, you have an equally bastardised neo-liberalism in which corporations wield power via the Liberal Party and are supported by a cultural community of English-Protestant derived “bludgers”. Whether the members of either team are from Vietnam, Israel, Lebanon or Lapland, rich or poor is irrelevant. This is our tribal political culture……

via A tilt in Australian liberalism | | MacroBusiness.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

April 22, 2012

En Passant » Slip sliding away: a eulogy for Gillard Labor?

John Passant: There is the rotten stench wafting from the crypt of Parliament of a dying party bereft of principle whose raison d’etre is power for powers’ sake, not the betterment of the working class and the poor.

….The Slipper syndrome – power before principle, rule for the rich – highlights once again the bankruptcy of Labor and may be another heaving gasp on the way to the final death rattle of the ALP’s version of social democracy in Australia.

via En Passant » Slip sliding away: a eulogy for Gillard Labor?.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 4, 2011

Would all those who are unemployed please raise their hand

US unemployment fell to 8.6 percent in November, the lowest level in more than 2 years. But let’s take a look at the real figures — without the spin. The unemployment rate only includes those who have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks. That excludes anyone who has abandoned hope of finding a job and is no longer seeking work. The Jobless Rate below paints a far bleaker picture, reflecting all unemployed, either full-time or part-time, whether or not they are seeking work. The chart is restricted to males aged 25 to 54 in order to minimize demographic factors that could cause wider variations among females, youth under the age of 25, or 55 or older.

US Males 25 To 54 Jobless Rate

There is a visible improvement, with a fall below 18 percent, but we are a long way from the lows of 12 percent recorded in the last boom. Apart from the massive spike in 2008, what is also evident is the long-term up-trend: the jobless rate has increased steadily over the last 60 years — from a low of just 3.6 percent in 1953. We are a long way from being able to congratulate ourselves on the recovery.

September 22, 2011

Westpac–ACCI Survey of Industrial Trends

The Westpac–ACCI Survey of Industrial Trends reports that:

• The fall in general business conditions is sharper than in 2008/09
• Labor demand softened and availability of labor increased appreciably
• Firms’ profit expectations slumped further — the weakest since 2009.

It concludes with the following statement:

This is a survey which is sending a very clear message. It is time for the authorities to ease financial conditions. Inflation pressures are weak; labor markets are soft; and investment and export plans have softened. Westpac predicted that the Reserve Bank would cut rates in December back in mid July. The case for lower rates is now strong.