JSE Overall Index Archives - the patient investor %

April 1, 2012

Brazil & South Africa

Brazil’s Bovespa Index is in a primary up-trend but currently undergoing a correction. Respect of the rising trendline would signal a healthy up-trend, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow respect of the zero line would strengthen the signal.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 60 + ( 60 – 50 ) = 70

South Africa’s JSE Overall Index indicates medium-term selling pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. A correction that respects support at 33000 would confirm the primary up-trend, offering a target of 36000*.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 34.5 + ( 34.5 – 33 ) = 36

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

January 23, 2012

Canada, Brazil and South Africa

Resources markets are recovering, with Canada’s TSX 60 index testing resistance at 715 after breaching the descending trendline. Breakout would complete a higher trough, signaling a primary up-trend. Target for the initial advance would be 800*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 640 ) = 800

Brazil’s Bovespa broke through 60000, signaling a primary up-trend with an initial target of 65000*.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 60 + ( 60 – 55 ) = 65

South Africa’s JSE Overall Index broke clear of 33000, signaling a primary up-trend. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow strengthens the signal. Initial target for the advance is 35000*, with a long-term mark of 37000.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 33 + ( 33 – 31 ) = 35

January 17, 2012

JSE & Bovespa threaten breakout

South Africa’s JSE Overall Index broke resistance at 33000 to signal a primary advance. Target for the initial advance is 35000*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of medium-term selling pressure; we should wait for confirmation from a retracement that respects the new support level. The indicator is rising in the long-term, however, indicating buying support.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 33 + ( 33 – 31 ) = 35

Brazil’s Bovespa index is testing resistance at 60000. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Again, we need to wait for retracement to confirm the breakout.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 60 + ( 60 – 55 ) = 65

November 17, 2011

South Africa: JSE threatens breakout

The JSE Overall Index completed a similar reversal to the Brazilian Bovespa, with a break above 31500. We can now see a similar ascending triangle below 33000. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a fresh advance to 37000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow confirms buying pressure.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 33 + ( 33 – 29 ) = 37

October 18, 2011

South Africa & Brazil

The JSE Overall Index is testing both resistance and the descending trendline at 31500. Breakout would test the 2008/2011 high of 33000, but respect would warn of a test of 30000. Reversal below 30000 would signal a primary decline to 26000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support but long-term selling pressure.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 28500 – ( 31500 – 28500 ) = 25500

Brazil’s Bovespa index also shows medium-term buying support but long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 58000 would indicate another test of primary support at 50000. Breakout above 58000 is unlikely, given global market conditions and falling iron ore prices, but would signal reversal to a primary up-trend.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 50 – ( 58 – 50 ) = 42

October 3, 2011

Brazil leads the way, JSE likely to follow

The Brazilian BOVESPA index is headed for another test of 48000. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of further selling pressure. Failure of support would signal a down-swing to 38000*.

BOVESPA Index

* Target calculation: 48 – ( 58 – 48 ) = 38

South Africa’s JSE Overall Index fared better than most but is likely to be dragged lower by the global bear market. Expect a test of support at 28400; failure would signal a decline to 26000*.

Johannesburg Overall Index

* Target calculation: 28.5 – ( 31 – 28.5 ) = 26