China recovery

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing support at 2150 and the lower trend channel. Recovery above the descending trendline would suggest another rally, while failure of support would warn of a correction to primary support at 1950. The index hints at long-term recovery but further confirmation is necessary.
Shanghai Composite Index

The Harper Petersen Index, from ship brokers Harper Petersen & Co., indicates that shipping rates for container vessels remain depressed, suggesting a sluggish global trade in manufactured goods. Exporters like China would be severely affected.

Harper Petersen Index

The Baltic Dry Index — reflecting dry bulk shipping rates for commodities like iron ore and coal — jumped sharply, however, reflecting an upturn in demand for bulk commodities.
Baltic Dry Index

Bulk commodity prices remain depressed according to the RBA.
RBA Bulk Commodity Prices
But export volumes are rising, in step with the Baltic Dry Index, reflecting strong demand from infrastructure development.
RBA Bulk Commodity Exports

WSJ reports that monthly electricity consumption has reached a new high:

China on Tuesday posted an all-time record-high electricity output level of 498.7 billion kilowatt-hours in August, rising 13% from a year earlier.

Monthly fluctuations should largely be ignored because of weather variation — excessively hot months like August can boost electricity demand — but the rising long-term trend in electricity consumption (chart from IndexMundi) suggests a robust recovery. A recovery led primarily by infrastructure investment rather than manufactured exports may well prove unsustainable in the long-term, but should provide welcome relief to the resources sector in the next few years.
Electricity Consumption

China exports

Shipping rates for container vessels remain at depressed levels, close to the lows of 2009, according to the The Harper Petersen Index from ship brokers Harper Petersen & Co. This reflects the depressed level of global trade in manufactured goods. Major exporters like China are the most severely affected.

Harper Petersen Index

China manufacturing exports shrink

The Harper Petersen Index shows a fall in container shipping rates in the last few months, reflecting a sharp decline in manufacturing exports.

Harper Petersen Index

Bloomberg (hat tip to now reports that “the cost of hauling goods to Europe from China (its largest export market) is falling faster than rates for deliveries to the U.S. The price for shipments to Europe is down 39 percent to $511 per twenty-foot box since Aug. 31, according to figures from Clarkson Securities Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. That’s more than double the 18 percent slide in the cost to the U.S. West Coast, measured in 40-foot units.”