Hong Kong & China: Soft Landing

A weekly chart of the Hang Seng Index, with a long tail on last week’s candle, indicates respect of the 20000 support level. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above the zero line indicates buying pressure. Follow-through above 21000 would indicate an advance to 23000*, confirming the primary up-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 21.5 + ( 21.5 – 20 ) = 23

Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected support at the 2010 low of 275, indicating that a bottom is forming. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above resistance at 310 would confirm, offering an initial target of 345*.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 310 + ( 310 – 275 ) = 345

China weakens

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke support at 2300, suggesting continuation of the primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 2150 would confirm the signal, offering a target of 1800*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, however, is correcting to test medium-term support at 20000. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm, offering an initial target of 23000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000

Hong Kong & China correction

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is retracing after a sharp bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. The longer term 13-week indicator, however, suggests no more than a secondary correction. Breach of the rising trendline, however, would warn that the trend is losing momentum.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 22500

The Shanghai Composite Index is retracing to test support at 2300. Failure would indicate continuation of the primary down-trend, while respect would suggest that a base is forming. A further peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would signal another decline.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong & China

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is in a primary up-trend. Having retraced briefly, it appears to have found support at 21000. Recovery above 21500 would signal an advance to 22500*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 22500

The Shanghai Composite Index, however, remains in a primary down-trend. Breakout above 2500 would, however, suggest that the trend is weakening. Respect of support at 2300 would suggest reversal to a primary up-trend, while failure of support would warn of another decline.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2100 – ( 2500 – 2100 ) = 1700

Hong Kong & Shanghai

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated Wednesday in response to a sharp fall in Shanghai. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of a correction, but as long as the lower trend channel at 20,000 is respected the primary up-trend remains intact.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 22500

Dow Jones Shanghai Index fell sharply to test support at 295. Failure of support would warn of a correction.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

Shanghai Composite Index shows a similar fall. Follow-through below 2380 would signal a correction to primary support at 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index

China & Hong Kong

The Shanghai Composite Index rallied strongly above 2300 after breaking out of its downward trend channel. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow rising strongly indicates good buying pressure. Expect resistance at 2550. Breakout above this level would offer a weak (primary) reversal signal. Stronger confirmation would come if retracement successfully tests support at 2300.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has already started a primary up-trend, with an initial target of 22,500*. Reversal below 21,000 would signal retracement to test the new support level at 20,000, but 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow again indicates buying pressure and we can expect the primary up-trend to continue.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20,000 + ( 20,000 – 17,500 ) = 22,500

China’s soft landing

The Hang Seng Index is approaching its target of 22,000. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 20,000. Respect would confirm a strong primary up-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

A monthly chart of the Shanghai Composite Index reflects China’s soft landing over the last two years. The gentle down-trend is likely to continue, with the current rally testing the descending trendline around 2850.

Shanghai Composite Index

China & Hong Kong

The Shanghai Composite Index broke out of its descending trend channel, indicating that a bottom is forming. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum, however, remains a long way below zero, indicating weakness. Look for a retracement to test support at 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index


Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index displays a strong up-trend since breaking resistance at 20,000. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but buying pressure, best illustrated by the strong rise on (medium-term) 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, is likely to prevail.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

Hong Kong & China

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index broke through resistance at 20000 to signal a primary up-trend but is likely to first retrace to test the new support level. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum crossed above zero to strengthen the bull signal — and respect of the rising trendline would confirm the new up-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The Shanghai Composite index broke out of its descending trend channel, indicating that the down-trend has weakened and a bottom is forming. A sharp rise on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.  Expect resistance around the previous peak of 2500.

Shanghai Composite Index

China & Hong Kong

Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at 2300 but there is no clear breakout from the trend channel to indicate a trend change. Respect would signal a down-swing to test the lower trend channel around 2000*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2300 – 2150 ) = 2000

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index followed through above 20000 to confirm the breakout signaling the start of a new up-trend. Target for the initial advance is 22500*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 22500