Gold and Copper: Towards a new measuring stick

Our old measuring stick, the Dollar, is broken and no longer fit-for-purpose. The Fed and other major central banks have consistently eroded the value of their national currencies through quantitative easing; expanding their balance sheets by 580% — from $5T to $29T — over the past 14 years, as the chart from Ed Yardeni below shows.

Total Assets of Major Central Banks

Currency debasement is easily hidden from view by simultaneous policies across central banks, affecting all major currencies.

Gold as a benchmark

Attempts to use Gold as an independent benchmark are frequently interfered with by government attempts to suppress the Gold price, dating back to the London Gold Pool of the early 1960s. Alan Greenspan even went so far as to base Fed monetary policy on Gold, not so much to suppress the Gold price but as an early warning of inflation (measured inflation figures are lagged and therefore useless in setting proactive monetary policy). The result was similar, however, suppressing fluctuations in the Gold price.

A new benchmark

Earlier than Greenspan, Paul Volcker had used a benchmark based on a whole basket of commodities to measure inflation.

Our goal is derive a similar but simpler benchmark that can be applied to measure performance across a wide range of asset classes.

Copper and other industrial metals, on their own, are not a viable alternative because demand tends to fluctuate with the global economic cycle.

Gold and Silver also tend to fluctuate but their cyclical fluctuations, especially Gold, tend to run counter to industrial metals. Demand for Gold is driven by safe haven demand which tends to be highest when the global economy contracts.

We therefore selected Gold and Copper as the two components of our benchmark because their fluctuations tend to offset each other, providing a smoother and more reliable measure. A mix of 5 troy ounces of Gold and 1 metric ton of Copper provides a fairly even long-term balance between the two components as illustrated by the chart below. The middle line is our new benchmark.

5 Troy Ounces of Gold & 1 Metric Ton of Copper

Copper (red) leads in times of inflation, when industrial demand is expanding rapidly, while Gold (yellow) leads in times of deflation, when the global economy contracts.

First, let’s address the weaknesses. China’s entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the early 2000s, a once-in-a-century event, caused a surge in the price of both Copper and Gold. The change drove up commodity prices but drove down prices of finished goods; so we are undecided whether this is truly inflationary.

The sharp fall in 2008, however, is accurately depicted as a massive deflationary shock, caused by private debt deleveraging during the global financial crisis (GFC). Central banks then intervened with balance sheet expansion (QE). Accompanied by fiscal stimulus, QE caused a huge inflationary spike lasting from 2009 to 2011.

5 Troy Ounces of Gold & 1 Metric Ton of Copper

Fed expansion paused in 2011-2012 and was followed by a sharp contraction by the European Central Bank (ECB), causing deflation, as the breakdown from Ed Yardeni below shows. The ECB then reversed course — following Mario Draghi’s now famous “whatever it takes” — and, accompanied by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), engaged in another rapid expansion.

Total Assets of Major Central Banks

The Fed attempted to unwind their balance sheet in 2018-19, causing a brief deflationary episode before all hell broke loose in September 2019 with the repo crisis. Fed balance sheet expansion in late 2019 was, however, dwarfed by the expansion across all major central banks during the pandemic. Fed QE caused a sharp spike in the M2 money supply as well as in our Gold-Copper index (GCI), warning of strong inflation.

GCI & M2 Money Stock

Market Values using our GCI benchmark

While not as high as some valuation measures (PE or Market Cap/GDP), plotting the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index against the GCI shows stocks trading at levels only exceeded during the 1999-2000 Dotcom bubble.

Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index/GCI

The Case-Shiller Index plotted against GCI shows home prices are relatively low in real terms, most of the froth being created by a shrinking Dollar.

Case Shiller US National House Price Index/GCI

But if you think housing is cheap — after the China-shock — look what happened to wages.

Average Hourly Manufacturing Earnings/GCI

Precious Metals

Plotting Gold against the GCI might seem counter-intuitive but it highlights, quite effectively, periods when Gold is highly-priced relative to its historic norm. The yellow metal retreated to within its normal trading range in March 2021.

Gold/GCI

The plot against GCI offers far less distortion than the Gold-Oil ratio below.

Gold/Brent Crude

We only have 4 years of data for Silver (on FRED). Plotting against GCI warns that silver is highly-priced at present but we will need to source more data before drawing any conclusions.

Silver/GCI

Conclusion

Stock prices are high and overdue for a major correction but this is only likely to occur when: (a) government stimulus slows; and/or (b) the Fed tapers its Treasury purchases, allowing long-term Treasury yields to rise. Market indications — and dissenting voices (Robert Kaplan) at the Fed — suggest that the taper could occur sooner than Jay Powell would have us believe.

The Gold-Copper index (GCI) warns of strong inflation ahead, which should be good for both commodities and precious metals. But bad for stocks and bonds.

Gold-Oil ratio warns of further easing

I don’t attach much significance to the Gold-Oil ratio on its own but it’s back in overbought territory, above 25.

Spot Gold/Light Crude

The chart below — plotting inflation-adjusted prices (over CPI) — far better depicts the relationship between gold and crude oil. Each major spike in crude prices over the last 50 years has been followed by a rising gold price.

Spot Gold/Brent Crude

Falling crude prices are likely to weaken demand for gold over the next few years, both through lower inflation and declining foreign reserves of major oil producing nations.

Gold finds support at $1250

The Dollar Index continues to test support at 96.50. The primary trend is down and breach of support is likely, signaling a decline to test the 2016 low at 92/93.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold found support at $1250. A weaker Dollar and rising political uncertainty both favor an up-trend but rising interest rates are expected to weaken demand. Respect of support at $1250 would confirm the up-trend, while breach of $1200 would warn of another decline.

Spot Gold

Gold-Oil ratio says “Sell”

Spot Gold recently recovered above $1100, suggesting a short rally fueled by concern over China. The gold-oil ratio, however, soared to 33, signaling that gold is highly overbought relative to Brent Crude. Last time the gold-oil ratio reached 30 was 1988 — when the Iraq-Iran ceasefire eased global crude shortages — and before that when the Saudis substantially hiked crude oil production in 1985. Any gold rally is likely to be short-lived — with stubborn resistance at $1200/ounce — and followed by a test of support at $1000/ounce*.

Spot Gold and Brent Crude

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1200 – 1100 ) = 1000

The last time (2008) that Brent Crude reached these lows, gold fell to $700/ounce.

Gold: The next leg down

Spot Gold respected resistance at $1180/ounce and is headed for another test of support at $1080. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum with peaks below zero confirms a strong primary down-trend. Breach of support at $1080 would offer a target of $1000/ounce*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

Barrick Gold, one of the largest global gold producers, has already broken support at $6.50, signaling another decline (with a target of $4.50).

Barrick Gold

The Gold-Oil ratio remains in overbought territory above 20, suggesting continuation of the bear market for gold.

Gold-Oil ratio

Long-term crude prices have resumed their fall, with June 2017 (CLM2017) futures headed for another test of support at $48/barrel after a bear rally respected the descending trendline. If long-term crude prices break support at $48, gold is not likely to hold above $1000/ounce.

WTI Light Crude June 2017 Futures

Gold falls sharply

Gold is headed for another test of primary support at $1525 after breaking support at $1625. Breach of $1525 would signal a primary down-trend. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum breakout below -10% would strengthen the signal, while reversal above zero would suggest further ranging between $1500 and $1800.

Spot Gold

Brent Crude remains above $117/barrel, signaling a primary up-trend. Recovery of Nymex WTI above $99/barrel would confirm. Narrow consolidation below the resistance level is a bullish sign.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 116 + ( 116 – 106 ) = 126

The gold-oil ratio is falling. Decline below 10 is a long-term buying signal for gold. In recent years fluctuations have been a lot narrower and a fall below 12 may be sufficient.
Spot Gold

I am not yet convinced that gold is headed for a primary down-trend. Watch out for bear traps. Respect of primary support around $1500 seems as likely — and would present a buying opportunity.

Gold weakens while crude rises

Gold is undergoing a correction on the weekly chart. Breach of support at 1625 would indicate another test of primary support at $1525. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Recovery above $1700 per ounce, however, would indicate that the correction is over.

Spot Gold

Crude oil, however, is rising, with Brent Crude breaking resistance at $117/barrel to signal a primary up-trend. Twiggs Momentum rising above zero already suggests an up-trend. Recovery of Nymex WTI above $99/barrel would confirm.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 116 + ( 116 – 106 ) = 126

Normally gold and crude move together. A divergence would be highlighted by the gold-oil ratio (below). A decline to 10 is normally taken as buying signal, but in recent years fluctuations have been a lot narrower — between 12 and 18.
Spot Gold

Dollar and gold strengthen

The US Dollar Index broke resistance at 83.50, signaling continuation of the primary advance to the 2010 high at 88.50, with an interim target of 86.00*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero reinforces the up-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold shows strong support at $1530 per ounce and penetration of the descending trendline now suggests that a bottom is forming — possibly in anticipation of further QE by the Fed. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of a primary down-trend, while recovery above zero would confirm that a bottom is forming. Breakout below primary support at $1530 would offer a target of $1300*; recovery above $1640 would indicate a new up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

Spot Silver is weaker and continues to test primary support at $26 per ounce. Failure would offer a target of $16*.

Spot Silver

* Target calculation: 26 – ( 36 – 26 ) = 16

The CRB Commodities Index is testing its descending trendline. Breakout would warn that the down-trend is ending, but reversal below 295 would suggest another test of 265. The S&P 500 is likely to follow commodities lower.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 265 – ( 305 – 265 ) = 225

Brent Crude has already penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting that a bottom is forming, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to indicate a primary down-trend. A peak below zero would signal a primary decline to $75 per barrel*.

Brent Crude and Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

Rising dollar but commodities strengthen

The rising dollar suggests weaker gold and commodity prices. The US Dollar Index continues to test resistance at 83.50. Breakout would target the 2010 high at 88.50, with an interim target of 86*, while respect would test support at 81.50. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero indicates a strong up-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold continues to test primary support at $1530 per ounce, while 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breakout would offer a target of $1300*. QE3, however, would start a new up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

Spot Silver is similarly testing primary support at $26 per ounce. Failure would offer a target of $16*.

Spot Silver

* Target calculation: 26 – ( 36 – 26 ) = 16

Commodities, and not just crude oil, however, have rallied strongly. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a strong down-trend and CRB Commodities Index respect of its descending trendline would warn of a decline to 240*. Penetration above the trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that a bottom is forming.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 270 – ( 300 – 270 ) = 240

Brent Crude has already penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting that a bottom is forming, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to indicate a primary down-trend. Recovery of the indicator above zero would strengthen the bull signal, while a peak below zero would signal a primary decline to $75 per barrel*.

Brent Crude and Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

Dollar rises, gold and silver threaten support

The US Dollar Index rallied to test resistance at 83.50. Breakout would target the 2010 high of 88.00. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above the zero line indicates a strong up-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold is consolidating above primary support at $1530 per ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero signals a primary down-trend. Downward breakout would offer a target of $1300*……. unless the Fed introduces QE3.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

Spot Silver is similarly testing primary support at $26 per ounce. Breakout would offer a target of $16*….. again with the QE3 caveat.

Spot Silver

* Target calculation: 26 – ( 36 – 26 ) = 16

Commodities continue in a primary down-trend, warning of a global economic down-turn. Respect of resistance at 295 by the CRB Commodities Index would warn of another primary decline, with a target of 235*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a strong down-trend. Penetration of the descending trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that a bottom is forming.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 265 – ( 295 – 265 ) = 235

Brent Crude is also testing resistance — and the descending trendline — at $100 per barrel. Respect would indicate another decline, with a target of $75 per barrel*. There are two wild cards that could impact on price: tensions with Iran and QE3.

Brent Crude and Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

The gold-oil ratio (measured against Brent crude) is close to its mid-point of 15.0, offering little in the way of overbought/oversold readings for gold over the last  few years (after a false overbought reading — above 20 — in 2009).

Gold/Brent Crude Ratio