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June 26, 2012

What Will Germany Do?

Anatole Kaletsky: With every day that passes, and especially since the French election, it is becoming clearer that the problem country for the euro—the odd man out in terms of economic structure and the chief obstacle to any political resolution of the euro crisis—is not Greece, Spain or Italy. It is Germany. It is Germany that refuses even to talk about mutual debt and banking guarantees. It is Germany that insists on self-defeating fiscal austerity and intolerable political conditions for the debtor countries. It is Germany that vetoes quantitative easing by the ECB, which could cap bond yields and relieve deflationary debt traps. And it is Germany that makes the other euro countries uncompetitive, discourages devaluation of the euro against the dollar and refuses even to relax its own domestic fiscal policies to reduce its trade surplus and support growth….

via John Mauldin’s Outside The Box

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 11, 2012

Europe's nuclear brinkmanship with Greece is a lethal game – Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Polls show that 70pc or even 80pc of Greeks still wish to stay in the euro, while at the same voting in large numbers for hard-Left and hard-Right parties committed to tearing up the Memorandum – a course of action that will take them straight out of the euro.

I do not wish to reproach the Greeks for cognitive dissonance. We all do this, and besides, euro membership is more than just a currency for Greece. It is the anchor of identity for an isolated Balkan nation living cheek by jowl with the Ottoman nemesis……..

The chief danger is not for Greece. It is for the rest of the eurozone. If the German political establishment is unwise enough to force Greece out of EMU on the assumption that the country is a special case, it will be disabused of this illusion very quickly.

via Europe’s nuclear brinkmanship with Greece is a lethal game – Telegraph Blogs.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 10, 2012

German Adjustment – NYTimes.com

Paul Krugman: Germany believes that its successful adjustment was the result of its own virtue, but in reality it was successful in large part because of an inflationary boom in the rest of Europe.

And here’s the thing: the Germans are now demanding that the European periphery replicate its achievement (and actually surpass it, because the required adjustment is much bigger) without providing a comparably favorable environment — they’re demanding that Spain and others do what they never did, which is deflate their way to competitiveness.

This is a road to disaster.

via German Adjustment – NYTimes.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 28, 2012

The World from Berlin: ‘Europe is Pouring Money Into a Bottomless Barrel’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International

In an interview with SPIEGEL published on Monday, [Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich] said: “Greece’s chances to regenerate itself and become competitive are surely greater outside the monetary union than if it remains in the euro area.” He added that he did not support a forced exit. “I’m not talking about throwing Greece out, but rather about creating incentives for an exit that they can’t pass up.” It was the first time a member of the German government called on Greece to leave the currency.

via The World from Berlin: ‘Europe is Pouring Money Into a Bottomless Barrel’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International.

February 15, 2012

Greek death spiral accelerates – Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: This is what a death spiral looks like. It is what can happen if you join a fixed exchange system, then take out very large debts in what amounts to a foreign currency, and then have simultaneous monetary and fiscal contraction imposed upon you.

Germany discovered this on the Gold Standard when it racked up external debt from 1925 to 1929 (owed to American bankers) in much the same way as Greece has done.

When the music stopped – ie. when the Fed raised rates from 1928 onwards – Germany blew apart in much the same way as Greece is blowing apart. This is not a cultural or anthropological issue. It is the mechanical consequence of capital flows into a country that cannot handle it, as Germany could not handle it in the late 1920s.

via Greek death spiral accelerates – Telegraph Blogs.

December 6, 2011

FRBSF Economic Letter: Asset Price Booms and Current Account Deficits

Just as the United States was not the only country posting a large current account deficit, so too it was not the only country that experienced asset price booms. Figure 2 shows that countries with large current account deficits in 2006 also tended to have larger house price increases. Of course, there are exceptions. For example, China has experienced rapid house price appreciation despite its enormous current account surplus. But, in general, house price appreciation and current account deficits appear to have been positively associated across many countries.

via FRBSF Economic Letter: Asset Price Booms and Current Account Deficits (2011-37, 12/5/2011).

Colin Twiggs: ~ There appears to be a general rule that large current account deficits lead to asset price booms. But to prove the rule researchers need to address why Japan experienced a massive asset price boom in the 1980s, and why China experienced a similar boom over the last decade, when both were running current account surpluses.

November 26, 2011

Euro Pressures Mount–Necessary for Eventual Resolution | Credit Writedowns

Germany is using this crisis to tighten its hegemony in Europe. It needs to close the fiscal loopholes. Many have recognized that this was a necessary birth defect in EMU–monetary union without fiscal union. A fiscal union–where countries, especially those that struggle to adhere to the Stability and Growth rule, have to cede a greater degree of fiscal autonomy. This will take the form not of German officials, but EU Commissioners having greater say in the fiscal policies of the debtors.

via Euro Pressures Mount–Necessary for Eventual Resolution | Credit Writedowns.

November 24, 2011

Merkel Rejects Rapid Action on the Euro – NYTimes.com

PARIS — Quashing recent speculation of a softening in Germany’s hard-line stance on the euro, Chancellor Angela Merkel repeated on Thursday her firm opposition either to bonds issued jointly by the euro zone countries or to an expansion of the role of the European Central Bank as quick responses to the sovereign debt crisis.

“Nothing has changed in my position,” she said at a news conference…..[but] The German newspaper Bild reported Thursday that the Merkel government was inching towards accepting so-called eurobonds, at least in some form, even if the public stance remained against them, and that some of her party said they could be a tradeoff for treaty changes.

via Merkel Rejects Rapid Action on the Euro – NYTimes.com.

Colin Twiggs: ~ I am getting a sense that Angela Merkel already knows the outcome. As a consummate negotiator she is using the debt crisis to force her EU colleagues to make concessions that in normal times would be politically unthinkable. Germany does not want to abandon the euro which has served them well over the last two decades. They also does not want to risk inflation — so an ECB solution is ruled out. But euro-bonds may be acceptable to the German public — provided that there are strict controls throughout the EMU to ensure fiscal discipline. That, I suspect, is her desired outcome — she just has to make her EU counterparts feel the heat long enough that they fully appreciate the concessions she makes — and do not start back-tracking on their commitments.

November 23, 2011

German Bond Auction Spurs Worries – WSJ.com

A German government debt auction drew some of the weakest demand since the introduction of the euro, signaling diminishing investor appetite for even the safest euro-zone assets amid Europe’s worsening debt crisis….The German government was able to sell only €3.644 billion $4.92 billion of the €6 billion in 10-year bunds on auction for an average yield of 1.98%. Interest rates on Germany’s 10-year bonds rose sharply after the auction to 2.09%, their highest level in three weeks, leapfrogging the yield on the U.S. 10-year note.

via German Bond Auction Spurs Worries – WSJ.com.

November 20, 2011

Europe: breach of medium-term support would signal decline

Italy’s MIB index is testing medium-term support at 15000 on the weekly chart. Failure — and respect of the descending trendline — would warn of another decline, with a target of 9000*. Breach of primary support at 13000 would confirm.

FTSE MIB Index

* Target calculation: 13 − ( 17 − 13 ) = 9

France’s CAC-40 index is similarly testing support at 3000. Breach of support would warn of another decline — as would reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero. Failure of primary support at 2700 would offer a target of 2000*.

CAC-40 Index

* Target calculation: 2700 – ( 3400 − 2700 ) = 2000

The DAX is also testing medium-term support. Reversal below 5600 would warn of another test of primary support at 5000. Failure of 5000 would offer a target of 3600*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6400 − 5000 ) = 3600

Even the FTSE 100 index is testing medium-term support. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow looks stronger than its European neighbors, but reversal below zero would warn of a further decline. Breach of medium-term support at 5350 would warn of a test of primary support at 4800.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 4800 – ( 5600 − 4800 ) = 4000