GDP Archives - Page 3 of 4 - the patient investor

July 31, 2014

China: The best way to manipulate GDP is to lower inflation

From George Dorgan:

The best way to push real GDP upwards is, hence, to understate inflation via the GDP deflator. Lombard Street Research assumes that Chinese officials followed that approach:

Via Wall Street Journal Blogs
Lombard Street Research, a London economic research firm that takes a bearish view on China, constructs its own version of the country’s GDP. Lombard’s conclusion: China’s economy grew just 6.1% in the fourth quarter of 2013, year-over-year, down from 7.5% the previous quarter. That compares with the 7.7% fourth-quarter increase reported by China’s statistics bureau, which was down a smidgen from 7.8% in the third quarter.

The main difference between Lombard’s numbers and the official numbers, said Lombard economist Diana Choyleva, is the estimation of China’s inflation. GDP is reported in real—that is, inflation adjusted — terms. If China’s inflation is higher than reported, its GDP growth will be lower.

May 7, 2014

Is the market overpriced? Episode II

Using Warren Buffett’s favorite broad market valuation metric of market capitalisation over GDP*, we can see valuations are on the high side, near to levels from early 2006, but nowhere near the alarming bubble of two years later. The Dotcom bubble (not shown) was even more severe.

NYSE Market Cap/Nominal GNP

*I have used GNP (or GNI as some call it) as this more accurately includes offshore income.

Australian investors will be relieved to find the ASX, at 100, reflects fair value. Even if we ignore the 2007 property/resources bubble.

ASX Market Cap/Nominal GNP

March 14, 2014

Redistribution boosts consumption, not output | Richmond Fed

Abstract from a February 28, 2014 paper by Kartik Athreya, Andrew Owens, and Felipe Schwartzman:

The aftermath of the recent recession has seen numerous calls to use transfers to poorer households as a means to enhance aggregate activity. We show that the key to understanding the direction and size of such interventions lies in labor supply decisions. We study the aggregate impact of short-term redistributive economic policy in a standard incomplete-markets model. We characterize analytically conditions under which redistribution leads to an increase or decrease in eﬀective hours worked, and hence, output. We then show that under the parameterization that matches the wealth distribution in the U.S. economy (Castaneda et al., 2003),wealth redistribution leads to a boom in consumption, but not in output.

February 5, 2014

Commodity prices effect on corporate profits

Sharp spikes in the US Industrial Commodities PPI (producer price index) often precede a drop in Corporate Profits (expressed below as a ratio to GDP). And sharp falls in the PPI tend to precipitate a surge in profits.

US Corporate Profits/GDP compared to Industrial Commodities PPI - 5 Years

The 5-year chart above shows PPI growth close to zero since 2012. With wages, raw material costs and interest rates near long-term lows, there is little wonder that corporate profits have surged. The question is: how long will the three remain low? That depends on how fast the global economy recovers. And how long rising demand (from the recovery) is able to withstand rising input costs.

For the chartists: A Long-term View

A long-term view of Corporate Profits/GDP compared to Industrial Commodities PPI shows the relationship is not a perfect inverse, but profits clearly tend to run counter to the rate of PPI growth.

US Corporate Profits/GDP compared to Industrial Commodities PPI

February 24, 2013

Scott Minerd: The Keynesian Depression | John Mauldin

Scott Minerd, Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim Funds, writes:

Though some may be cheered by the relative policy successes this time around, at the current trajectory it will still take almost as long for total employment to fully recover as it did in the 1930s. While job loss was not as severe this time, the recovery in job creation has been much slower. Although nominal and real gross domestic production have returned to new highs on a per capita basis, we are still below 2007 levels. In the same way the Great Depression and the depressions before it lasted eight to 10 years, we will likely continue to see constrained economic growth until 2015-2016 roughly nine years after U.S. home prices began to slide.

February 5, 2013

CBO Sees Rising U.S. Debt, Economic Rebound in 2014 | WSJ.com

DAMIAN PALETTA at WSJ writes:

Economic growth and recent legislation have cut the federal budget deficit in half in the past four years, but federal debt will still hit historic levels if more isn’t done, the Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday in the annual update of its budget and economic forecast.

The CBO said it expected economic growth to be sluggish in 2013, in part because of a sharp drop in government spending, but it sees a better economy in 2014 as the recovery takes hold.

via CBO Sees Rising U.S. Debt, Economic Rebound in 2014 – WSJ.com.

November 5, 2012

Explain the disease to help US citizens – FT.com

This must-read opinion by Richard Koo explains the impact US private sector saving — a staggering 8 per cent of gross domestic product — has on the US economy.

“….. if left unattended, the economy will continuously lose aggregate demand equivalent to the unborrowed savings. In other words, even though repairing balance sheets is the right and responsible thing to do, if everyone tries to do it at the same time a deflationary spiral will result. It was such a deflationary spiral that cost the US 46 per cent of its GDP from 1929 to 1933.”

via Explain the disease to help US citizens – FT.com.

October 30, 2012

Chinese TV Host Says Regime Nearly Bankrupt | Epoch Times

A sobering assessment of China’s economy reported by Matthew Robertson:

Larry Lang, chair professor of Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said in a lecture that he didn’t think was being recorded that the Chinese regime is in a serious economic crisis — on the brink of bankruptcy.

The youtube audio requires translation:

http://youtu.be/comHcv7qSBg

Robertson summarizes Lang’s assessment into five key points:

The regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion).
The real inflation rate is 16 percent, not 6.2 percent as claimed.
There is serious excess capacity in the economy, and private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity.
Published GDP of 9 percent is also fabricated. According to Lang, GDP has contracted 10 percent.
Taxes are too high. Last year, direct and indirect taxes on businesses amounted to 70 percent of earnings…..

via Chinese TV Host Says Regime Nearly Bankrupt | Business & Economy | China | Epoch Times.

September 13, 2012

Household Income Falls to Lowest Point Since 1995

By YUVAL ROSENBERG, The Fiscal Times:

Median household incomes adjusted for inflation fell 1.5 percent to $50,054. That’s 8.1 percent lower than it had been in 2007, the year before the recession, and almost 9 percent lower than the peak income level reached in 1999. The last time median household income was lower was 1995 – meaning it’s been a lost decade and a half for Americans looking to get ahead.

The gross domestic product has gone from $7.4 trillion to $15.1 trillion in current-dollar terms over that time, suggesting that families have fallen behind even as the economy has expanded.

via Household Income Falls to Lowest Point Since 1995.

September 12, 2012

Australia: Company tax payments down almost 40%

David Uren from The Australian, as quoted by Mark the Graph:

Last week’s national accounts show company tax payments have fallen from an all-time peak of 6.2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007 as Peter Costello delivered his last budget, to just 3.8 per cent in the June quarter. This is the lowest share since September 1996, when Costello delivered his first budget. It is less than during the global financial crisis and erodes all the gains in corporate taxation tapped by both governments to finance personal tax cuts, increased family benefits, higher pensions, greater education spending and much more during the past 16 years. No wonder the budget is in deficit.

View some great charts from the National Accounts at Mark the Graph: Tax chartacular.