Pettis: Australia should be pessimistic | MacroBusiness

Michael Pettis writes about the latest Australian government White Paper Australia in the Asian Century that projects an average 7% GDP growth rate for China between 2012 and 2025:

This seems to put the Australian government among the most optimistic in the market when it comes to long-term growth expectations for China. I have always assumed that government projections should generally be on the pessimistic side to prepare for unexpected negative shocks (positive shocks can take care of themselves), but apparently not. I am glad to say that my own conversations with Australian government officials lead me to believe that this White Paper may represent the official view of the government, but it does not represent the private views of all Australian government officials…….

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