Tag: FTSE 100

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European breakout

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 — representing 50 leading stocks in the Eurozone — broke long-term resistance at 3000, while the 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a healthy up-trend. Expect retracement to test the new support level; respect would signal a primary advance, while failure would test 2850, warning of a bull trap.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500

The FTSE 100 is also strengthening, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating buying pressure. Breakout above 6700 would indicate an advance to 7000*. Reversal below support at 6400 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

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Europe on the rise

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 — representing 50 leading stocks in the Eurozone — is advancing strongly, with a 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggesting a healthy up-trend. Breakout above 2800 offers a target of 3200*. Reversal below 2850 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the long-term rising trendline.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 2850 + ( 2850 – 2500 ) = 3200

The FTSE 100 threatened a primary down-trend after breaching primary support at 6400, but this proved a false break and recovery above 6400 now suggests a rally to 6650/6700. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 6700 would indicate an advance to 7000*, but reversal below support at 6400, while less likely, would warn of a correction to 6000.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

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FTSE breaks primary support

The FTSE 100 broke support at 6400, signaling a primary down-trend. Penetration of the rising trendline would strengthen the signal. Expect a test of the June low at 6000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow highlights strong selling pressure; crossover to below zero would further strengthen the signal. Recovery above 6400 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

FTSE 100

Germany’s DAX is a lot more bullish, testing the new support level at 8500. Respect would offer a medium-term target of 9300*. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7500/7600.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7700 ) = 9300

France’s CAC-40 is similarly testing new support at 4100. Recovery above its 2011 high of 4200 would offer a target of 4400*. Reversal below 3900 is unlikely but would warn of a test of primary support at 3600.

CAC-40

* Target calculation: 4000 + ( 4000 – 3600 ) = 4400

Spain’s Madrid General Index is even stronger, with no hint of retracement while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Retracement that respects support at 900 would confirm an advance to 1050*. Reversal below 900 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

Italy’s MIB Index broke through resistance at 17500/18000, signaling a primary advance to 20000*. Successive troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggest a strong primary up-trend. Reversal below 17500 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 15000 ) = 20000

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European markets retrace, but FTSE bearish

European markets are consolidating after recent gains with the exception of Italy, which is suffering from political instability, while the FTSE 100 displays persistent selling pressure.

The FTSE 100 is heading for a test of primary support at 6400, having broken medium-term support at 6500. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow after a lengthy period below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure; bearish divergence on the 13-week indicator also warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support at 6400 would signal a primary down-trend; respect is unlikely, but would suggest another test of 6700.

FTSE 100

Germany’s DAX retraced to the new support level at 8500. Respect would offer a medium-term target of 9000* and a long-term target of 9400*. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7600.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 8000 ) = 9000 ; 8500 + ( 8500 – 7600 ) = 9400

France’s CAC-40 is similarly testing support at 4100. Recovery above its 2011 high of 4200 would offer an immediate target of 4300* and a long-term target of 4500*. Reversal below 3900 is unlikely but would warn of a test of primary support at 3600.

CAC-40

* Target calculation: 4100 + ( 4100 – 3900 ) = 4300 ; 4050 + ( 4050 – 3600 ) = 4500

Spain’s Madrid General Index displays healthy buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Retracement that respects support at 900 would confirm a long-term advance to 1050*. Reversal below 900 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

Italy’s MIB Index is weaker, following a rift between Prime Minister Enrico Letta and his coalition partner, Silvio Berlusconi. Follow-through below the rising trendline would test support at 16500. Recovery above 18000, on the other hand, would signal a primary advance with a long-term target of 20000*.

MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 15000 ) = 20000

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Europe: Bullish except for FTSE

European markets continue to display healthy primary up-trends with the exception of the FTSE 100 which warns of selling pressure.

Germany’s DAX broke through medium-term resistance at 8500, offering a medium-term target of 9000* and a long-term target of 9500*. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7500.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 8000 ) = 9000 ; 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

France’s CAC-40 is testing resistance at its 2011 high of 4200. Retracement to short-term support at 4100 is likely. Respect of support would be a bullish sign, while breakout above 4200 would offer an immediate target of 4300* and a long-term target of 4500*. Reversal below 3900 is unlikely but would warn of a bull trap.

CAC-40

* Target calculation: 4100 + ( 4100 – 3900 ) = 4300 ; 4050 + ( 4050 – 3600 ) = 4500

Spain’s Madrid General Index followed through above 900, but is now retracing to test the new support level. Respect would confirm a long-term advance to 1050* (960* in the medium-term). Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 840 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050 ; 900 + ( 900 – 840 ) = 960

Italy’s MIB Index is testing resistance at 18000. Retracement to support at 17500 is likely, but respect would be bullish. Breakout above 18000 would offer an immediate target of 18500 and a long-term target of 20000*. Reversal below 16500 is most unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 15000 ) = 20000

Bearish divergence on the FTSE 100 (13-week Twiggs Money Flow) warns of strong selling pressure. Reversal below 6400 would warn of a primary down-trend, confirmed if the rising trendline is broken. Reversal of TMF below zero would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 6750 is unlikely, but would signal a medium-term advance to the 1999 high of 7000.

FTSE 100

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European rally follows US lead

The S&P 500 Index penetrated its descending trendline, indicating the correction has ended. Follow-through above 1650 would signal a primary advance to 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The FTSE 100 broke through medium-term resistance at 6400, confirming the correction has ended, after earlier penetrating its descending trendline. Follow-through above 6500 (from the March 2013 peak) would strengthen the signal, indicating an advance to 6900. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would also strengthen the signal. In the long term, breakout above 7000 would offer a target of 8000*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 8000. Breakout above that and the declining trendline would signal another primary advance, with a target of 9300*. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Respect of resistance and reversal below 7700 is less likely, but would warn of a test of prmary support at 7400.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7700 ) = 9300

Italy’s MIB Index is consolidating below resistance at 16000. Penetration of the declining trendline suggests the correction is over. Breach of resistance would signal an advance to 18000.  Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would test primary support at 15000.
FTSE 100 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index broke resistance at 800 and its descending trendline, indicating the correction is over. We still need to watch the weak 21-day Twiggs Money Flow: a peak below zero would indicate selling pressure, but recovery above zero would suggest a fresh advance. Respect of the new support level at 800 would confirm an advance to 870. Reversal below 800, while unlikely, would warn of another test of primary support at 750.
FTSE 100 Index

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Europe: Under pressure

European stocks are under pressure, with Dow Jones Europe Index again likely to test support at 270. Failure would warn of a reversal, while breakout above 290 would signal a fresh advance. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate continuation of the primary up-trend.
DAX Index

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test the lower border of the recent flag on the weekly chart. Breach would warn of a correction to test 6000. Respect is less likely, but breakout above 6550 would indicate an advance to 6800*.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 6000 ) = 6800

European markets may be under pressure, but they have not buckled. Expect further tests of support, but so far the primary up-trend is not threatened.

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S&P 500 and Europe: Likely to blow over

Question: Is the outcry in Europe going to tip the S&P 500 into a correction?

Answer: The outcome is uncertain. While there is a strong case for giving depositors and bondholders a haircut, the timing — so soon after an inconclusive Italian election — could not be worse. But let’s see what the market are saying….

Longish tail on the S&P 500 shows buying support at the close. Mild bearish divergence (mild because TMF has leveled out rather than falling sharply) on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. We are likely to see retracement to the first line of support — at the previous high of 1525/1530 — but only breach of this level and the rising trendline would warn of a correction. Target for the current advance is 1600*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1525 + ( 1525 – 1475 ) = 1575

VIX Volatility Index remains low — near its 2005 lows at 0.10. Breakout above 0.20 would be a warn of rising uncertainty.
VIX Index
The FTSE 100 exhibits an even longer tail, but bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow also indicates medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below the latest rising trendline (6400) would warn of a correction, while breakout above 6550 would continue the advance to 6800*.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 6000 ) = 6800

The DAX showed even greater resilience, closing back above 8000. Follow-through above 8100 would signal a fresh primary advance. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.
DAX Index

Conclusion

There is bound to be some turbulence but markets are showing resilience and the storm is likely to blow over.

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Stocks: The year ahead

A quick recap of the quarterly chart overview from December 2012:

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high at 1550. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum and a lackluster economy suggest that resistance is unlikely to be broken. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate a test of support at 1100.

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX Composite Index is gaining momentum. Follow-through above 13000 would indicate another test of 15000.

Apple

Germany’s DAX threatens a breakout above 8000. Follow-through above 8200 would confirm a strong primary advance.

DAX Index

The FTSE 100 broke resistance at 6000, suggesting an advance to 7000.

FTSE 100 Index

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 21000. Rising momentum indicates breakout is likely, heralding a fresh primary advance.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index lags behind, but breakout above 3300 is likely and would indicate an advance to 3900.

Apple

The Shanghai Composite is headed for a re-test of long-term support at 1800/1750. Rising momentum suggests that a bottom will form at this level. Recovery above 2500 and/or the declining trendline would strengthen the signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5000, supported by rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breakout would signal an advance to 6000, but weakness in China or the US may delay this for some time.

ASX 200 Index

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Stocks: Outlook for 2013

Quarterly charts for the last two decades give a good idea of where stocks will be headed in 2013.

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high at 1550. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates that resistance is unlikely to be broken. While this does not mean another fall to 750, it does suggest a strong correction.

S&P 500 Index

Apple Inc. [AAPL] is no longer leading the advance but testing primary support at 500. Failure of support would confirm the primary down-trend indicated by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero.

Apple

Germany’s DAX is also headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high, at 8200, but rising momentum indicates that breakout above resistance is likely.

DAX Index

The FTSE 100 is also advancing but is some way off its earlier high of 7000 and breakout appears unlikely.

FTSE 100 Index

India’s Sensex is more bullish and likely to break resistance at 21000.

BSE Sensex Index

The Shanghai Composite is headed in the opposite direction and likely to re-test long-term support at 1800/1750. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) suggests that a bottom will form at this level.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5000, supported by rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breakout would signal an advance to 6000, but weakness in China and the US may delay this for some time.

ASX 200 Index

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