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April 16, 2012

Fedex double top

Bellwether transport stock Fedex completed a double top reversal with a break through the neckline at $88. Retracement found resistance at $90 and reversal below the original neckline at $88 would signal a primary down-trend. Follow-through below Tuesday’s low would confirm. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. A primary down-trend on Fedex normally warns of slowing activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

April 11, 2012

Fedex warns of economic slow-down

Bellwether transport stock Fedex completed a double top reversal, breaking through the neckline at $88. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow already warns of strong selling pressure. Follow-through below medium-term support at $85 would confirm a primary down-trend. A declining Fedex is associated with lower transport volumes and slowing activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

Bearish divergence for US indices

Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 – 1150) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 index encountered resistance at 2800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow over the last two weeks warns of a correction. Breach of the secondary, rising trendline would indicate a correction to the long-term trendline at 2500.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 -2050 ) = 2750

Bellwether transport stock Fedex warns of a double-top reversal. Longer-term bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support at 88 would signal a primary down-trend — and declining activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 88 – ( 98 – 88 ) = 78

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 24, 2012

Secondary correction, but watch Fedex

The weekly S&P 500 chart suggests retracement to the new support level at 1370. No major deviation on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates this is merely a secondary correction. Respect of 1350 would signal a primary advance. Long-term target for the breakout is 1600*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1350 + ( 1350 – 1100 ) = 1600

Nasdaq 100 Index similarly displays a bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow but no major deviation on the 13-week indicator, suggesting a secondary correction to the long-term rising trendline.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2050 ) = 2750

Bellwether transport stock Fedex, however, displays a stronger bearish divergence, on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Failure of support at 88.00 would indicate reversal to a primary down-trend; follow-through below 86.00 would confirm. A Fedex down-trend would warn that economic activity is slowing.

Fedex

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 22, 2012

FedEx Pares Global GDP Outlook as Slowdown Damps Profit Forecast- Bloomberg

FedEx said express shipments declined both domestically and internationally because of “below-trend” growth. The operator of the world’s biggest cargo airline said it was parking an unspecified number of planes, paring flight hours and reviewing domestic capacity.

“We just don’t have a strong economy as we had hoped it would be a year ago,” Chief Financial Officer Alan Graf said on an earnings call. “The economic environment and the elasticity that we’re seeing on our premium services from the high-fuel costs” are weighing on this quarter’s earnings outlook.

via FedEx Pares Global GDP Outlook as Slowdown Damps Profit Forecast- Bloomberg.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 3, 2012

US stocks bullish

Dow Jones Industrial Average consolidating in a narrow range below resistance at 13,000 suggests an upward breakout and continuation of the primary up-trend. Strong values on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 12200 + ( 12200 – 11200 ) = 13200

The S&P 500 displays a strong primary up-trend on 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breakout above 1370 would complete the picture, offering a medium-term target of 1450*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 is building up a head of froth and is due for a correction to test support at 2400. Breach of the secondary rising trendline would give an early warning. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of long-term weakness.
Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650

Bellwether transport stock Fedex continues in a primary up-trend, though rising oil prices could spoil the party. Respect of the rising trendline would reinforce the up-trend.

Fedex

Bear in mind that we are experiencing a lot of window-dressing ahead of the November election. The Fed is suppressing long-term interest rates, making stocks a more attractive alternative (the lesser of two evils). While ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan points out that retail sales, the true driver of economic recovery, remain soft. There are some positive signs, however, so follow the rally by all means — but with caution. This is not another massive bull market like the 1990s. Not without a strong rise in debt levels — which is most unlikely. Markets will remain risk-averse for most of this decade — as long as it takes to clean up the mess.

January 19, 2012

US breakout

The S&P 500 index followed through to confirm the breakout above resistance at 1300, signaling the start of a primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Target for the advance is 1440*.

S&P500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1160 ) = 1440

Nasdaq 100 shows a stronger breakout above 2400, with similar buying pressure reflected on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Initial target for the primary advance is 2600*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2200 ) = 2600

Bellwether transport stocks, Fedex and UPS, reinforce the S&P and Nasdaq signal with new highs signaling a primary up-trend.

Fedex and UPS
Always bear in mind that the primary up-trend rests on unstable foundations (private sector deleveraging offset by deep government sector deficits) and may not last much longer than the November elections.

December 16, 2011

FedEx Profit Climbs 76% – NYTimes.com

FedEx expects continued moderate economic growth, with trade flows staying volatile, executives told analysts in a conference call after the company reported results on Thursday.

FedEx, driven by online holiday orders, delivered about 17 million packages on Dec. 12 — twice the average daily shipments — in what was its busiest day in its 40-year history.

via FedEx Profit Climbs 76% – NYTimes.com.

October 24, 2011

E-Commerce Shipments to Drive Record FedEx Holiday Volume | FedEx Global Newsroom

MEMPHIS, Tenn., Oct. 24, 2011 – FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) expects to move more than 17 million shipments – almost double its daily average volume – through its global networks on December 12, the projected busiest day in company history. The 10 percent year-over-year increase will be driven by FedEx SmartPost, a residential shipping service designed for online and catalog retailers, as well as expected increased volume at FedEx Ground and FedEx Home Delivery.

via E-Commerce Shipments to Drive Record FedEx Holiday Volume | FedEx Global Newsroom.

October 17, 2011

Fedex & UPS

Bellwether transport stock Fedex displays a bear market rally with a target of 80. UPS is even stronger, having broken out from its trading range of the last 2 months to signal a re-test of its 2011 high. Not enough to indicate an up-turn but encouraging all the same.

Fedex and UPS