Two interesting tables from ZeroHedge. First, is the projected increase in supply of key critical materials needed to achieve global net zero increase in CO2 emissions (NZE) by 2040:
Second, is the expected supply shortfall by 2030:
Industrial Metals are currently in a bear market, with DJ Industrial Metals Index ($BIM) testing long-term support at 150. Breach would offer a target of 110.
Conclusion
Now may not be an opportune time to accumulate critical materials stocks but keep watch. Sooner or later, demand growth is likely to resume — as electrification and EV sales grow — leading to a supply shortfall as projected in 2030 above.
Acknowledgements
- Energy Transitions Commission: Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition, July 2023
- ZeroHedge: Skyrocketing Battery Mineral Demand Set to Outpace Supply By 2023, February 14, 2024
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.