The work of John Maynard Keynes shows us that counter-cyclical fiscal policy and an easing of austerity may offer a way out of the Eurozone crisis. | EUROPP

Simon Wren-Lewis, professor at Oxford University and a Fellow of Merton College, says the ECB failed to undertake quantitative easing at the appropriate time because of mis-diagnosis of the problem:

The story told by many is that the Eurozone crisis is a result of fiscal profligacy in some countries, and the need to put that right quickly because of market pressure. This account misses two essential underlying causes of the crisis, which have to be recognised if a solution is to be found. The first missing element ….. private sector demand was too strong, encouraged by large capital inflows from abroad and real estate bubbles…..The second key feature of the current crisis is also a result of excess private sector demand in periphery countries, and that is a banking crisis.

……There is an underlying pattern behind Eurozone policy errors. They reflect a view that macroeconomic difficulties are primary due to bad government decisions, while private sector decisions within a free market environment do not create problems. Whatever label we want to give this view (Ordoliberal or Anti-Keynesian), it is the fundamental cause of the current Eurozone crisis. Its persistence despite all the contrary evidence allows the crisis to continue and threatens the integrity of the Eurozone itself.

via The work of John Maynard Keynes shows us that counter-cyclical fiscal policy and an easing of austerity may offer a way out of the Eurozone crisis. | EUROPP.

Germany backs Draghi bond plan against Bundesbank – Telegraph

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,
9:39PM BST 20 Aug 2012

“A currency can only be stable if its future existence is not in doubt,” said Jörg Asmussen, the powerful German member of the ECB’s executive board. He signalled full backing for the bond rescue plan of ECB chief Mario Draghi, brushing aside warnings from the German Bundesbank that large-scale purchases would amount to debt monetisation and a back-door fiscal rescue of insolvent states in breach of EU treaty law.

via Germany backs Draghi bond plan against Bundesbank – Telegraph.

ECB’s Nowotny Cautions Against ‘Single-Minded’ Austerity – Real Time Economics – WSJ

“The single-minded concentration on austerity policy (in the 1930s) led to mass unemployment, a breakdown of democratic systems and, at the end, to the catastrophe of Nazism,” said Ewald Nowotny [Austria’s central bank governor and member of ECB governing council] at a financial conference in Vienna. He added that central bankers during the start of the financial crisis had been very keen to avoid the mistakes of the 1930s.

Mr. Nowotny also cautioned against trying to impose a “moralistic” solution to the euro zone’s current debt problems. “It is not about punishing children who have behaved badly,” he said, adding that it was important not to let the concept of moral hazard turn into an excuse for not taking “practical initiatives.”

via ECB’s Nowotny Cautions Against ‘Single-Minded’ Austerity – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

The Euro Crisis Makes Absolutely No Sense – Brett Arends (WSJ)

WSJ: Mean Street

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Brett Arends exposes flaws in Eurozone efforts to resolve the currency crisis.

Agenda: Greek Situation Is Most Serious of Latest Euro Crisis – WSJ.com

Friday provided the markets with two reminders that the euro crisis hasn’t gone away. The decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade nine members of the euro zone, including France being stripped of its Triple-A rating and Italy being downgraded to Triple-B, had been widely expected.

But the collapse of the negotiations between Greece and its private-sector bondholders over a voluntary write-down of its debt wasn’t anticipated. The International Institute of Finance, which is negotiating on behalf of bondholders, said it hadn’t been able to agree a deal.

via Agenda: Greek Situation Is Most Serious of Latest Euro Crisis – WSJ.com.

Causes of the Crisis: Basel II

Why do they [European financial institutions] hold so much Greek government debt? Because under Basel II, implemented (outside the United States) in 2007, Greek government bonds, rated A-, had the same 20 percent risk weight as AA/AAA asset-backed securities in the United States. That is, until S&P downgraded Greek debt from A- to BBB+. That raised the risk weight to 50 percent, suddenly requiring 60 percent more capital from banks holding Greek bonds.

This appears to be the reason that the possibility of Greek default has led to fears of another banking crisis.

via Causes of the Crisis: February 2010.

The 20 percent risk weight required banks to only hold $2 of bank capital against a $100 security — at the 8 percent Basel rate for adequately capitalized banks — allowing 50 to 1 leverage compared to 12.5 to 1 on normal bank loans.