This long-term semi-log chart of the dollar against the yen puts the current rally into perspective. Expect resistance at ¥100. Breakout would signal reversal of the 40-year down-trend, while respect would indicate another test of ¥75.
Euro finds new support
The Euro is testing its new support level at $1.35 on the weekly chart. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum (above zero) strengthens the signal. Reversal below $1.32 and the rising trendline is unlikely but would indicate a bull trap — and test of primary support at $1.20.
Euro up-trend
The Euro is headed for a test of resistance at $1.35 on the monthly chart. Breakout would confirm the primary up-trend. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum (above zero) strengthens the signal. Reversal below $1.30 and the rising trendline, however, would indicate another test of primary support at $1.20.
Euro advances
The Euro is advancing against the weakening dollar. Target for the advance is the long-term declining trendline on the monthly chart — around $1.40. A primary up-trend is signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero.
Sterling threatens euro down-trend
Pound Sterling broke its long-term rising trendline against the euro and is testing support at €1.225 on the weekly chart. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm. Respect of support is most unlikely, but would test €1.260 in the medium-term.
* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.28 – 1.23 ) = 1.18
Gold breaks $1700
Gold broke support at $1700 per ounce, indicating a test of primary support at $1675. Breakout would offer an initial target of $1600*, with a long-term target of the May 2012 low at $1525. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates weakness but values above zero still reflect a primary up-trend and the weakening dollar suggests strong support.
* Target calculation: 1675 – ( 1750 – 1675 ) = 1600
The Dollar Index broke medium-term support at 80 on the weekly chart while the dollar is approaching its September low against the euro. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero indicates a primary down-trend — confirmed if primary support at 78.50 is broken. Recovery above 81.50 is most unlikely but would indicate an advance to 84.
* Target calculation: 78.5 – ( 81.5 – 78.5 ) = 75.5
The daily chart shows retracement to confirm resistance at 80.
Gold long tail as dollar retreats
Yesterday’s long tail on the spot gold daily chart indicates support at $1700 per ounce. Recovery above $1750 would signal another test of $1800. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum well above zero continues to indicate a healthy up-trend. A weakening dollar would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1700 ) = 1900
The Dollar Index (weekly chart) is testing medium-term support at 80. Failure would threaten a head-and-shoulders reversal. Breach of primary support at 78.50 would offer a target of 74*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero already suggests a primary down-trend. Recovery above 81.50 is unlikely but would indicate an advance to 84.
* Target calculation: 79 – ( 84 – 79 ) = 74
The DJ-UBS Commodity Index (weekly chart) respected support at 140, helped by the weaker dollar. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend but reversal would re-test primary support at 126.
Nymex WTI Light Crude and ICE Brent Crude both trend downwards but the gap between the two is widening. Middle East tensions affect Brent Crude supply more than its West Texas cousin. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would confirm: WTI at $78 per barrel and Brent Crude at $90.
Euro recovers
The Euro is testing its long-term descending trendline in response to the weakening dollar. Breakout above $1.315/$1.32 would confirm the primary up-trend signaled earlier by 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero.
* Target calculation: 1.315 + ( 1.315 – 1.265 ) = 1.365
Euro and Aussie Dollar long tails
The Euro reversed direction in response to the weakening dollar, breaking resistance at $1.28 to indicate another test of $1.31/$1.32. Respect of the new support level would confirm.
The Aussie Dollar likewise displays evidence of buying pressure, with long tails below resistance at $1.04. Breakout would offer a target of $1.06*. Reversal of of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero, however, would warn of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.04 + ( 1.04 – 1.02 ) = 1.06
Gold strengthens as dollar retreats
Long tails on the last two days of the spot gold daily chart indicate strong support at $1700 per ounce. Breakout above $1740 would indicate another test of $1800. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum well above zero suggests a healthy up-trend. A weakening dollar would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1700 ) = 1900
The Dollar Index (weekly chart) retreated below resistance at 81. Follow-through below 80 would test primary support at 78.50, while failure of primary support would complete a head-and-shoulders reversal with a target of 74*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero already suggests a primary down-trend. Breakout above 81.50 is unlikely but would indicate an advance to 84.
* Target calculation: 79 – ( 84 – 79 ) = 74
The DJ-UBS Commodity Index (weekly chart) respected support at 140. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a primary up-trend. A weakening dollar would strengthen the signal, while breakout above 152 would confirm. Breach of 140 is unlikely but would test primary support at 126.
Nymex WTI Light Crude and ICE Brent Crude are both trending downward. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak at zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would confirm: WTI at $78 per barrel and Brent Crude at $90.
