Tag: Euro

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Forex: Euro rallies, Yen weakens, Aussie consolidates

The Euro continues to test medium-term resistance at $1.32 on the weekly chart. Breakout above $1.32 would suggest a primary advance, with a target of $1.40* — confirmed if resistance at $1.34 is broken. But oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero does not indicate a strong trend and respect of resistance remains as likely.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

The greenback recovered above long-term support at ¥100 against the Yen, indicating continuation of the advance, with a target of ¥114*. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would confirm. Reversal below ¥100 is unlikely, but would warn of a test primary support at ¥94; confirmed if support at ¥98.50 is broken.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie broke resistance at $0.96, suggesting a rally to the descending trendline and resistance at $0.98 against the greenback. Reversal below $0.96, however, would warn of another test of support at $0.9450. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum declining while below zero reflects a healthy primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar is consolidating below medium-term resistance at $0.93 against the greenback. Breakout would signal a rally to the primary trendline at $0.96. But the primary trend remains downward and respect of $0.93 would re-test $0.90. The long-term target remains at $0.80* against the greenback. The RBA favors a softer dollar to cushion the impact of falling commodity prices.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

The impact of the declining resources sector is reflected in the primary down-trend on the Aussie/New Zealand Dollar cross. AUDNZD is approaching its target of $1.15 and breakout above the descending trendline would indicate a rally to test resistance at $1.21. But respect of $1.21 would be likely, suggesting another downward leg on the Aussie/Kiwi cross.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.21 – ( 1.27 – 1.21 ) = 1.15

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Forex: Dollar falls sharply against Euro, Aussie, Loonie and Yen

The dollar fell sharply against the Euro and Sterling. The Euro jumped from primary support at $1.28 to medium-term resistance at $1.32. Breakout above $1.32 would suggest a primary advance, with a target of $1.40* — confirmed if resistance at $1.34 is broken. But oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero does not indicate a strong trend and respect of resistance is just as likely.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

Pound Sterling is weakening against the euro, breach of medium-term support at €1.16 suggesting a test of primary support at €1.1350 on the weekly chart. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would indicate a strong primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of the 2011 low at €1.10.
Pound Sterling

The greenback retreated below support at ¥100 against the Yen. Recovery above ¥100 would indicate continuation of the advance, with a target of ¥114*. Respect of the new resistance level, however, remains as likely and would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie broke resistance at $0.96, suggesting a rally to the descending trendline and resistance at $0.9850 against the greenback. Reversal below $0.96, however, would warn that all bets are off and another test of  support at $0.9450 is likely. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a healthy primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar penetrated its secondary descending trendline, suggesting a rally to test the primary trendline at $0.96. But first we need a break of resistance at $0.93, while follow-through above $0.94 would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance, however, would warn of another test of immediate support at $0.90, while the long-term target remains at $0.80* against the greenback. The RBA is not averse to this: they need a softer dollar to cushion the impact of falling commodity prices.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

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Forex: Euro hesitant while Aussie falls

The euro is testing support at $1.30, representing a two-thirds retracement of the previous advance. Follow-through below $1.2950 would signal another test of primary support at $1.28 — and a ranging market — while respect of $1.30 would suggest a primary advance to $1.36*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would be a bullish sign.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.30 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

Pound Sterling is ranging between €1.16 and €1.19 against the euro. Upward breakout — and penetration of the descending trendline — would signal a primary advance to €1.22*. But breach of support at €1.16 would indicate another test of primary support at €1.14, while a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would suggest continuation of the primary down-trend.
Pound Sterling

The greenback retraced to test the new support level at ¥100 against the Yen. Respect, indicated by follow-through above ¥101, would re-test resistance at ¥103 to ¥104. But reversal below ¥99 seems as likely, and would re-test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie is testing support at $0.95 against the greenback. Follow-through below $0.9450 is likely and would signal another decline, with a target of $0.9350*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 0.9850 – 0.96 ) = 0.9350

The Aussie Dollar continues to fall, with an immediate target of $0.90* and a long-term target of $0.80* against the greenback. The RBA is cheering this on as they need a softer dollar to cushion the impact of a down-turn in commodity prices.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.92 – ( 0.94 – 0.92 ) = 0.90; 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

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Forex: Euro falters while Aussie fall continues

The euro fell through support at $1.32 and is headed for a test of primary support at $1.27*. Failure of support would complete a broad head and shoulders reversal, offering a target of $1.17*. Descending 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary down-trend.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.27 – ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling is headed for a test of support at $1.50 against the greenback. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero suggests a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $1.50 would confirm.
Pound Sterling

The greenback is headed for a test of ¥100 against the Yen, after finding support at ¥94. The primary trend is upward and recovery above ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥114*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance at ¥100, however, would warn of reversal.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie found support at $0.95 against the greenback, not $0.96 as expected. Recovery above $0.96 would suggest a rally to test the descending trendline around $0.98*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.97 – ( 1.00 – 0.97 ) = 0.94

The Aussie Dollar displays a small flag as it rallies to test resistance at $0.94 against the greenback. Respect of resistance is likely and would suggest a decline to $0.90*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.92 – ( 0.94 – 0.92 ) = 0.90

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Forex: Euro retraces but Sterling weakens on the cross

The euro is retracing to test the new support level at $1.32, respect would confirm the advance to $1.37*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.27 ) = 1.37

Pound Sterling is testing support at €1.16 against the euro. Failure would indicate a decline to primary support at  €1.14 , with a longer term target of €1.10. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the bear signal.
Pound Sterling

The greenback found support at ¥94 against the Yen. The primary trend is still upward and recovery above ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥114*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance at ¥100, however, would warn of reversal.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie respected resistance at $0.99 against the greenback and is headed for another test of support at $0.96. Successive peaks below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy primary down-trend. Breach of  $0.96 would offer a target of $0.93*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 0.99 – 0.96 ) = 0.93

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Forex: Aussie resistance, Yen falls

The Aussie Dollar rallied to $0.955 on the 2-hour chart before encountering selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2011 low at $0.94. Breach would indicate another decline. The next target is $0.90*, with a long-term target of $0.80*. Breakout above $0.955 is unlikely, but would re-test resistance at $0.98.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculations: 0.94 – ( 0.98 – 0.94 ) = 0.90 and 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie, however, respected support at $0.96, heading for another test of resistance at $0.99 or parity. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests continuation of the down-trend. Respect of resistance would indicate another decline, with a target of $0.94*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.97 – ( 1.00 – 0.97 ) = 0.94

The euro broke resistance at $1.32 and is headed for $1.37*. Breakout is some way off, but would offer a target of $1.47*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.47

Pound Sterling broke resistance at $1.56, signaling an advance to $1.63*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.
Pound Sterling

* Target calculation: 1.56 + ( 1.56 – 1.50 ) = 1.62

The greenback continues a strong correction against the Yen, but this is a secondary movement and the primary up-trend is unaltered. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Recovery above resistance at ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥113*. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculations: (a) 104 + ( 104 – 95 ) = 113; (b) 100 + ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

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Forex: Aussie falls but Euro and Yen unfazed

After a weak rally to $0.98, the Aussie Dollar broke primary support at $0.96, signaling a strong down-trend. Long-term target for the decline is $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie is also likely to break support at $0.96, offering a long-term target of $0.82*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.06 – 0.94 ) = 0.82

The euro, however, broke resistance at $1.30 and is headed for a test of $1.32. Breach of that level would offer a target of $1.36*. But respect of $1.32 would warn of a head and shoulders reversal — completed if support at $1.27 is broken.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

The greenback reversed sharply against the Yen in the last week, falling from ¥104 to ¥99. But the scale of the reversal is placed in its proper perspective on a monthly chart. The primary up-trend is unfazed, and recovery above resistance at ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥110*. The 30-year secular bear trend is over. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculations: (a) 104 + ( 104 – 99 ) = 109; (b) 100 + ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

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Forex: Aussie, Yen and Euro find support

The Aussie Dollar broke support at $0.96 against the greenback before retracing, the long tail indicating buying pressure. Expect a weak bear rally to test resistance at parity before another decline breaches primary support, offering a target of $0.90*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.02 – 0.96 ) = 0.90

The euro has so far respected primary support at $1.27. Breakout above resistance at $1.30 would suggest a primary up-trend; confirmed if the euro follows through above $1.32. Breach of support is unlikely, but would offer a target of $1.20/$1.22*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.27 – ( 1.32 – 1.27 ) = 1.22

The greenback retreated sharply against the yen as Japanese investors repatriate offshore bond and stock investments — see Mrs Watanabe Brings Home the Bacon. But the longer term trend is unchanged. Respect of support at ¥100 would signal a fresh primary advance. Breach of the long-term declining trendline indicates the 30-year secular bear trend is over. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

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Forex: Aussie breaks support while Yen soars

The Aussie Dollar broke primary support at $1.015 and is testing parity against the greenback. Parity is not expected to hold and we are likely to see a test of the next major support level at $0.95/$0.96. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero continues to suggest a ranging market.

Aussie Dollar/USD

The euro is retreating, headed for another test of $1.2750. Respect would signal another attempt at $1.37, while failure would indicate a primary down-trend — testing long-term support at $1.20. The failed advance to $1.50 would be bearish; and breach of $1.20 would offer a target of $1.05*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.20 – ( 1.35 – 1.20 ) = 1.05

Rapid expansion of the monetary base by the Bank of Japan is fueling inflation fears and weakening the yen. Lars Christensen points out that, with competitive devaluation from all quarters, exports are not likely to play a major part in a Japanese recovery. What is more likely is a consumption and investment boom as households invest in real assets as a hedge against inflation.

The greenback broke resistance at ¥100 against the Japanese Yen — a one-third appreciation from the lows of 2011/2012. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but breach of the long-term declining trendline indicates the 30-year secular bear trend is over. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

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Forex: Aussie consolidates while Sterling surprises

The euro is consolidating between $1.30 and $1.32. Upward breakout is more likely and would test the high of $1.37. Reversal below $1.30 would warn of another decline, to around $1.24*. In the long-term, breakout above $1.37 would signal a primary advance to $1.50. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough at the zero line would reinforce this.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.28 – ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.24

Pound sterling surprised with a reversal above resistance at $1.53. Follow-through above $1.54 would suggest an advance to around $1.58, while retreat below $1.52 would signal a down-swing to $1.43*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below its 2011 lows, strengthens the bear signal.

Sterling/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

The Aussie Dollar rallied off primary support at $1.015. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero suggests a ranging market. Respect of support suggests another test of $1.06.

Aussie Dollar/USD

Canada’s Loonie found support above $0.97 against the greenback, suggesting another test of $0.99. Breach of the rising trendline, however, would indicate another down-swing.

Canadian Dollar/USD

The greenback is testing resistance at ¥100 against the Japanese Yen. The 30-year down-trend of the dollar is over. Breakout above ¥100 is likely, and would suggest an advance to the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

The Fed, ECB and BOJ are all printing money and debasing their currencies. The US dollar, although taking on water, is viewed as the safest — because it is sinking slower than the others. There are signs the Fed is likely to slow quantitative easing in the next 6 to 12 months.

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