Dr Oliver Hartwich of The New Zealand Initiative discusses his new book, Why Europe Failed.
Over the past years, we have become used to Europe’s debt crisis. However, the fiscal problems of countries such as Greece are only the tip of the iceberg. Europe’s crisis has much deeper roots. Here, Dr Hartwich explains the causes of Europe’s decline.
From Michael G. Jacobides in Harvard Business Review:
….while some EU policies are punitive or counter-productive, the strength of opinion of pundits long on conviction and short on detail seems to ignore the real root cause of the crisis. This is that the Greek economy has become inward-looking, unproductive, incumbent-favouring, and rife with rent-seeking. They may also underestimate how Grexit would exacerbate many of the Greek pathologies at the root of the crisis.
Greece’s main problem isn’t its currency. Rather, it is that its Byzantine regulations and institutional uncertainties discourage investments and reduce competitive pressures. Grexit would further restrict available capital, shatter the fragile banking sector, and increase the investment gap, which, as McKinsey’s recent study shows, is the key issue.
Read more at Greece and Its Misguided Champions.
From the Wall Street Journal:
Greece’s Parliament passed early Thursday a crucial set of austerity measures required for a eurozone bailout package….The measures were supported by 229 lawmakers in the nation’s 300-seat Parliament.
A Grexit has been avoided for the present, but unless the Greeks are successful in implementing structural reform, reversing many years of cronyism and corruption, we are likely to witness further re-runs in the future.
The nuclear deal with Iran has outraged the Right in Israel and the US. There are many pitfalls along the way but I believe this is a bold step forward. The outcome will be uncertain for many years but presents both sides with a chance to build a new relationship where they can peacefully co-exist. The alternative is another war in the Middle East — with no winners.
Photos: exuberant Iranians celebrate the nuclear deal http://t.co/RBqvCR6Vm0 pic.twitter.com/fUfvelIeP5
— Quartz (@qz) July 16, 2015
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I was surprised to see the Russians playing a constructive role in the dialogue. I am sure that Vladimir Putin would take personal delight in poking a stick through Obama’s bicycle spokes, but the interests of the state come first. “Follow the green” as one US diplomat described it. The New York Times offers a clue:
Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, lost no time in talking about the accord on Iran’s nuclear program. He was on television minutes after the deal was clinched, and even before the formal news conference had begun, announcing the landmark agreement to the audience back home and emphasizing the many potential benefits, strategic and economic, that it holds for Russia…..Russia possesses some of the world’s foremost expertise in atomic energy, and has helped build and operate atomic reactors in Iran for many years. Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear energy company, helped build and expand the Bushehr nuclear plant and already has contracts to build two more reactors there.
China, on the other hand still lurks in the background. The state managed to stem the flood, suspending trading on more than 50% of stocks and forbidding large stockholders from selling. This is a public acknowledgment that Chinese stock prices are artificial and in no way to be trusted (“What’s new” some cynics would ask). They have destroyed any credibility that their stock markets had. Japan had zombie banks after their 1990 stock market crash, solvent in name only. China seems to be following a similar path with zombie stocks. Banks who have lent money against those stocks are likely to follow.
For a deeper understanding of the situation, read China’s stock market falling off a cliff: Why, and why care? by Alicia Garcia-Herrero at Bruegel.org
Germany’s DAX recovered above its descending trendline, indicating the end of the correction. Follow-through above 11600 would strengthen the signal, suggesting a fresh advance. Breakout above 12400 would confirm. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its descending trendline shows that selling pressure has eased.
* Target calculation: 12500 + ( 12500 – 11000 ) = 14000
The Footsie also recovered above its descending trendline. Follow-through above 6750 would indicate another attempt at 7100. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero flags buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6500 ) = 7500
The Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at 4000. Government efforts to stem the crash are unlikely to restore credibility to stock prices. The large divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 3000
Japan’s Nikkei 225 recovered above 20000, suggesting a fresh advance. Breakout above 21000 would confirm. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its descending trendline suggests the correction is over.
* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 19000 ) = 23000
India’s Sensex recovered above 28000, suggesting a fresh advance. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow recovery above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breach of primary support at 26500 is now unlikely.
* Target calculation: 30000 + ( 30000 – 27000 ) = 33000
The S&P 500 respected medium-term support at 2040. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 2120 would offer a target of 2200*.
* Target calculation: 2100 + ( 2100 – 2000 ) = 2200
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated to low levels typical of a bull market.
The Nasdaq 100 is approaching its Dotcom-era high of 4800. Breakout above 4550 would signal a test of long-term resistance. 6-Month Twiggs Momentum oscillating above zero reflects a healthy long-term up-trend.
Canada’s TSX 60 recovered above support at 850/855. Breakout above the upper trend channel would indicate the correction is over, suggesting another test of 900. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of the upper trend channel is unlikely, but would warn of continuation of the down-trend.
* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 850 ) = 950
The ASX 200 broke out above its descending trend channel, flagging end of the correction. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Follow through above 5700 would signal another test of 6000.
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.
~ George Soros
The crisis in Greece continues, dragging down stocks across Europe.
Germany’s DAX broke support at 11000, warning of a decline to 10000. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Recovery above 11500 is unlikely, but would signal a fresh advance.
The Footsie found short-term support at 6500. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of a primary down-trend. A peak below zero or breach of support at 6100 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 6700 – ( 7100 – 6700 ) = 6300
Events have been overtaken by collapse of Chinese stocks. The Shanghai Composite found support at 3500, but government efforts are unlikely to stem the rout. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of further selling pressure. Expect support at the primary trendline, around the 3000 level.
* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 3000
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was unsettled by events in Shanghai, breaking support at 20000 to warn of a correction. The decline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow is gradual, suggesting a secondary correction.
* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000
India’s Sensex retreated below 28000 warning of another test of primary support at 26500. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Breach of support at 26500 is also unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend with support at 23000*.
* Target calculation: 26500 – ( 30000 – 26500 ) = 23000
The S&P 500 is testing medium-term support at 2040. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests a test of primary support (1980/2000) but today’s rally in China may alleviate this. The index is likely to range below 2120 until the situations in both China and Greece reach a conclusion.
* Target calculation: 2120 + ( 2120 – 2040 ) = 2200
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is fairly subdued but likely to break 20, indicating moderate risk.
Dow Jones Industrial Average broke support at 17600. Follow-through below 17500 would warn of a test of primary support at 17000. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates strong selling pressure but this was aggravated by yesterday’s technical trading halt on the NYSE and recovery above zero is likely.
Canada’s TSX 60 broke support at 850, warning of a test of primary support at 800. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests a primary down-trend. Recovery above the descending trendline is unlikely, but would indicate the correction is over.
* Target calculation: 850 – ( 900 – 850 ) = 800
The ASX 200 found support at 5400, highlighted by the long tail on today’s candle. Breakout above the trend channel is still unlikely, but would indicate the correction is over. It would be prudent, in the current climate, to wait for a higher trough or some other confirmation. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates moderate buying pressure.
Never let a serious crisis go to waste.
~ Rahm Emanuel
From a speech by Dr Andreas Dombret, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the New York Stock Exchange, New York, 26 March 2014:
How do we get to the end of the tunnel?
At the European level, the most important project is the banking union. The banking union is most certainly the biggest step since the introduction of the euro. And it is the most logical step to take. A single currency requires integrated financial markets and this includes the supervision of banks.
Consequently, one of the pillars the banking union rests upon is a Single Supervisory Mechanism – that is European bank supervision for the largest banks. Centralising supervisory powers in such a way can foster a comprehensive and unbiased view upon banks. It also enables policy action that is not held hostage by national interests. Thus, it will contribute to more effective supervision and better cross-border cooperation and coordination.
Read more at Andreas Dombret: What is going on in Europe? The view from within.
Jana Randow at Reuters writes:
Lending to households and companies in the euro area shrank for a ninth month in January as the recession damped demand for credit.
Read more at ECB Says Private Lending Contracted for Ninth Month in January – Bloomberg.
From Brian Carney’s weekend interview with Bernard Connolly:
…But even if the Greeks were undisciplined, he says, “both the sovereign-debt crisis and the banking crisis are symptoms, not causes. And the underlying problem has been that there was a massive bubble generated in the world as a whole by monetary policy—but particularly in the euro zone” by European Central Bank policy.
The bubble formed like this: When countries such as Ireland, Greece and Spain joined the euro, their interest rates immediately dropped to near-German levels, in some cases from double-digit territory. “The optimism created by these countries’ suddenly finding that they could have low interest rates without their currencies collapsing, which had been their previous experience, led people to think that there was a genuine rate-of-return revolution going on,” he says.
There had been an increase in the rates of return in Ireland “and to some extent in Spain” in the run-up to euro membership, thanks to structural reforms in those countries in the pre-euro period. But by the time the euro rolled around, money was flowing into these countries out of all proportion to the opportunities available…..
Read more at The Weekend Interview with Bernard Connolly: Why the Euro Crisis Isn't Over – WSJ.com.
How far should countries go to encourage foreign investment? Jelena Dzankic writes that in a time of economic crisis, some countries in Europe are now seeking investment in exchange for citizenship. Assessing recent developments in Bulgaria, Hungary, Portugal and Ireland, she argues that despite the obvious financial benefits to such policies, they are not without risks. They may raise the potential for tax evasion and security issues, and could also reduce the relationship between the individual and the state to that of a business contract.
Read more at The eurozone’s struggling economies are increasingly selling citizenship to raise much needed capital. | EUROPP.
Ireland now leads the United States in labor productivity as measured by GDP (converted to USD after adjusting for purchasing power parity) to hours worked by the workforce. Mark Cassidy writes on Ireland’s strong productivity growth during the 1990s:
Strong productivity growth during this period was largely driven by substantial foreign direct investment inflows from the United States and sectoral change in industry — i.e. a continuing shift of capital and labour from agriculture and relatively low productivity manufacturing towards high-technology sectors including chemicals and ICT sectors — and was facilitated by macro and micro-economic reforms implemented since the late 1980s, favourable exchange rate and international economic developments, increased European integration and the availability of a young, relatively well-educated workforce.
Two factors stand out:
Removal of trade barriers and favorable tax rates attracted large investment in high-tech manufacturing, primarily from the United States.
GABRIELE STEINHAUSER And LAURENCE NORMAN at WSJ write:
European Union finance ministers reached a landmark deal early Thursday that would bring many of the continent’s banks under a single supervisor, in what governments hope will be a major step toward resolving their three-year-old debt crisis. Ministers said the European Central Bank would start policing the most important and vulnerable banks in the euro zone and other countries that choose to join the new supervisory regime next year. Once it takes over, the ECB will be able to force banks to raise their capital buffers and even shut down unsafe lenders.
This is an important step, centralizing banking control in Brussels. Though there is bound to be dissent amongst member states as to capital buffers and unsafe lending practices.
Read more at EU Deal Reached on Bank Supervisor – WSJ.com.