EUR Archives - the patient investor

July 27, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Yen, Aussie, Loonie, Rand

The euro is testing resistance at $1.23/$1.24 against the greenback. Breakout above resistance and the descending trendline would warn that the primary down-trend is weakening and a bottom is forming . Negative values on 63 -day Twiggs Momentum continue to indicate a primary down-trend and respect of resistance would favor another decline.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.205 – ( 1.240 – 1.205) = 1.170

Pound Sterling is retracing to find support against the euro. Friday’s doji signals uncertainty. Respect of €1.27 would mean that the up-trend is still accelerating, while respect of €1.255 would indicate a healthy trend.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.26 + ( 1.26 – 1.23 ) = 1.29

Canada’s Loonie is strengthening against the greenback on the weekly chart. Breakout above parity would confirm a test of $1.02*. Fluctuation of 63 -day Twiggs Momentum around zero, between 3% and -3%, would indicate a ranging market.

Index

The Aussie dollar is testing resistance at $1.045/$1.05 against the greenback. Breakout would offer an initial target of $1.08*. Recovery of 63 -day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.05 + ( 1.05 – 1.02 ) = 1.08

The Aussie is also testing resistance at 82/82.50 Japanese yen. Breakout would offer an initial target of 84.50* and a medium-term target of ¥88.

Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 79.50 ) = 84.50

Against the South African Rand, the Aussie is retracing to test support at R8.50. Respect would offer an initial target of R9.00*. Rising 63 -day Twiggs Momentum continues to indicate a primary up-trend.

Index

* Target calculation: 8.75 + ( 8.75 – 8.50 ) = 9.00

February 23, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Yen and Rand

The euro broke medium-term resistance at $1.32, indicating a rally to test the descending trendline at $1.38*. Momentum is rising but the primary trend remains downward.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.38

Pound Sterling broke its descending trendline, but respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary down-trend. A fall below $1.565 (the last two weeks low) would warn of another test of primary support at $1.530. Recovery above $1.590 is less likely, but would indicate a rally to test $1.620.

Index

The greenback broke through resistance at ¥80 and is now retracing to test its new support level. Respect would confirm a primary up-trend, signaled by the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum (and its recovery above zero).

Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

The Aussie Dollar consolidated against the South African Rand in recent months after a long appreciation. 63-day Twiggs Momentum is declining and breakout below R8.00 would warn of a correction to the rising trendline, with a target of R7.50*. Upward breakout, however, would offer an initial target of R9.00.

Index

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

February 2, 2012

Forex: EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, JPY, ZAR

The euro remains in a strong primary down-trend. The current rally is testing resistance at $1.32, but 63 -day Twiggs Momentum continues to trend downwards. Breach of support at $1.26 would signal a down-swing to $1.20*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.20

Pound Sterling has breached its declining trendline against the greenback, warning that a bottom is forming. Breakout above $1.62 would complete a double bottom reversal, testing the 2011 high at $1.68.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.62 + ( 1.62 – 1.53 ) = 1.71

Canada’s Loonie also signals that a bottom is forming. Breakout above $1.01 would indicate the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial target of $1.06*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie is testing resistance at $1.08. Breakout would similarly signal a primary up-trend with an initial target of $1.18*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.98 ) = 1.18

The greenback is testing primary support at 76 against the Japanese yen. Breakout would offer a target of 72*. Recovery above the declining trendline, however, would suggest that a bottom is forming — confirming the large bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum — while breakout above 80 would signal a primary up-trend.

Index

* Target calculation: 76 – ( 80 – 76 ) = 72

The South African Rand is strengthening against the US Dollar, while encountering resistance at R8.50 against its Australian counterpart. Downward breakout from the ascending triangle would warn of a correction to test the long-term trendline at R7.50, while breakout above R8.50 would indicate another primary advance, with a target of R9.50*.

Index

* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 7.50 ) = 9.50

November 10, 2011

Euro sinks, dragging sterling lower

EURUSD broke through $1.36 warning of another test of primary support at $1.32. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum confirms a primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.22*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

GBPUSD is being dragged lower by the euro. Reversal below $1.60 warns of another test of primary support at $1.53 — as does 63-day Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.46*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

October 20, 2011

Forex overview

The euro is consolidating above $1.365; failure of support would re-test $1.315, warning of another primary decline. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line would confirm a strong primary down-trend.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.40 – 1.32 ) = 1.24

The pound retraced to test resistance at $1.59/1.60 on the weekly chart. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, suggests a strong down-trend. Reversal below $1.53 would offer a target of $1.46*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

Canada’s Loonie resembles the Aussie dollar: reversal below short-term support at $0.975 would test $0.94. Respect of the descending trendline would also warn of a decline to $0.88*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.00 – 0.94 ) = 0.88

The Aussie dollar is testing support at $1.28 against its Kiwi counterpart after completing a double bottom. Respect of support would confirm the target of $1.32*.

AUDNZD

* Target calculation: 1.28 + ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.32

The greenback is ranging in a narrow band above ¥76, supported by the Bank of Japan. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero confirms the strong down-trend.

USDJPY

The greenback recovered above R8.00 on the weekly chart against the South African Rand. Expect another test of R8.50. Upward breakout would warn of an accelerating up-trend that is likely to lead to a blow-off.

USDZAR

* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 7.70 ) = 9.30

September 8, 2011

Swiss Franc weakens on SNB action

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) threw a similar lifeline to Swiss exporters and tourist industry, pledging to support their currency at 1.20 Swiss Francs against the euro with “utmost determination” and to “buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities” to achieve this. [Bloomberg]

The euro jumped from 1.10 to 1.20 CHF on Tuesday and has been trading in a narrow range between 1.20 and 1.21 since then. Further speculation is inadvisable unless you have deep enough pockets to take on the SNB.

EURCHF

September 5, 2011

Euro tests primary support at $1.40

The euro broke its medium-term trendline against the dollar at [TX] and is headed for another test of primary support at $1.40. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.30*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.40 – ( 1.50 – 1.40 ) = 1.30

August 25, 2011

No European trend

The Euro is testing resistance at $1.455 after consolidating between $1.40 and that level for the last two months. Twiggs Momentum oscillating in a tight band around zero reflects no real trend and this is likely to continue unless the Fed introduces a new round of quantitative easing.

Euro EUR

* Target calculation: 1.45 + ( 1.45 – 1.40 ) = 1.50

The Pound is testing resistance at $1.66 against the greenback. Breakout above the 2011 high of $1.67 would signal another primary advance, but Momentum is falling and we can expect strong resistance between $1.66 and $1.70.

Pound Sterling GBP

* Target calculation: 1.65 + ( 1.65 – 1.60 ) = 1.70

The Swiss Franc is testing support at $1.25 against the greenback. Respect of support is likely, but breakout above $1.30 is also unlikely in the short-term unless Ben Bernanke announces further quantitative easing.

Swiss Franc CHF