Dow Jones Transportation Average Archives

March 11, 2025March 12, 2025

Bear market confirmed

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,433 after marginally breaking primary support at 42,000 yesterday. This confirms a bear market in terms of Dow Theory.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Confirmation comes after an earlier bear signal, breaching primary support on the Transportation Average below.

Dow Jones Transportation Average

The S&P 500 also signals a primary downtrend after breaching support at 5,800, strengthening the Dow bear signal.

S&P 500

The equal-weighted S&P 500 index ($IQX) was the last shoe to drop, breaking primary support at 7,000 on Tuesday.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Further confirmation comes from the Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM), in a primary downtrend after breaking support at 214.

Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (IWM)

The Nasdaq QQQ ETF also broke primary support at 500, warning of a bear market.

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)

Conclusion

We now have confirmation of a bear market from all the major indexes.

Bear markets typically result in a 30 to 50 percent drawdown. With stock valuations at extremes, this one is unlikely to disappoint.

Stock Market Pricing Indicator

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 10, 2022May 10, 2022

It’s a bear market

The S&P 500 broke primary support at 4170 to confirm a bear market. A Trend Index peak at zero warns of strong selling pressure.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq 100 similarly broke support at 13K, confirming the bear market.

Nasdaq 100

Dow Jones Industrial Average, already in a primary down-trend, confirmed the bear market with a break below 32.5K.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Transportation Average lags slightly, testing primary support at 14.5K. Follow-through below 14K would be the final nail in the coffin.

Dow Jones Transportation Average

A plunging Freightwaves National Truckload Index warns that we should not have long to wait.

Freightwaves Truckload Index

Conclusion

All major US stock market indices now warn of a bear market. Weak retracement, to test new resistance levels, should not be confused with a buy-the-dip opportunity.

S&P 500

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 10, 2017

Steady growth in US hours worked

Growth of total hours worked, calculated as Total Nonfarm Payroll multiplied by Average Hours worked, improved to 1.575% for the 12 months to May 2017.

Total Hours Worked

And the April 2017 Leading Index, produced the Philadelphia Fed, is tracking at a healthy 1.64%. Decline below 1.0% is often an early warning of a slow-down; below 0.5% is more urgent.

Hourly Wage Rate Growth and Core CPI

Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to advance. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow signal long-term buying pressure.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dow Jones Transportation Average is slower, headed for a test of resistance at 9500. But recent breakout of Fedex above $200 is an encouraging sign and the index is likely to follow.

Dow Jones Transportation Average

We are in stage III of a bull market, but this can last for several years.

March 24, 2017

Dow warns of a correction

The commentator’s curse. Three days after I posted that Dow Jones Industrial Average was consolidating in a bullish narrow band below resistance at 21000, the Dow breached support at 20800. Downward breakout warns of a correction with support at 20000. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Follow-through below 20600 would strengthen the (medium-term) bear signal but the primary trend remains up.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The false break above 21000 was a hint that all was not well with the trend. Unfortunately we often only see what we expect and miss the subtle clues.

The Dow is in Stage III of a bull market. This is confirmed by a primary up-trend on the Transportation Average, although the current month shows a correction.

Dow Jones Transportation Average

Small Caps indexes like the Russell 2000 also display a strong up-trend, reinforcing the Stage III conclusion.

Russell 2000 Small Caps

Likewise, the Nasdaq 100.

Nasdaq 100

I have not drawn conventional trendlines, on the above charts, through the lowest points in the up-trend. Instead I have dragged a linear regression line down to “touch” the mid-point lows. I find this offers a better fit in many cases where there is an initial (bounce) spurt at the start of the trend.