Tag: Dow Jones Industrial Average

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Weak jobs and falling crude = September rate cut

Key Points

  • The Fed will likely cut interest rates in September after a weak jobs report.
  • Falling crude oil prices also ease inflationary pressure.
  • Long-term Treasury yields fall, anticipating a rate cut.
  • The dollar weakened as yields softened, while gold soared to a new high of $3,600 per ounce.

The August labor report disappointed with a low 22,000 job growth compared to an expected 75,000. Another June data revision saw jobs contract by 13,000, after initial reported gains of 147,000 were revised down to 14,000 last month.

Employment Growth

Growth in total weekly hours worked came to a complete halt in August, with annual growth falling to 0.7%. Real GDP growth will likely follow.

Total Hours Worked

The uptrend in continued claims confirms the August rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.

Unemployment

The unemployment level ( 7.4m ) now exceeds job openings ( 7.2m ), but only by 200K.

Job Openings

Temporary jobs fell to 2.5 million, a level typically seen during recessions.

Temporary Employment

Layoffs and discharges are in an uptrend.

Layoffs & Discharges Rate

The 2.0% quit rate indicates that employees are no longer confident in finding new jobs.

Quit Rate

Average hourly earnings growth slowed to an annualized rate of 3.3% in August, but year/year growth was steady at 3.9%, still indicating a balanced labor market.

Average Hourly Earnings

Crude Oil

OPEC+ has injected a lot of downside pricing risk into the oil markets this week, fueling speculation that the second wave of voluntary cuts totaling 1.65 million b/d could be unwound much quicker than previously expected. According to news reports, Saudi Arabia is interested in pushing ahead with the unwinding during the September 7 meeting, citing the need to regain market share. (OilPrice.com)

The move has the potential to create a massive oversupply. Brent crude fell to $65.50 per barrel on Friday, but if the Saudis succeed, expect a test of support at $60. Falling crude prices would squeeze shale producer margins, causing a drop in US production.

Brent Crude

Lower energy prices would ease inflationary pressures in the US, allowing more room for Fed rate cuts.

ISM Services

The ISM services PMI improved to 52% in August, indicating expansion.

ISM Services PMI

New orders jumped to 56%, signaling an improving outlook.

ISM Services New Orders

However, services employment signals contraction, confirming the weak labor report.

ISM Services Employment

A steep 69.2% for the prices sub-index also warns of strong inflationary pressures.

ISM Services Prices

Contracting employment and rising prices in the large services sector warn of stagflation. We expect the Fed to cut in September, but then pause to see how this affects prices.

Stocks

A weak labor report is a bearish sign for stocks despite the prospect of a Fed rate cut. A reversal of the S&P 500 below support at 6400 would warn of a correction.

S&P 500

We expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to test support at 45,000. Respect of support would confirm another advance. A breach is less likely, but would signal a test of 44,000.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed Index retreated to -0.526, warning that financial conditions are tightening.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Tighter financial conditions are also highlighted by a decline in bank reserves to below $3.2 trillion.

Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed

Bitcoin is testing support at 110K. A breach would warn of a swing to risk-off in financial markets, which would be bearish for stocks.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

10-year Treasury yields plunged to 4.09%, heading for a test of long-term support at 4.0% as speculators pile into bonds ahead of the expected September rate cut. However, we have warned of the risk that long-term yields rise in response to a Fed cut — as in September last year.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Dollar & Gold

The dollar weakened in response to the poor jobs report, anticipating falling interest rates.

Dollar Index

Gold surged to a new high at $3,600 per ounce before closing at $3,587. Expect another test of support at $3,500, but respect will likely confirm another advance — and our year-end target of $4,000.

Spot Gold

Silver is retracing to test support at $40, but respect will likely confirm another advance and a target of $44.

Spot Silver

Conclusion

Weak jobs growth in August warns that economic growth is slowing, but the ISM services report warns of strong price pressures in the services sector. We expect a Fed rate cut in September but then a pause as the Fed remains wary of stagflation, with low growth and rising prices.

We expect the dollar to weaken in response to rate cuts, with gold and silver soaring to new highs.

The Fed should take care to avoid a repeat of last September, when Fed rate cuts sparked a sell-off in long-term Treasuries, signaling the bond market’s displeasure with monetary and fiscal policy. We believe they will aim for a gradual decline, with a pause after the September cut to assess the impact of tariffs and a slowing economy on prices.

A Saudi move to increase crude oil production would likely drive Brent crude to $60 per barrel or below, giving the Fed more room to cut rates.

Acknowledgments

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Gold breaks to a new high

Key Points

  • Gold broke through resistance at $3,500 per ounce, reaching a new high of $3,546.
  • Silver is testing resistance at $41 per ounce.
  • Sovereign debt is losing favor, with the UK 30-year gilt yield above 5.7% for the first time in 27 years.

After its recent breakout, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has retraced to test support at 45K. Respect is likely, but a breach would raise questions about the validity of the Dow’s recent bull market signal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

September is also the worst month of the year for stock performance, most likely due to investment managers cleaning up their portfolios before the financial year-end.

Stock Market Performance by Calendar Month

While September has the worst average return, we are also wary of October, which has delivered some of the most severe crashes in memory, including October 1929 and 1987.

Financial Markets

Bitcoin is testing support at 110K, warning that investors’ risk appetite is shrinking. A follow-through below the recent low would be a strong bear signal for stocks.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

10-year Treasury yields are consolidating in a narrow band above support at 4.2%, anticipating a Fed rate cut in September, causing a decline in long-term yields.

10-Year Treasury Yield

However, long-term yields are in a secular uptrend, with the US 30-year testing resistance at 5.0%.

30-Year US Treasury Yield

Global investors are increasingly shunning long-term sovereign debt. The UK 30-year Gilt rose above 5.70% for the first time since April 1998.

30-Year UK Gilt Yield

Japan’s 30-year JGB yields are climbing steeply due to the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy.

30-Year JGB Yield

The 30-year German Bund is on a similar path.

30-Year German Bund Yield

A secular bear market in bonds will also likely be bearish for stocks.

Dollar & Gold

The US Dollar Index continues in a bearish narrow consolidation above support at 97. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of long-term selling pressure, and a breach of support at 97 would strengthen our long-term target of 90.

Dollar Index

Gold broke through resistance at $3,500 per ounce, reaching a new high of $3,546. A higher Trend Index trough signals buying pressure. Expect retracement to test the band of support between $3,400 and $3,500, but respect will likely confirm another advance, further strengthening our target of $4,000 by the end of the year.

Spot Gold

Silver made a similar breakout above $40 per ounce. Again, we expect retracement to test the new band of support between $39 and $40, but respect will likely confirm another advance. Our year-end target is $44.

Spot Silver

ISM Manufacturing

The manufacturing sector continues to signal a contraction, but the rate of decline slowed, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 48.7%.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The outlook improved, with forward orders rising to 51.4%.

ISM Manufacturing New Orders

However, employment prospects remain low, with the employment sub-index at 43.8%.

ISM Manufacturing Employment

Input prices are still rising, but the prices sub-index surprisingly improved to 63.7%. A similar improvement in Services next week would indicate that inflationary pressures are easing, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut.

ISM Manufacturing Prices

Conclusion

Long-term government bonds are in a secular bear market, which will likely be bearish for stocks.

Gold reached a new high above resistance at $3,500 per ounce, reflecting investor caution towards sovereign debt. A retracement that respects the latest support level would confirm our year-end target of $4,000.

Acknowledgments

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Truckers anticipate a slowdown

Key Points

  • The weekly Bull/Bear market indicator for the US declined to 40% on a further drop in heavy truck sales
  • The US decline also affected the ASX indicator, which fell to 56%
  • Long-term Treasury yields and the dollar are weakening, boosting support for gold

Bull/Bear Market Indicator

US Bull/Bear Market

The Bull/Bear indicator declined to 40% from 60% on Friday, with heavy truck sales signaling risk-off:

Bull-Bear Market Indicator

Heavy truck sales declined to 37.1K units in July, with the 12-month moving average falling to 38.6K. Heavy truck sales are a reliable indicator of transport activity and confidence in the economic outlook. Decline of the 12-month MA by more than 10% from its October 2023 peak at 43K signals risk-off.

Heavy Truck Sales (Units)

The fall also affected the Australian indicator, which slipped to 56% from 64% last Friday, indicating a mild bear market.

Bull-Bear Market Indicator

The decline is due to the US index’s 40% weighting in the ASX Bull/Bear indicator.

ASX Bull-Bear Market Indicator

Stocks

The S&P 500 recovered from Tuesday’s fall, but the declining Trend Index warns of weak sentiment.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average stalled at 44K and has not yet confirmed the S&P 500 bull market signal with a breakout above 45K. Again, declining Trend Index peaks warn of bearish sentiment.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Financial Markets

Strong liquidity in financial markets supports stocks. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index remains in a strong downtrend, indicating loose monetary conditions, despite an upturn to -0.535 from -0.565 last week.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Bitcoin remains in an uptrend, indicating bullish sentiment, closely correlating with financial market liquidity.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

Long-term Treasury yields remain weak, testing support at 4.2%, but this is a bear signal, anticipating Fed rate cuts in response to a slowing economy.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar Index also weakened, with the Fed expected to cut rates. The decline is headed for a test of support at 97.

Dollar Index

However, a narrowing trade deficit would reduce the supply of dollars in international markets as international borrowers and importers need to meet dollar-denominated commitments. The Fed would normally alleviate the shortfall by issuing swap lines to foreign central banks, but we live in an uncertain world. The US Treasury could object to the Fed’s accommodation if the mood takes them.

BEA: Trade Deficit

Gold benefited from dollar weakness in the last few days. Narrow consolidation above support at $3,360 per ounce is a bullish sign, and a breakout would signal a fresh test of recent highs.

Spot Gold

Gold Revaluation

The Bitcoin Reserve Act Bill is currently circulating in Congress. Its stated aims:

To establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and other programs to ensure the transparent management of Bitcoin holdings of the Federal Government, to offset costs utilizing certain resources of the Federal Reserve System, and for other purposes.

Section 9 includes a provision to revalue US gold reserves. Treasury owns the gold and issues gold certificates to the Fed, currently at a book value of $42.222 per troy ounce.

The Bill proposes that the Treasury revalue its gold holdings and issue new certificates in exchange for the existing ones held by the Fed. The Fed will credit the difference in value between the new and old certificates to the Treasury General Account (TGA) on its balance sheet. The result is inflationary as the Treasury can use the credit to buy Bitcoin, repay debt, or otherwise spend as Congress directs.

According to Fiscal Data, the US Mint holds 7,628 metric tons of gold in deep storage at Fort Knox, Denver, and West Point. Revaluing by $1,000 per ounce would enable a credit of $245 billion to the TGA. While not exactly earth-moving, the Bill provision highlights how Treasury could benefit from a higher gold price.

Conclusion

Heavy truck sales are the latest sign that US economic growth is slowing.

Long-term Treasury yields are weakening, and so is the dollar. Demand for gold has strengthened, and a follow-through above the last few days’ consolidation would signal a re-test of recent highs above $3,400 per ounce.

Acknowledgments

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Weak labor report hammers stocks

Key Points

  • The S&P 500 and Dow fell sharply on the poor July jobs report
  • Financial markets warn of easy credit conditions, which could lead to markets mispricing risk
  • Real GDP growth is misleading due to the buildup of inventories in Q1, ahead of tariffs, and their subsequent rundown in Q2
  • Long-term Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened, anticipating lower interest rates
  • The fall boosted demand for gold

July payrolls increased by 73K, below the estimate of 104K, but big downward revisions to the previous two months spooked investors. A combined revision of -258K to May and June employment lowered job gains to 19K and 14K, respectively.

Employment Growth

Stocks were hammered, with the S&P 500 displaying a bearish engulfing on the weekly chart. Breach of support at 6200 would signal a correction to test 6000.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to confirm the S&P 500 bull market signal and has now broken support at 44K, warning of a correction to 42 K.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index warns of further easing with a fall to -0.57, signaling loose monetary conditions similar to 2021 during the COVID pandemic.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

During the week, we highlighted the risk of a credit bubble if super-easy financial conditions persist:

Looser monetary policy would accelerate credit growth (light blue) above the nominal GDP rate (dark blue), leading to malinvestment as in the credit bubble preceding the 2008 global financial crisis. Mispricing risk feeds instability, leading to an inevitable collapse when assets reprice.

Bank Credit & Nominal GDP Growth

Bond market guru Jim Grant today confirmed the worrying speculative bonanza:

It’s a speculative-credit bonanza. Freewheeling conditions in the primary market pushed leveraged loan activity to new heights in July, with domestic new issuance reaching $223.2 billion. That’s the largest one-month total on record, comfortably topping the prior $206 billion peak established in January….

“I haven’t seen a market quite like this post the Great Financial Crisis,” Jon Poglitsch, managing director at Sycamore Tree Capital Partners, marveled to Bloomberg Wednesday. There’s a “grab for spread where anyone can find it,” he noted.

Loose financial conditions will likely be exacerbated if the Fed caves to political pressure and cuts interest rates, risking a credit bubble.

Treasury Markets

The weak jobs report swept aside concerns over the uptick in June core PCE inflation to 2.8%.

PCE & Core PCE

10-year Treasury yields plunged, anticipating Fed rate cuts, testing long-term support at 4.2%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Economy

Real GDP growth recovered to an annualized rate of 2.9% in Q2, but the numbers are misleading. The biggest contributor was a sharp reduction in inventories after massive Q1 pre-orders, front-running the tariffs announced by President Trump in April. The contraction in Q2 aggregate hours worked reveals a far gloomier picture.

Real GDP & Total Hours Worked

A 50K July decline in employment in cyclical sectors — manufacturing, construction, transportation, and warehousing — warns that the economy is slowing.

Cyclical Employment

Labor Market

Job openings and unemployment remain in balance, as highlighted by Chair Powell at this week’s FOMC announcement.

Job Openings

Annual growth in average hourly earnings at 3.9% reflects reasonable labor demand.

Average Hourly Earnings

Dollar & Gold

The US Dollar Index fell sharply on the July jobs report, anticipating lower interest rates ahead.

Dollar Index

The fall boosted demand for gold, which is testing resistance at $3,360 per ounce. Breakout would signal a test of $3,440.

Spot Gold

Conclusion

A weak jobs report, with falling employment in cyclical sectors, warns that the economy is slowing. Stocks are expected to undergo a correction, with the S&P 500 testing support at 6000 and the Dow testing 42K.

Interest rates are expected to fall, with the Fed cutting rates to create a soft landing. Lower interest rate expectations have also weakened the dollar and boosted demand for gold.

Easy credit conditions increase the risk of a credit bubble, which could lead to investors mispricing risk.

We are underweight stocks except for defensive sectors, and overweight cash, gold, and short-term financial assets.

Acknowledgments

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S&P 500 weakens and gold rallies

Key Points

  • The S&P 500 closed above 6300 for the first time, supported by strong liquidity
  • But declining Trend Index peaks warn of a retracement
  • Consumer Confidence remains weak, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index signals a recession
  • Gold and silver rallied as the dollar weakened

The S&P 500 closed above 6300 for the first time, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 6100.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also signals weakness, with declining Trend Index peaks indicating selling pressure.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Broad DJ US Index (red) has underperformed the DJ World ex-US index (blue) over the past six months.

DJ US Index ($DJUS) & DJ World ex-US ($W2DOW)

Financial Markets

Financial markets grow increasingly supportive, with the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) declining to -0.54. Values above zero are considered restrictive.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Bitcoin has retraced slightly from resistance at $120K, but still signals bullish market conditions.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

10-Year Treasury yields declined to 4.35%, but rising Trend Index troughs signal continued buying pressure.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Economy

Consumer confidence remains low, with the Conference Board index declining by 5 points to 93, similar to levels during the 2020 pandemic.

June’s retreat in confidence was shared by all age groups and almost all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, with the largest decline among Republicans.

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined to 99.8% in June. Six-month growth in the LEI (blue) fell to an annualized -5.6%, below the -4.1% that signals a recession (marked in red).

Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Recession Signals

The black line on the above chart indicates negative growth in more than 50% of the LEI components below over the past six months. A broad decline confirms the recession signal.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Components

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar Index retreated below support at 98, signaling another decline. A breach of support of 96.50 would strengthen our long-term target of 90.

Dollar Index

Gold rallied to test resistance at $3,400 per ounce. A breakout above $3,400 would offer an immediate target of $3,500 and strengthen our year-end target of $4,000.

Spot Gold

Silver is testing resistance at $39 per ounce. A breakout would offer a target of $42, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of stubborn resistance.

Spot Silver

Conclusion

The S&P 500 closed at a new high, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure.

The Dow Industrial Average respected resistance at 45,000, failing to confirm the S&P 500 bull market signal.

Financial market conditions indicate strong liquidity, but consumer confidence is weak, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index signals a recession.

The US Dollar Index retreated below support at 98, triggering a rally in gold and silver. A gold breakout above $3,400 would offer an immediate target of $3,500 and strengthen our year-end target of $4,000. A silver breakout above $39 would offer a target of $42, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of stubborn resistance.

Acknowledgments

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Long bonds fall as CPI rises, stocks and gold remain bullish

Summary

  • Global long bond yields are rising, driven by fears over government debt levels
  • A sharp jump in services CPI warns of rising inflation in the broad economy
  • Strong liquidity boosts demand for stocks and for gold

Global long bond yields are rising, driven by fears over government debt levels.

Japan’s 30-year JGB yield jumped to a record 3.20% on Tuesday as opposition parties favoring tax cuts and loose monetary policy are expected to gain influence after the July 20 election. (Reuters)

German 30-year government bond yield is testing resistance at 3.26%, the highest since 2011. Investor concerns are focused on increased debt issuance—to fund defense and infrastructure spending—and rising international rates. (Reuters)

The 30-year US Treasury yield is testing resistance at 5.0%, the highest since 2007. The monthly charts below provide a long-term perspective.

30-Year Treasury Yield

10-year Treasury yields are expected to follow, testing resistance at 5.0%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Rising yields are driven more by long-term structural issues than immediate concerns over an uptick in inflation.

CPI Inflation

CPI growth jumped to 2.7% for the twelve months to June, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.9%.

CPI & Core CPI - Annual

Sticky price CPI and the 16% trimmed mean, reflecting underlying inflationary pressures, jumped to 2.5% and 3.2% respectively.

Sticky CPI

More surprising was the sharp rise in CPI for services, excluding shelter, which is less affected by tariff increases than goods. The June figure is close to a 7.0% annual growth rate.

CPI Services excluding Shelter Rents

This confirms the earlier ISM Services PMI, which showed a sharp rise in the Prices sub-index in May and June. According to the ISM, fourteen of eighteen service industries reported increased prices paid in June. (ISM)

ISM Services Prices

Energy

Energy CPI showed negative growth for the twelve months to June, contributing significantly to the overall low headline CPI rate.

CPI & CPI Energy - Annual

Shelter

Shelter CPI comprises 35% of headline CPI. However, compared to the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index below, we find the index highly artificial and misleading.

CPI Shelter

Food

Food CPI growth increased in June to an annualized rate of 3.8%.

CPI Food

Stocks

The S&P 500 eased slightly in response to the CPI increase, but this is hardly noticeable on the monthly chart below.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated from resistance at 45K. However,  rising Trend Index troughs signal long-term buying pressure, and a breakout above 45K would confirm the S&P 500 bull market signal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Financial Markets

Moody’s Baa Corporate bond spread declined to 1.73% after a sharp spike in March-April, indicating ready credit availability.

Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spreads

The uptrend in Bitcoin indicates strong animal spirits, which are likely to spill over to stocks.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Dollar & Gold

The US Dollar Index is retracing to test resistance at 100 on the monthly chart below. Respect will likely confirm another decline, and our target of 90.

Dollar Index

Gold is consolidating in a bullish pennant on the monthly chart. Rising Trend Index troughs also signal buying pressure. A breakout above 3450 would strengthen our target of 4000 by year-end.

Spot Gold

Conclusion

Long bond yields are rising due to concerns over precarious public debt levels and growing fiscal deficits.

Inflation is still a secondary consideration, but a sharp rise in the CPI for services in June warns of higher inflation in the broader economy. Services are less impacted by tariffs, which are only likely to affect CPI after current pauses have expired and tariff rates are settled.

Liquidity remains strong, supporting high stock prices. A Dow Jones Industrial Average breakout above 45K would confirm the S&P 500 bull market signal.

Demand for gold is also strong, and a breakout above $3,450 per ounce would signal another advance, strengthening our target of $4,000 by year-end.

Acknowledgments

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Bitcoin blast-off bullish for S&P 500

Summary

  • Bitcoin reaches a new high
  • The bullishness is expected to spill over into stocks

Bitcoin blasted through resistance at 110K, reaching a new high at 117.6K, signaling a surge of animal spirits in financial markets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

The result is bound to be bullish for US stocks. The S&P 500 recovered above 6250, while higher Trend Index troughs signal buying pressure.

S&P 500

A breakout of the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 45K would confirm the S&P 500 bull market signal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index decreased to -0.51 on July 4, signaling easy monetary conditions.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Dollar & Gold

The US Dollar Index is retracing to test resistance at 98. Respect will likely confirm the downtrend. Our target is 90.
Dollar Index

Gold continues its bullish consolidation between 3200 and 3430. An upward breakout would strengthen our target of 4000 by year-end.

Spot Gold

Silver broke out from its recent pennant consolidation at 36, offering a short-term target of 39. Rising Trend Index troughs indicate buying pressure.

Spot Silver

Conclusion

Bitcoin warns of a sharp rise in bullish sentiment.

A Dow breakout above 45K would confirm a bull market.

This reminds us of the final leg of the bull market during the Dotcom bubble, from 1999 to 2000. It was great for traders but terrible for investors.

Acknowledgments

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S&P 500 breakout but no buy signal

Summary

  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout
  • Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening
  • But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession
  • The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high levels of uncertainty

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 6100 to reach a new high. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but respect will likely signal a fresh advance.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has also reached a new high.

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)

However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lags and has not yet confirmed the new breakout.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The broad Dow Jones US Index (DJUS) still lags the DJ World-x-US Index (W2DOW).

DJ US Index ($DJUS) & DJ World ex-US ($W2DOW)

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.51 on June 20, signaling improving financial conditions.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

10-year Treasury yields declined to 4.25%, providing further support for stocks.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Economy

The Conference Board’s leading economic index (LEI) declined to 99.0% in May. Six-month growth in the LEI (blue) fell to an annualized -5.4%, below the -4.1% that triggers a recession signal (marked in red).

Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Recession Signals

The black line on the above chart indicates negative growth in more than 50% of the LEI components over the past six months, which confirms the recession signal.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Components

Manufacturers’ new orders, excluding defense and aircraft, are one of the few LEI components that did not decline over the past 6 months. However, they show a steep long-term downtrend when adjusted for inflation (PPI for capital goods).

Manufacturing New Orders: Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft/PPI for Capital Equipment

New orders for consumer goods, adjusted by CPI, are also declining.

Manufacturing New Orders: Consumer Goods/CPI

Dollar & Gold

The dollar continues to weaken, with the US Dollar Index breaking support at 98 to confirm our target of 90.

Dollar Index

Gold is consolidating between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of secondary selling pressure, and another test of support at $3,200 is likely. Respect of support would signal another test of resistance at $3,500.

Spot Gold

Silver is consolidating in a narrow pennant at $36 per ounce. A retracement to test the new support level at $34 remains likely, but follow-through above $37 would signal another advance.

Spot Silver

Conclusion

A breakout of the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 45K would signal another advance for stocks, but the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession. Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods and consumer goods both display long-term weakness.

10-year Treasury yields softened to 4.25%, and financial conditions are easing, supporting stock prices. However, a declining dollar and strong gold price continue to warn of uncertainty. We don’t see this as a buy opportunity for investors; extreme stock valuation levels continue to warn of elevated risk of a significant drawdown.

Acknowledgments

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Big Beautiful Bill threatens bond market blowout

Summary

  • The bond market reacted to the record tax and spending bill in Congress that extends tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy
  • The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the bill would add between $3.3 trillion and $5.2 trillion to the US federal debt, depending on whether policymakers extend temporary provisions
  • A weak bond auction lifted long-term yields
  • The dollar fell, while gold climbed above 3300

I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.

~ James Carville, political consultant and lead strategist for Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign.

10-Year Treasury Yield
Weak bond auction

A $16 billion auction of 20-year Treasury bonds on Wednesday attracted less than usual interest, with yields rising to 5.127% after the auction.

“We’ve seen several soft 20-year bond auctions and it has a checkered history as a benchmark issue,” said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies in New York. “This one was not one of the best by any stretch of the imagination, but it also wasn’t one of the worst.”

Simons said while the auction was “far from a disaster,” it showed there was not going to be a reversal in the sell-off at the long end of the yield curve anytime soon. (Reuters)

Why is this a problem?

Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist, responded to a question on CNBC:  Is 4.58% on the 10-year a problem for the bond market?

It’s not so much the level that matters, it’s the “Why?” If this was driven by the growth trajectory, that would be great. But the fact is it’s driven by uncertainty with regard to inflation, and the Fed’s expected reaction. The wattage on the spotlight aiming at the debt and deficit has been turned up. The investor class cares deeply about this issue but the average voter can’t even conceptualize what 30-plus trillion dollars means and doesn’t tend to vote based on this. This spotlight on the issue is a good thing and will increase the chance that something gets done.

President Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill

The House Rules Committee advanced President Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill late Wednesday after 21 hours of debate and amendments, sending the legislation to the floor where it is expected to receive a final vote early Thursday morning.

The package includes a major spending increase for immigration enforcement and the military, and it would extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which are scheduled to expire at the end of this year. It includes a series of cuts to Medicaid, food assistance, and clean energy funding to pay for the trillions of dollars in tax cuts and new red ink. (CNBC)

The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the bill would add between $3.3 trillion and $5.2 trillion to US federal debt by 2034, depending on whether policymakers extend temporary provisions. (Reuters)

Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, and House Freedom Caucus chair Andy Harris, R-Md., were among the members who met with Trump at the White House Wednesday afternoon, in a hastily arranged effort to convince fiscal hawks to set aside their objections and back the deficit-exploding package of tax cuts.

Meanwhile, markets tumbled on concerns that Trump’s spending bill would pass, leading to exploding federal deficits and weaker long-term fiscal health. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond hit 5.09%. (CNBC)

The Dollar & the Dow

The dollar weakened, with the US Dollar Index breaking below 100. Follow-through below 98 would warn of a long-term decline with a target of 90.

Dollar Index

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below its former primary support level at 42K. A follow-through below 41.5K would close the recent gap, signaling another test of primary support at 37K.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Financial Markets

Recent weakness comes despite a sharp recovery in liquidity, with the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index falling to -0.58.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Bitcoin also reached a new high of 110K, signaling a sharp increase in risk appetite in financial markets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Gold & Physical Demand

Gold climbed above 3300, headed for a test of the resistance band between 3400 and 3500. A breakout would strengthen our target of 4000 by the end of 2025.

Spot Gold

A 700% year-over-year spike in COMEX physical gold deliveries in May 2025 (16,000 contracts, $5.3 billion), the largest in history, reflects unprecedented physical demand from institutions, possibly including the US government or Treasury. Despite the recent correction, gold’s rally to 3300 demonstrates resilience, with physical demand overwhelming paper price suppression. (Andy Schectman)

Conclusion

President Trump’s “big, beautiful tax bill” threatens a bond market revolt, with a steep rise in long-term Treasury yields if passed. The 10-year Treasury yield respected support at 4.5%, warning of a test of resistance at 5.0%.

Rising long-term yields would likely cause a sharp fall in the Dow and S&P 500.

The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the bill would add between $3.3 trillion and $5.2 trillion to US federal debt by 2034, depending on whether policymakers extend temporary provisions.

The dollar is weakening, and breakout of the US Dollar Index below 98 would confirm a long-term decline with a target of 90.

Gold is rising, and a breakout above 3500 would strengthen our long-term target of 4000 by the end of 2025.

Acknowledgments

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