Tag: Dollar Index

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Gold tests key support as the dollar rises

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes rallied off support at 2.50 percent. Follow-through above 2.75 would indicate a fresh primary advance, with a target of 3.50 percent*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 2.50.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 3.50

Dollar Index

Rising interest rates would strengthen the dollar. The Dollar Index respected support at 79, suggesting a rally to resistance at 84. Breach of the rising trendline, however, still warns of trend weakness, and 13-week Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line (from below) would strengthen the warning.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 79 – ( 84 – 79 ) = 74

Gold

Rising interest rates and a stronger dollar would weaken gold. Spot gold is testing primary support at $1250/ounce. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a primary down-trend; breach of $1250 would strengthen the signal, while follow-through below the June low of $1200 would confirm. Respect of support at $1250 is less likely, but would indicate another test of $1350.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1250 – ( 1350 – 1250 ) = 1150

Silver is similarly testing support at $20.50/ounce. Breach would signal a decline to $18/ounce. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Spot Silver

Crude Oil

Nymex crude is undergoing a strong correction. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum crossing to below zero warns of reversal to a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at $86/barrel would confirm. Until then, however, Nymex remains in a primary up-trend. Diverging Brent crude reflects both a strengthening European recovery and continued supply threats in the Middle East.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodity Prices

China is a primary driver of commodity prices and a weakening Shanghai Composite Index is driving commodity prices lower. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index broke primary support at 124, offering a target of 114*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero also suggests a continuing down-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 124 – ( 134 – 124 ) = 114

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Will dollar support stem gold & silver rise?

The Dollar Index found support at the 2012 low of 79 and is likely to test resistance at 80.50. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend, with a medium-term target of 77.50*. Breakout above 80.50 is unlikely, but would indicate strong support. The falling dollar is expected to boost gold and commodity prices.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 79 – ( 80.5 – 79 ) = 77.5

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes found support at 2.50 percent and is expected to rally to test the descending trendline at 2.60 percent. Respect would signal a decline to 2.40 percent. Falling yields depress the dollar while lowering the opportunity cost of holding precious metals; both increasing upward pressure on gold. Respect of primary support at 2.40, however, would warn of an advance to 3.60 percent.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.40 ) = 3.60

Gold

Spot gold is testing resistance at $1350/ounce. Breakout would indicate a primary advance to $1600*, while follow-through above $1425 would confirm. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support at $1250.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1425 + ( 1425 – 1250 ) = 1600

Silver is similarly testing resistance at $22.50/ounce. Follow-through above $23 would indicate a primary advance — confirmed if resistance at $25 is broken — while a fall below $22 would re-test primary support.

Spot Silver

Crude Oil

Nymex crude below medium-term support at $98/barrel and 13-week Twiggs Momentum crossing to below zero both warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. But recovery above resistance at $103 would negate this. Divergence of Brent crude reflects both a strengthening European recovery and continued supply threats in the Middle East.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodity Prices

China, a primary driver of commodity prices, continues to offer mixed signals. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered above medium-term support at 2150, suggesting another test of the upper trend channel. A failed swing, or downward breakout from the trend channel, would warn of correction to test primary support at $1950; a bearish sign for commodity prices.

Shanghai Composite Index

Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index continues to test medium-term support at 126. Breach would indicate a test of the primary level at 124. Recovery above 130 still seems more likely — and would signal a primary up-trend. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero, however, would warn of a continuing down-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

Copper prices, bellwether for the global economy, tested 2011 lows at $6800/tonne over the last few months. Prices are now rallying to test resistance — and the descending trendline — at $7500/tonne. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend, as would recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero; a bullish sign for the global economy.

Copper

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Dollar falls and gold rises

The Dollar Index respected resistance at 80.50, breaking below 80 to confirm a primary decline. Breach of the 2012 lows at 79 would confirm a long-term target of 76.50*. The falling dollar is boosting gold prices.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80.5 – ( 84.5 – 80.5 ) = 76.5

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke through support at 2.60 percent, heading for primary support at 2.40 percent. Falling yields depress the dollar while lowering the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, exerting upward pressure on gold. Respect of primary support, however, would warn of an advance to 3.60 percent.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.40 ) = 3.60

Gold

Spot gold recovered above $1300 and its descending trendline on the daily chart, suggesting another primary advance. Breakout above $1350 would confirm, offering a target of 1600*. Respect of resistance, however, would warn of another test of $1250.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1425 + ( 1425 – 1250 ) = 1600

The weekly chart shows how penetration of the September high would signal a new primary up-trend. Strengthened if 13-week Twiggs Momentum crosses to above zero.

Spot Gold

Bullish divergence of 13-week Twiggs Momentum on the Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 280 would confirm.

Gold Bugs Index

Crude Oil

Nymex crude broke medium-term support at $98/barrel. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level, but respect would warn the primary up-trend is over. Divergence of Brent crude reflects both a strengthening European recovery and continued supply threats in the Middle East.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodity Prices

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing medium-term support at 2150. Downward breakout would warn of another correction — a bearish sign for commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index consolidation between 124 and 130 reflects indecision. Breakout will indicate future direction. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a continuing down-trend, while cross to above zero would suggest a reversal.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Dollar bear trap?

The Dollar Index found support at 80. Recovery above 81 would suggest a bear trap. A peak close to zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, indicates a primary down-trend. Reversal below 80 would confirm the long-term target of 76.50*.

A falling dollar would boost gold prices.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80.5 – ( 84.5 – 80.5 ) = 76.5

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes threatens recovery above 2.70 percent, which would signal an advance to 3.40 percent. Failure of support at 2.60 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 2.40 percent.

Rising treasury yields would lift the dollar, while raising the opportunity cost of holding precious metals and exerting downward pressure on gold.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.60 ) = 3.40

Gold

Spot gold continues its correction toward primary support at $1200. Follow-through below $1250 would confirm, while recovery above $1300 would suggest a higher trough and primary up-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaking below zero, however, would indicate continuation of the down-trend.

Spot Gold

Crude Oil

Nymex light crude is edging lower and likely to test medium-term support at $98/barrel. Brent crude is diverging, reflecting continuing tensions over Syria.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodity Prices

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing medium-term support at 2150. Downward breakout would warn of another correction — a bearish sign for commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index shows evidence of a higher trough, however, and recovery above 130 would signal a primary up-trend. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum also suggests a reversal.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Commodity prices: bullish divergence

Commodity prices continue to display weakness, with a tall shadow on the latest Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index weekly candle. But the Shanghai Composite Index is strengthening and bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a reversal. Recovery above 130 would signal a primary up-trend.

Rising commodity prices would be good news for resources stocks.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

Gold

Spot gold respected the declining trendline. Breach of short-term support at $1280 per ounce would indicate another test of primary support at $1200. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum (not shown) peak below zero would be a strong bear signal. Respect of support, followed by recovery above the recent high of $1330 is unlikely but would complete a small double-bottom, indicating the correction is over.

Spot Gold

Crude Oil

Nymex light crude followed through below $102/barrel after breaking support at $103, confirming a test of medium-term support at $98/barrel. The wider spread with Brent Crude reflects continuing tensions over Syria which threaten supply.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is consolidating below its new resistance level of 80.50. Follow-through below 80 would confirm the primary down-trend. The 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero also signals a down-trend. Recovery above 81 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

A falling dollar would boost gold prices.

Dollar Index

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is consolidating between 2.60 and 2.70 percent. Recovery above 2.70 would signal an advance to 3.40 percent. Failure of support, however, would warn of a test of 2.40 percent.

Rising treasury yields would raise the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, exerting downward pressure on prices.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.60 ) = 3.40

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Gold breaks support

Spot gold broke support at $1300/ounce, indicating a test of the primary level at $1200/ounce. Follow-through below $1270 would confirm. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would be a strong bear signal.

Spot Gold

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is consolidating below the recent primary support level of 80.50. Follow-through below 80 would confirm the primary down-trend. The 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero also signals a down-trend. Recovery above 81 is most unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

A falling dollar would boost gold prices.

Dollar Index

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes found short-term support at 2.60 percent. Recovery above 2.70 would signal an advance to 3.40 percent. Failure of support, however, would warn of a test of 2.40 percent.

Rising treasury yields would raise the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, exerting downward pressure on prices.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.60 ) = 3.40

Crude Oil

Nymex light crude broke support at $103/barrel and its rising trendline, warning of a test of medium-term support at $98/barrel. The wider spread with Brent Crude is an indication of continuing tensions over Syria which threaten supply.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodities

Commodity prices continue to fall, with the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index headed for another test of primary support at 124 despite a resilient Shanghai Composite Index. Recovery above 130 is unlikely at present, but would confirm the earlier double-bottom reversal and a primary up-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Dollar and Treasuries likely to lift Gold

Spot gold continues to test support at $1300/ounce. Failure of support would visit the primary level at $1200/ounce, while respect would test $1440. Breach of the downward trend channel indicates the primary trend is slowing, but recovery above $1440, and a primary up-trend, seem some way off — as does recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Spot Gold

The two-hourly chart shows breakout above resistance at $1330. Retracement that respects the new support level would signal a rally to test $1375, improving the chances of a bottom.

Spot Gold

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index broke primary support at 80.50, warning of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 80 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero also suggests a down-trend. A falling dollar would boost gold prices. Recovery above 81 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Dollar Index

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.70 percent, warning of another test of 2.40 percent. Penetration of the rising trendline would strengthen the signal. Falling treasury yields are also likely to lift precious metal prices (because of the lower opportunity cost).

10-Year Treasury Yields

Crude Oil

Nymex light crude broke support at $103/barrel and its rising trendline, warning that the up-trend is slowing. A test of medium-term support at $98/barrel is now likely. The wider spread with Brent Crude is an indication of tensions over Syria which threaten supply.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodities

Commodity prices continue to fall, with the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index headed for another test of 124 despite a resilient Shanghai Composite Index. Recovery above 130 is unlikely, but would confirm the earlier double-bottom reversal and a primary up-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Gold tests key support at $1350/ounce

Spot gold is testing its rising trendline and support at $1350. Breach of support would warn that another test of primary support at $1200 is likely. Respect of the trendline, however, remains as likely and would offer a target of $1500*. Breakout above the standard deviation trend channel suggests that a bottom is forming and, although we may see another test of $1200 before this is over, primary support is likely to hold.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1425 + ( 1425 – 1350 ) = 1500

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is retreating for another test of primary support at 80.50, lifting gold and commodities. Breach of the long-term rising trendline would suggest that the primary up-trend is weakening, while failure of support would signal a reversal. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero also favors a down-trend; reversal below recent lows at -2% would strengthen the signal.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex and Brent crude are retreating on easing of tensions over Syria, but are unlikely to break support at $103/barrel and the rising trendline.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

A rising Shanghai Composite Index is likely to lift commodity prices. Recovery above 130 on Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index would be likely to test 135. Follow-through below the present 129, however, would test primary support at 124/125. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would also indicate continuation of the primary down-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Gold hesitates as the Dollar strengthens

Spot gold is testing support at $1380/ounce. Breach would indicate a test of the rising trendline and support at $1350. Penetration of the trendline would warn that the rally is slowing and another test of primary support at $1200 is likely. But respect of the trendline remains as likely, and would offer a target of $1500*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1425 + ( 1425 – 1350 ) = 1500

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index encountered resistance at 82.50. Narrow consolidation or a short retracement would suggest a breakout — and another test of the July high at 84.75. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero favors this, but respect of resistance would again test primary support at 80.50.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude retreated below its new support level at $108/barrel, suggesting a test of the rising trendline and support at $103. Brent crude, however is advancing on the back of rising Middle East tensions and falling Libyan production. Expect resistance at the 2013 high of $118/119. Breach of the rising trendline is most unlikely for both Nymex and Brent — expect the up-trend to continue.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

The Shanghai Composite Index [green line] continues its gentle rise, helping to support commodity prices. But tall shadows on the last two candles indicate selling pressure on Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index. Reversal below 130 would warn of another test of primary support at 124/125.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Commodities rise as the Dollar falls

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is testing primary support at 80.50. Bearish divergence on weekly Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend and breach of support at 80.50 would confirm. Respect of support and recovery above 82, however, would indicate an up-swing to 84.50.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude broke resistance at $108/barrel, as the Syrian conflict threatens to escalate. Expect an advance to $118/barrel*. Reversal below $108 is most unlikely, but would signal another test of the rising trendline. Brent crude similarly broke through $110, offering a target of $120.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

Copper is headed for a test of $7500/tonne. Respect of resistance would indicate another test of long-term support at $6600/$6800. Upward breakout and penetration of the descending trendline would suggest the primary down-trend is ending, while breach of support at $6600 would signal continuation. Momentum oscillating mainly below zero still favors a down-trend.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index
The Shanghai Composite Index bear rally continues, causing a lift in commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index completed a double-bottom reversal, with breakout above 130, offering a target of 135*. Penetration of the descending trendline also suggests the primary down-trend has ended.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

Be cautious, however, as the Shanghai Composite faces resistance at 2150. Reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another primary down-swing; confirmed if support at 1950 is breached.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

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