The Dollar Index continues its downward slide. Breach of support at 97 indicates another decline. The medium-term target is the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold is advancing strongly, having broken resistance at $1260. The immediate target is $1300.
Gold advances as the Dollar falls
The Dollar Index continues its downward spiral. Narrow consolidation at 97 is a bearish sign. Breach of support is likely and would indicate another decline. The primary down-trend has a medium-term target of the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold broke resistance at $1260, signaling another advance, with a target of $1300. Reversal below $1250 is unlikely but would warn of trend weakness.
Gold finds support as the Dollar falls
The Dollar Index crashed on this week’s Trump turmoil. Follow-through below 98.50 confirms a primary down-trend with a medium-term target of the 2016 low at 93.
* Target: 99 – ( 104 – 99 ) = 94
Spot Gold found support at $1250 after Thursday’s retracement. Follow-through above $1260 would indicate another primary advance, with a target of $1300. Reversal below $1220 is unlikely but would signal a primary down-trend.
Trump Turmoil
Discussion of a possible impeachment action against President Donald Trump is rife in the media and seems to have spooked financial markets.
The Dollar Index fell through support at 98.50, signaling another decline. The long-term target is 93.00.
Gold rallied, breaking through resistance at $1250/ounce. Follow-through above $1300 would signal another advance, with a target of the 2016 high at $1375.
Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated from resistance at 21000. Expect a test of medium-term support at 20400. Reversal below 20000 would be cause for concern.
The S&P 500 is headed for a test of medium-term support at 2320. Breach would likewise signal a strong correction.
We are likely to get a secondary correction but I expect the bull market to continue. Impeachment of Trump would be a temporary setback and would make me more bullish on the long-term outlook.
It’s probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out,
than outside the tent pissing in.~ President Lyndon Johnson on FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover whom he mistrusted
Gold hesitates
The Dollar Index rally ran into resistance at 100. Reversal below last week’s low would signal a medium-term decline to 94*.
* Target: 99 – ( 104 – 99 ) = 94
Spot Gold found short-term support at $1220. Recovery above $1250 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend but a test of $1200 is more likely and breach would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.
Gold falls despite weak Dollar
Commodities are falling, with the DJ-UBS Commodity Index testing support at 82.
Despite the Dollar Index breaking support at 100.
Spot Gold followed, breaking medium-term support at $1240/$1250. A test of primary support at $1200/ounce is now likely.
Breach of $1200 would signal a primary down-trend. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend. I still view gold stocks as a form of “Trump insurance” and am reluctant to part with exposure to this sector.
Weak Dollar strengthens gold outlook
The Dollar Index broke support at 100 despite strengthening interest rates, warning of a down-trend. Target for a decline would be the May 2016 low of 93.
China has burned through a trillion dollars of foreign reserves in the last 3 years, attempting to support the yuan. I believe the sell-off is unlikely to abate and plays a major part in the Dollar’s weakness.
A falling Dollar would strengthen demand for gold. Spot Gold is retracing from resistance at $1300/ounce and is likely to find support at $1240/$1250. Respect of support would suggest another advance; confirmed if gold breaks $1300.
Spot Silver displays a more bearish medium-term outlook, however, with a stronger correction testing support at $17.00/ounce. Breach of support would test the primary level at $15.65 and warn of further gold weakness.
Gold advance likely
The Dollar Index continues to test support at 100 despite strengthening interest rates. China’s sell-off of foreign reserves to support the Yuan may be contributing to this weakness.
Spot Gold is consolidating below resistance at $1300/ounce. A more confrontational US foreign policy is contributing to global uncertainty and demand for precious metals.
Breakout above $1300 is likely and would signal a test of the 2016 high at $1375.
Gold surges on North Korea fears
The Dollar Index is testing support at 100 on fears of further escalation in the stand-off with North Korea.
Spot Gold broke resistance at $1260/ounce, offering an immediate target of $1300. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero signals resumption of the primary up-trend.
Gold benefits from Dollar fall
The Dollar Index continues its downward path, having breached support at 100. Follow-through below the rising trendline at 99 would warn of a test of primary support at 93.
Spot Gold has benefited. Currently testing resistance at $1250/ounce, narrow consolidation is a bullish sign. Follow-through above $1260 would confirm a target of $1300. Crossover of 13-week Momentum to above zero is also bullish, suggesting a primary up-trend.
