Bernard Connolly: Why the Euro Crisis Isn't Over | WSJ.com

From Brian Carney’s weekend interview with Bernard Connolly:

…But even if the Greeks were undisciplined, he says, “both the sovereign-debt crisis and the banking crisis are symptoms, not causes. And the underlying problem has been that there was a massive bubble generated in the world as a whole by monetary policy—but particularly in the euro zone” by European Central Bank policy.

The bubble formed like this: When countries such as Ireland, Greece and Spain joined the euro, their interest rates immediately dropped to near-German levels, in some cases from double-digit territory. “The optimism created by these countries’ suddenly finding that they could have low interest rates without their currencies collapsing, which had been their previous experience, led people to think that there was a genuine rate-of-return revolution going on,” he says.

There had been an increase in the rates of return in Ireland “and to some extent in Spain” in the run-up to euro membership, thanks to structural reforms in those countries in the pre-euro period. But by the time the euro rolled around, money was flowing into these countries out of all proportion to the opportunities available…..

Read more at The Weekend Interview with Bernard Connolly: Why the Euro Crisis Isn't Over – WSJ.com.

The eurozone’s double-dip recession is entirely self-made. | EUROPP

Good comparison of relative unit labor costs for EZ countries in this article by Paul De Grauwe. Germany is lowest at 85-90. Greece and Portugal highest at 110-115, with Italy, Spain and Belgium next at 105-110. Ireland has made the most spectacular recovery, falling to 95 from a high 115-120 in 2007.

The position of Germany stands out. During 1999-2007, Germany engineered a significant internal devaluation that contributed to its economic recovery and the build-up of external surpluses.

via The eurozone’s double-dip recession is entirely self-made. | EUROPP.

IMF: Coping with high debt and sluggish growth [video]

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries.

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[time: 38 minutes]

ECB Unveils Bond-Buying Program – WSJ.com

By GEOFFREY T. SMITH

The ECB will buy in the secondary market only government bonds with remaining maturities between one and three years without announcing any limits in advance, and as long as the government in question is under a program approved by the euro zone.

The measures will primarily benefit fiscally troubled countries like Spain and Italy, which are facing difficulties financing their budget deficits…

via ECB Unveils Bond-Buying Program – WSJ.com.

The work of John Maynard Keynes shows us that counter-cyclical fiscal policy and an easing of austerity may offer a way out of the Eurozone crisis. | EUROPP

Simon Wren-Lewis, professor at Oxford University and a Fellow of Merton College, says the ECB failed to undertake quantitative easing at the appropriate time because of mis-diagnosis of the problem:

The story told by many is that the Eurozone crisis is a result of fiscal profligacy in some countries, and the need to put that right quickly because of market pressure. This account misses two essential underlying causes of the crisis, which have to be recognised if a solution is to be found. The first missing element ….. private sector demand was too strong, encouraged by large capital inflows from abroad and real estate bubbles…..The second key feature of the current crisis is also a result of excess private sector demand in periphery countries, and that is a banking crisis.

……There is an underlying pattern behind Eurozone policy errors. They reflect a view that macroeconomic difficulties are primary due to bad government decisions, while private sector decisions within a free market environment do not create problems. Whatever label we want to give this view (Ordoliberal or Anti-Keynesian), it is the fundamental cause of the current Eurozone crisis. Its persistence despite all the contrary evidence allows the crisis to continue and threatens the integrity of the Eurozone itself.

via The work of John Maynard Keynes shows us that counter-cyclical fiscal policy and an easing of austerity may offer a way out of the Eurozone crisis. | EUROPP.

Germany backs Draghi bond plan against Bundesbank – Telegraph

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,
9:39PM BST 20 Aug 2012

“A currency can only be stable if its future existence is not in doubt,” said Jörg Asmussen, the powerful German member of the ECB’s executive board. He signalled full backing for the bond rescue plan of ECB chief Mario Draghi, brushing aside warnings from the German Bundesbank that large-scale purchases would amount to debt monetisation and a back-door fiscal rescue of insolvent states in breach of EU treaty law.

via Germany backs Draghi bond plan against Bundesbank – Telegraph.

Italian's Job: Premier Talks Tough in Bid to Save Euro – WSJ.com

Only the ECB has the necessary firepower to move the market. Senior German officials say the ECB’s help is what [Italian premier Mario] Monti has really been after all along. The Italian leader is convinced that the June 28 summit provided political cover for the ECB to take bold action, in the knowledge that euro-zone governments—including Germany—won’t oppose it.

“I have no doubt that the night before the disintegration of the euro, the ECB will do whatever is necessary to save it,” Mr. Monti says. “The question is: Do we need to get to the night before?”

via Italian’s Job: Premier Talks Tough in Bid to Save Euro – WSJ.com.

Roubini Says 2013 `Storm' May Surpass 2008 Crisis

Nouriel Robini on Bloomberg TV: The Euro summit was a failure… markets were expecting much more. Either you have debt neutralization [EFSF purchases of government bonds] or debt monetization by the ECB or EFSF/ESM be doubled or tripled using leverage ….or you will have a worse crisis in the next few weeks.

The ability of politicians to kick the can down the road will run out of steam in 2013…..next year could be a global perfect storm

Bloomberg TV: Roubini Says 2013 `Storm’ May Surpass 2008 Crisis

Merkel Concessions at Euro Crisis Summit Smarter than they Seem – SPIEGEL ONLINE

Christian Rickens: Merkel’s concession is more than compensated for by a diplomatic victory she scored in the run-up to the summit: Late last week, she managed to get new French President François Hollande to sign off on her fiscal pact, which is deeply unpopular in Paris, in return for her support on the €130 billion ($165 billion) European Union “growth pact.”

The inequality of the deal is difficult to overstate. The growth pact is made up of little more than empty promises and dreams that can never come true. Though it won’t spur any growth in Europe, at least it won’t cost Germans any more money either.

Should one be looking for a summit loser, in fact, it necessary to look no further than Hollande. Not Angela Merkel. She merely did what she always does on the EU stage. She made compromises. And pretty clever ones at that.

via Merkel Concessions at Euro Crisis Summit Smarter than they Seem – SPIEGEL ONLINE.