Moscow’s MICEX index plunged over the last two weeks as tensions rise over the fate of Crimea and the Ukraine.
Countries neighboring Ukraine, such as Poland, have also suffered from increased uncertainty. The Warsaw WIG index is testing primary support at 50,000. Follow-through below 49,500 would signal a primary down-trend.
Germany’s DAX is also testing primary support, at 9000. Failure would signal a primary down-trend. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure.
Rising DAX Volatility, above 20, reflects moderate risk.
The Footsie is headed for another test of primary support (6400) after breaking 6700. Breach would signal a down-trend, but respect of support remains as likely.
* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200
A monthly chart shows the Euro testing its long-term descending trendline at $1.39. Follow-through above $1.39 seems incongruous at present, but would signal an advance to $1.44*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to warn of medium-term weakness, however, and reversal below $1.37 would indicate another correction.
* Target calculation: 1.36 + ( 1.36 – 1.28 ) = 1.44
