credit default swaps Archives - the patient investor

May 26, 2013

Two cheers for higher Japanese bond yields in the spirit of Milton Friedman | The Market Monetarist

Market monetarist Lars Christensen gives an insight into rising Japanese (JGB) bond yields:

…..the markets do not think that the Japanese government is about to go bankrupt. In fact completely in parallel with the increase in inflation expectations the markets’ perception of the Japanese government’s default risk have decreased significantly. Hence, the 5-year Credit Default Swap on Japan has dropped from around 225bp in October last year just after Mr. Abe was elected Prime Minister to around 70bp today!

October 29, 2012

Five steps to fix Wall Street

Some more thoughts on the five steps former FDIC chair Sheila Bair suggested to reform the financial system.

Break up the “too big to fail” banks
My take is that breaking up may be difficult to achieve politically, but raising capital ratios for banks above a certain threshold would discourage further growth and encourage splintering over time.
Publicly commit to end bailouts
Just because the bailouts were profitable isn’t a good reason to give Wall Street an indefinite option to “put” its losses to the Treasury and to taxpayers.

As Joseph Stiglitz points out: the UK did a far better job of making shareholders and management suffer the consequences of their actions. Sweden in the early 1990s, similarly demanded large equity stakes in return for rescuing banks from the financial, leading some to raise capital through the markets rather than accept onerous bailout conditions.
Cap leverage at large financial institutions
I support Barry Ritholz’ call for a maximum leverage ratio of 10. That should include off-balance sheet and derivative exposure. Currently the Fed only requires a leverage ratio of 20 (5%) for well-capitalized banks — and that excludes off-balance-sheet assets.
End speculation in the credit derivatives market
Bair pointed out that we don’t get to buy fire insurance on someone else’s house, for a very good reason. How is speculating using credit derivatives any different?

Again Ritholz makes a good suggestion: regulate credit default swaps (CDS) as insurance products, where buyers are required to demonstrate an insurable interest.
End the revolving door between regulators and banks
When regulators are conscious that, with one push of the door, they could end up working for the organizations they are today regulating – or vice versa – “it corrupts the mindset”

A similar revolving door corrupts the relationship between politicians and lobbyists. Enforcing lengthy “restraint of trade” periods between the two roles would restrict this.

via 5 Steps Obama or Romney Must Take to Fix Wall Street.

March 17, 2012

Credit default swaps are insurance products. It’s time we regulated them as such. | The Big Picture

…The law created a unique class of financial instruments [credit default swaps or “CDS”] that was neither fish nor fowl: It trades like a financial product but is not a security; it is designed to hedge future prices but is not a futures contract; it pays off in the event of a specific loss-causing event but is not an insurance policy.

Given these enormous exemptions from the usual rules that govern financial products, you can guess what happened with the swaps. A very specific set of economic behaviors emerged: Companies that wrote insurance typically set aside reserves for expected risk of loss and payout. When it came to swaps, the companies that underwrote them had no such obligation.

This had enormous repercussions. The biggest underwriter of default swaps was AIG, the world’s largest insurer. Without that reserve-requirement limitation, it was free to underwrite as many swaps as it could print. And that was just what it did: AIG’s Financial Products unit underwrote more than $3 trillion worth of derivatives, with precisely zero dollars reserved for paying any potential claim.

via Credit default swaps are insurance products. It’s time we regulated them as such. | The Big Picture.