Commodities Archives - Page 3 of 3 - the patient investor %

September 8, 2011

Aussie Dollar weakens

The Aussie Dollar is testing support at $1.045 against the greenback; failure would warn of another down-swing to parity*. Breakout above $1.075, however, would re-visit $1.10.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.05 – ( 1.10 – 1.05 ) = 1.00

AUDUSD is strongly influenced by commodity prices and closely tracks the CRB Commodities Index. $CRB is rising and breakout above 350 would indicate a primary advance to 385* — suggesting increased support for the Aussie Dollar.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 350 + ( 350 – 315 ) = 385

September 1, 2011

Aussie stronger

The Aussie Dollar followed commodities higher, breaking through $1.06 to signal a test of resistance at $1.10. 63-Day Momentum holding above zero suggests continuation of the up-trend. In the long term, breakout above $1.10 would offer a target of $1.20* — though this is only likely if we see more quantitative easing from the Fed.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.10 + ( 1.10 – 1.00 ) = 1.20

The Aussie Dollar is testing the upper trend channel against its Kiwi counterpart; breakout would warn that the down-trend is weakening. Reversal below $1.245 would warn of a test of the lower trend channel.

AUDNZD

* Target calculation: 1.24 – ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.20

August 25, 2011

Commodities rally

The CRB Commodities Index did not follow gold lower and is testing resistance at 335. Respect of resistance, signaled by reversal below 325, would confirm the primary down-trend — offering a target of 295*. Penetration of the declining trendline is unlikely, but would warn that the down-trend is weakening.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 315 – ( 335 – 315 ) = 295