Here’s What Will Happen When China’s Bubble Bursts

What would a China slowdown mean for the rest of us? In the main, three things will become evident.

  • First, China will remain committed to letting its currency, the yuan, rise in international foreign-exchange markets. A stronger currency will encourage companies to rely less on exports and more on goods and services consumed domestically.
  • Second, Chinese products will no longer be the cheapest on the shelves in years to come because China’s inflation rate will rise along with its wages. This is natural when any nation climbs a rung on the development ladder, which is what China is now doing.
  • Third, the Chinese market for raw materials and heavy equipment—cranes, bulldozers, factory machinery—will slow….

via Here’s What Will Happen When China’s Bubble Bursts.

Terms of trade shock brewing? – macrobusiness.com.au

As a simple exercise to give you some idea of where we’re headed, let’s refer to Rumplestatskin this morning, who shows that iron ore alone represents almost 30% of the export basket that makes up the terms of trade. Coal makes up another large component above 20%:

……So, if we use the conservative Westpac projection of a 16% fall in the value of iron ore and a 5% fall in value of total coal exports (which is obviously a very conservative guess because we don’t know the coking coal weighting), that would translate to a terms of trade fall around 12% in January next year.

via Terms of trade shock brewing? – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.