Australian business confidence is sagging, according to the latest Roy Morgan poll, signaling the end of the post-election bounce*.
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, Dec 2010-Oct 2019. Average monthly sample over the last 12 months=912.
- A decreasing number of businesses (40.7%, down 5.8ppts) expect the Australian economy to have ‘good times’ economically over the next year while 52.4% (up 4.2ppts) expect ‘bad times’;
- In addition, just 44.1% (down 7ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years and 45.9% (up 2.9ppts) now expect ‘bad times’.
RBA interest rate cuts don’t seem to be working.
A similar picture is emerging in the US, where CEO confidence is near recession levels.
CEO confidence affects hiring and investment decisions and is an important leading indicator for GDP and earnings growth.
*Hat tip to Macrobusiness.