Tag: CBOE Volatility Index

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S&P 500 breakout

Narrow consolidation on the S&P 500 weekly chart and completion of a shallow correction on the Nasdaq 100 would suggest a strong up-trend.

The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 1875/1880, signaling an advance to 1950*. Layering above 1850 throughout March reflected strong selling, with bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warning of medium-term selling pressure, but upward breakout indicates that buyers have prevailed. Reversal below 1875 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap — as would a peak below the descending trendline on Twiggs Money Flow.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 found support at 3550 and the (secondary) ascending trendline. Recovery above 3700 would confirm another advance, but continued bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would warn of persistent selling pressure.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3750 + ( 3750 – 3550 ) = 3950

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S&P 500 not yet out of the woods

The S&P 500 rallied off support at 1840/1850 but a weak close warns of further resistance. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) indicates medium-term selling pressure. I have highlighted daily Volume that is more than 1 standard deviation outside the 50-day moving average on the graph below. The latest red bar showed strong resistance at triple-witching hour, but the last two rallies on low volume also suggest a lack of commitment from buyers. Reversal below 1840 would signal a correction. Breakout above 1880 is less likely, but would signal an advance to 1950*.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15, however, continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 below 3600 indicates a correction. Penetration of the (secondary) rising trendline would strengthen the signal. Sharply falling 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, following bearish divergence, warns of strong selling pressure and a test of primary support at 3400/3420. Recovery above 3650 is unlikely, but would indicate another advance.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

Bellwether Transport stock Fedex is headed for another test of primary support at $128/$130. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure and a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would confirm, suggesting a broad economic slow-down.

Fedex

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S&P 500 correction threat

The S&P 500 continues to threaten a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support at 1840 would confirm a correction, while recovery above 1880 would signal an advance to 1950*.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 15, however, suggests low market risk.

VIX Index

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S&P 500 tests resistance

The S&P 500 found support at 1840 and is testing resistance at 1875/1880. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term buying pressure. Breakout above 1880 would signal an advance to 1950*. Reversal below 1840 is less likely, but would warn of a secondary correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 continues to indicate low market risk.

VIX Index

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S&P up-trend still healthy

The S&P 500 retreated below support at 1850, warning of a correction, but the primary up-trend remains strong. Trend strength is depicted by this weekly chart of Ichimoku Cloud, with a buy signal at the start of 2013 and price holding high above a green cloud indicating trend strength.

S&P 500

Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, consistent with a secondary correction, but respect of the rising trendline would signal a healthy up-trend. And recovery above 1850 would offer a target of 1950*.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is rising and a sustained shift above 20 would signal an increase from low to moderate risk.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 also shows bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warning of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline would test primary support at 3400, while respect would confirm a healthy up-trend. Recovery above 3650 would offer a target of 3800*.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

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S&P 500 advance

The S&P 500 found support at 1850, signaling an advance to 1950*. Repeated troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong long-term buying pressure

S&P 500

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to reflect low market risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 respected support at 3600, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support would warn of another correction. Follow-through above 3700, however, would offer a target of 3800*.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

Bellwether Transport stock Fedex found support at $130 on the monthly chart. Breakout above $145 would offer a target of $170*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. A bullish sign for the broader economy. Reversal below $130 is unlikely, but would warn of a decline to $120.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 145 + ( 145 – 120 ) = 170

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S&P 500: Great follow-through

Sellers evaporated as the S&P 500 followed-through above 1860, closing at 1875 on normal volume. Expect an advance to 1950*. The long-term trend is bullish, with repeated 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated below 15, typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

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S&P 500 persistent selling

The S&P 500 broke out above 1850, but the tall shadow/wick reflects persistent selling. The E-mini (Mar 2014) is currently sitting just above 1840. Index breakout below this level would warn of another correction. Follow-through above 1860 is now unlikely, but would signal an advance to 1950*. The long-term trend remains bullish, with repeated 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is likely to rise because of developments in the Ukraine, but below 20 reflects a bull market.

VIX Index

Nasdaq 100 reversal below 3600 would warn of a test of primary support at 3400. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below its recent low would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 3700 seems less likely, but would offer a target of 3800*.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

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S&P 500 at 1850

The S&P 500 continues to encounter stout resistance at 1850. The narrow range, however, reflects buyers commitment. Follow-through above 1860 would signal an advance to 1950*. Reversal below 1825 is less likely, but would warn of another correction. The long-term trend remains bullish, with repeated 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

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Nasdaq leads market higher

The Nasdaq 100 broke through its January high, signaling an advance to 3800*. Retreat below the (secondary) rising trendline is unlikely, but would test primary support at 3400. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough high above zero indicates strong buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

The S&P 500 is testing similar resistance at 1850. Breakout would signal an advance to 1950*. Respect is unlikely, given the Nasdaq breakout, but would warn of another correction. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would be a bullish sign.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 suggests low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

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