CAD Archives - the patient investor

July 27, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Yen, Aussie, Loonie, Rand

The euro is testing resistance at $1.23/$1.24 against the greenback. Breakout above resistance and the descending trendline would warn that the primary down-trend is weakening and a bottom is forming . Negative values on 63 -day Twiggs Momentum continue to indicate a primary down-trend and respect of resistance would favor another decline.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.205 – ( 1.240 – 1.205) = 1.170

Pound Sterling is retracing to find support against the euro. Friday’s doji signals uncertainty. Respect of €1.27 would mean that the up-trend is still accelerating, while respect of €1.255 would indicate a healthy trend.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.26 + ( 1.26 – 1.23 ) = 1.29

Canada’s Loonie is strengthening against the greenback on the weekly chart. Breakout above parity would confirm a test of $1.02*. Fluctuation of 63 -day Twiggs Momentum around zero, between 3% and -3%, would indicate a ranging market.

Index

The Aussie dollar is testing resistance at $1.045/$1.05 against the greenback. Breakout would offer an initial target of $1.08*. Recovery of 63 -day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.05 + ( 1.05 – 1.02 ) = 1.08

The Aussie is also testing resistance at 82/82.50 Japanese yen. Breakout would offer an initial target of 84.50* and a medium-term target of ¥88.

Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 79.50 ) = 84.50

Against the South African Rand, the Aussie is retracing to test support at R8.50. Respect would offer an initial target of R9.00*. Rising 63 -day Twiggs Momentum continues to indicate a primary up-trend.

Index

* Target calculation: 8.75 + ( 8.75 – 8.50 ) = 9.00

February 2, 2012

Forex: EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, JPY, ZAR

The euro remains in a strong primary down-trend. The current rally is testing resistance at $1.32, but 63 -day Twiggs Momentum continues to trend downwards. Breach of support at $1.26 would signal a down-swing to $1.20*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.20

Pound Sterling has breached its declining trendline against the greenback, warning that a bottom is forming. Breakout above $1.62 would complete a double bottom reversal, testing the 2011 high at $1.68.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.62 + ( 1.62 – 1.53 ) = 1.71

Canada’s Loonie also signals that a bottom is forming. Breakout above $1.01 would indicate the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial target of $1.06*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie is testing resistance at $1.08. Breakout would similarly signal a primary up-trend with an initial target of $1.18*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.98 ) = 1.18

The greenback is testing primary support at 76 against the Japanese yen. Breakout would offer a target of 72*. Recovery above the declining trendline, however, would suggest that a bottom is forming — confirming the large bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum — while breakout above 80 would signal a primary up-trend.

Index

* Target calculation: 76 – ( 80 – 76 ) = 72

The South African Rand is strengthening against the US Dollar, while encountering resistance at R8.50 against its Australian counterpart. Downward breakout from the ascending triangle would warn of a correction to test the long-term trendline at R7.50, while breakout above R8.50 would indicate another primary advance, with a target of R9.50*.

Index

* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 7.50 ) = 9.50

November 10, 2011

Aussie and Loonie hurt by dollar surge

The Aussie broke short-term support at $1.02, signaling a test of parity. The descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum “iceberg” warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of parity would indicate another visit to primary support at $0.94. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie “peeked” briefly above parity before retreating to test support at $0.975/0.980. Descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, indicates a primary down-trend. Breach of support would test $0.94; and failure of primary support at $0.94 would offer a target of $0.88*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.00 – 0.94 ) = 0.88

October 20, 2011

Forex overview

The euro is consolidating above $1.365; failure of support would re-test $1.315, warning of another primary decline. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line would confirm a strong primary down-trend.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.40 – 1.32 ) = 1.24

The pound retraced to test resistance at $1.59/1.60 on the weekly chart. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, suggests a strong down-trend. Reversal below $1.53 would offer a target of $1.46*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

Canada’s Loonie resembles the Aussie dollar: reversal below short-term support at $0.975 would test $0.94. Respect of the descending trendline would also warn of a decline to $0.88*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.00 – 0.94 ) = 0.88

The Aussie dollar is testing support at $1.28 against its Kiwi counterpart after completing a double bottom. Respect of support would confirm the target of $1.32*.

AUDNZD

* Target calculation: 1.28 + ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.32

The greenback is ranging in a narrow band above ¥76, supported by the Bank of Japan. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero confirms the strong down-trend.

USDJPY

The greenback recovered above R8.00 on the weekly chart against the South African Rand. Expect another test of R8.50. Upward breakout would warn of an accelerating up-trend that is likely to lead to a blow-off.

USDZAR

* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 7.70 ) = 9.30

September 28, 2011

Commodities point to weaker Aussie and Canadian Dollar

CRB Commodities Index is testing support at 300 and the lower border of its trend channel. 63-day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend. Breakout below the trend channel would warn of a sharp decline, with a target of 260*. Respect is less likely, but would indicate a rally to test the upper trend channel.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 300 – ( 340 – 300 ) = 260

Canada’s Loonie and the Aussie Dollar are both closely linked to commodity prices. A fall in the CRB index would lead to similar falls in the two currencies. CAD breakout below $0.9650 would signal a test of $0.94*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.00 – ( 1.06 – 1.00 ) = 0.94

Both currencies commenced a primary down-trend when they broke parity. An Aussie Dollar breakout below $0.97 would offer an identical target of $0.94*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94

August 25, 2011

Loonie band

The Candian Loonie is consolidating in a narrow band above parity, warning of selling pressure. Earlier penetration of the long-term rising trendline indicates the up-trend has weakened. Breach of support would confirm a primary down-trend, with an initial target of $0.94 against the greenback.

Canada Loonie CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.00 – ( 1.06 – 1.00 ) = 0.94