Tag: Brent crude

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S&P 500 Rallies on Job Gains, But Peace Deal Hopes Crash

Key Points

  • President Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal.
  • Iran continued attacks on its Gulf neighbors.
  • Brent crude July futures jump to $104.50 per barrel.
  • Confidential intelligence sources say that Iran can survive a US blockade for at least 3-4 months.
  • The US labor market added 115,000 jobs in April 2026, while unemployment held steady at 4.3%.
  • The S&P 500 reached a new high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average threatens a breakout.

DUBAI/WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump on Sunday rejected Iran’s response to a US proposal for peace talks, dashing hopes for an imminent end to the 10-week-old conflict….

“I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, without giving further detail. Oil prices rose $3 a barrel after the United States and Iran failed to reach agreement.

Iran’s proposal includes a demand for compensation for war damages and an ​emphasis on Iranian sovereignty over the strait, state media said. It also calls on the US to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and end a US ban on Iranian oil ​sales, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said.

Brent Crude July’26 (Nymex) futures jumped to $104.50 per barrel while December’26 futures (orange) rallied to $89.25 per barrel. December prices reflect the oil market’s longer-term assessment of crude shortages. Damage to existing production and shipping facilities will take time to repair, even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Brent Crude Nymex Futures (July'26 & Dec'26)

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S&P 500 Uptrend Against Gold

Key Points

  • The S&P 500 index made a new high at 7230, reversing its long-term downtrend against Gold.
  • However, the Dow is struggling to break resistance at 50,000.
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates the sector is expanding, but producer prices are soaring.
  • Lithium is in a strong uptrend, while Copper remains rangebound.
  • Japanese intervention to support the Yen underlines the long-term reason for buying Gold.
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Waiting for Godot

Key Points

  • President Trump said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran to allow for further peace talks, but the blockade of Iranian ports continues.
  • According to Tasnim, the Iranian negotiating team informed Pakistani mediators that it will not attend talks in Islamabad on Wednesday, and “there is currently no prospect for participating in the negotiations.”
  • The last oil tankers to traverse the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict started are now offloading their cargoes.
  • Global markets face a crude oil shortage of 10 million barrels per day for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
  • The IEA coordinated release of 400 million barrels from reserves will last 40 days.
  • China halted purchases and released crude from its extensive reserves to minimize disruption, but is expected to resume purchases in weeks.
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More Noise, No Signal

Key Points

  • Following the breakdown of ceasefire talks, President Trump initiated a naval blockade on Monday to pressure Iran to restore access to the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Central Command reported that nine oil tankers from Iran followed orders to turn around since the blockade began.
  • On Wednesday, Iran’s military threatened to block trade through the Red Sea if the United States continues its naval blockade.
  • The White House says the US remains “engaged” in “productive and ongoing” discussion with Iran.
  • President Trump insists the war is “close to over” and  the stock market is “going to boom.”
  • The S&P 500 makes a new high above 7000.
  • Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US “feels good” about the prospect of a deal, but says no date has been set for further negotiations.
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Dire Straits

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures are trading below $100 per barrel, as President Trump says Iran wants to “work a deal.”
  • However, the physical market shows signs of distress, with Forties Blend close to $149 per barrel on Monday.
  • The “genie is out of the bottle,” and the Gulf states are unlikely to settle for a deal that leaves Iran with the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
  • A US blockade of Iranian ports could escalate tensions with China.
  • Lithium miners jumped on sharp increases in EV sales in Europe and other countries that saw steep increases in energy prices.
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Blockade

Key Points

  • President Donald Trump announced a US blockade on Iranian shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Closure of the Strait will restrict 20% of the global oil supply.
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Ceasefire But No Long-term Peace in Sight

Key Points

  • President Trump announced he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran will allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks.
  • Brent crude futures (Jun’26) plunged to $93.86 per barrel.
  • Gold climbed to $4,800 per ounce as the Dollar weakened.

President Trump has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

Truth Social Post

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Jobs Rise but Prices Soar, Growth Slows and Liquidity Tightens

Key Points

  • Non-farm employment jumped by 178,000 in March, well above the expected 60,000.
  • The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%.
  • Growth in aggregate hours worked, however, slowed to 0.4% over the past year.
  • The ISM Manufacturing Prices index jumped to 78.3%, warning of a price shock.
  • Aluminium prices soared to nearly $3,600/tonne due to supply shortages caused by the war in the Persian Gulf.
  • Brent crude closed the week at $109 per barrel, with no end to the Iran war in sight.

The BLS reported a 178,000 increase in non-farm payroll in March, well above the 60,000 forecast. Employment growth has been erratic, averaging less than 15,000 over the past 6 months.

Employment Growth

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Australia Braces for Oil Shortages

Key Points

  • Australia has roughly one month of emergency reserves of petrol, diesel, and gasoline.
  • Iranian attacks will likely lead to supply shortages and steep price hikes in food, commodities, and air travel.

Brent crude futures (May ’26) are testing resistance at $85 per barrel. A breakout will likely offer a short-term target of $90.

Brent Crude

March 5 (Reuters) – More tankers came under attack in Gulf waters on Thursday as the U.S.–Iran war escalated, and Iranian drones entered ​Azerbaijan, threatening to spread the crisis to more oil producers in the region.

A Bahamas-flagged crude oil tanker was targeted by an Iranian ‌remote-controlled boat laden with explosives while anchored near Iraq’s Khor al Zubair port, according to initial assessments. A second tanker at anchor off Kuwait was taking on water and spilling oil after a large explosion on its port side.

Nine vessels have come under attack since the conflict broke out between the U.S., Israel and Iran on Saturday. Iran ​launched a wave of missiles at Israel early on Thursday and also sent drones into Azerbaijan, injuring four people.

….Around 200 ships, including oil and liquefied natural ​gas tankers as well as cargo ships, remained at anchor in open waters off the coast of major Gulf producers, according to Reuters estimates based ​on ship-tracking data from the MarineTraffic platform.

Hundreds of other vessels remained outside the Strait of Hormuz unable to reach ports, shipping data showed.

Australian ​Energy Minister Chris Bowen said on Tuesday that Australia has 36 days of petrol, 34 days of diesel, and 32 days of jet fuel in reserve. While Bowen stressed this was the highest level in more than a decade, it’s far below the International Energy Agency recommendation of 90 days.

Compare that to Japan, which is similarly reliant on crude oil from the Middle East and holds emergency oil reserves equivalent to 254 days of consumption. (Reuters)

Ongoing shortages caused by even partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to fuel rationing in Australia.

Major industries that are heavily reliant on diesel fuel include long-haul road transport, agriculture, and mining. Iron ore operations in the Pilbara region, a major earner of export revenue, alone consume hundreds of millions of liters of diesel each year. (Reuters)

The aviation industry is also vulnerable to fuel shortages. Jet fuel prices in Asia’s ​trading hub Singapore climbed to $225.44 a barrel on Wednesday, a record high.

The spot price of jet kerosene has now gained 140% since the close of $93.45 a barrel on February 27, the day before the United States and Israel launched an aerial bombing campaign against Iran.

The problem is that much of the oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz is medium-sour crude, a grade prized for its higher yield of middle distillates such as jet kerosene and diesel.

Even if refiners can source alternative crudes from Africa or South America, these grades tend to be lighter and yield more light distillates such as gasoline and naphtha. (Reuters)

The Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index has climbed 20% since mid-January.

Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index

Conclusion

Japan and China have large emergency stockpiles of crude and LNG and can probably survive several months of supply interruptions.

India, Australia, and Europe do not have that luxury and will likely suffer from a steep spike in prices and possible fuel rationing if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

In Australia, we expect food prices to jump if the price of diesel, used in agriculture and long-haul freight, rises. Mining costs will also likely rise due to diesel shortages, driving up the cost of materials.

Global aviation is also vulnerable because of the steep rise in jet fuel prices.

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